DIV Bowling Green Regional

braygatron4

braygatron4

Active member
There are 54 teams in the Division IV Boys Basketball tournament that funnel into the Bowling Green Regional. Each year those teams are divided into 4 Districts, & seeding in each District is voted on by the coaches in that District

As history has proven, oftentimes, a team’s District will be tougher than the Regional.
This is because seeding by District will allow weaker teams to make it through to Regionals when they come from weaker districts.

For example, the 8-seed in District A can sometimes be a better team than the 3-seed in District B. But even though the 8-seed May be better, the 3-seed is going to have an easier path to Regionals.

So what I did to fix this annual issue is use RPI (Ratings Percentage Index). RPI is the main metric used to rank teams in the NCAA D1 Men’s & Women’s March Madness tournament. The RPI calculation is:


(win % x .35) + (average opponent’s win % x .35) + (average opponent’s opponent’s win % x .30).

So basically it’s 35% your record, 35% strength of schedule, and 30% opponents strength of schedule.

After the final rankings, these teams are then evenly split into 4 Districts based on those rankings.

Check out my 2 screenshots attached to see how it would’ve shaped our this year!!

8C09E3BC-43D0-404E-BB21-CB43F6AB9DA9.jpeg
EF7162E8-19DA-4192-B14D-D21E7F0E8041.jpeg
 
 
I like it better than what currently happens, but it doesn't work real well in calculating the SOS if a team plays a lot of teams in a higher division.

Findlay's 13-7 is a lot stronger than Fremont St. Joe's 13-7, but the math has the potential to make it out as not being the case.

I am not going to look at the numbers but in theory Findlay's opponents record could be 200-200 and Fremont St. Joe's opponents record could be 200-200, the math would make them appear equal, but we all know Findlay is 30-40 points better than Fremont St. Joe.

At the D3 level last year the team I followed played 6 D1 schools and 1 D2 school.
 
Skynet!

For me these things are easier to grasp in comparison. Appreciate all the work, could it be done for last year? Then a side by side comparison between what was and what could have been?
 
Smalls, I agree 100%! You could definitely add in a points scale similar to Joe Eitel’s Football points, where a win against a 13-7 D1 would carry more weight over a 13-7 D4 team.

eastisbest, it’s very easy to replicate, but it’s time consuming. This one took me a couple weeks. The only input is the schedules & records which just for these 54 teamsI had to compile 376 schedules/records.
 
Yikes, don't do that then.

Not that I get a vote or have a dog in the fight but for discussion purpose, what's you thought on my other comment? You think it will have impact in other areas?
 
Interesting that the top four teams (Columbus Grove, Antwerp, Old Fort, Fort Recovery) in your RPI represent the four districts (Elida, Defiance, Findlay, Wapak) that feed into this year's BG regional. Not sure that would be the case in some other years.

Comparing the top 16 in terms of RPI to the top four seeds as voted by the coaches for each of the four district sites, there are 15 matches.

The Elida district is the strongest. I just don't think that the difference in the strength of the D4 districts is as drastic as in other years.
 
Not sure what you are trying to do with that Table...if each team is supposed to be in their respective District then you have the Defiance District teams spread throughout 3 of those district tables...I must be reading this wrong or do not understand what you are trying to show here....thanks for confusing me...lol
 
Fayette79 said:
Not sure what you are trying to do with that Table...if each team is supposed to be in their respective District then you have the Defiance District teams spread throughout 3 of those district tables...I must be reading this wrong or do not understand what you are trying to show here....thanks for confusing me...lol
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He reconfigured the four districts feeding the BGSU regional based on their RPI's. For 2020, I'm not convinced the reconfiguration is much better than what we actually have. It would add a whole lot more travel time.

I was under the impression that the NCAA (at least for Division 1) does not rely heavily on the RPI but uses their NET rating as well as several other metrics. If the RPI was a heavily weighed factor, there would have been years (post 1999) where the MAC wasn't a one-bid league.

Smalls makes an excellent point comparing records. I also wonder how playing against schools from out-of-state was factored in.

That being said, it's interesting stuff and kudos for the hard work.
 
It will be interesting to see how well the RPI predicts the outcomes once the games start. Especially at the district Semi and Final level when the teams should be more evenly matched and the RPIs are pretty close together.

I know for my NCAA brackets that approach didn't work well the one time I took that approach. ;)
 
Nice work, but if it doesn't have a strength of schedule component it's not really a true measure of teams, especially in D4 where schedule strength can vary so widely. I can guarantee you that Antwerp isn't undefeated playing Fort Recovery's schedule. As it is now, the Wapak and Elida District's will be much tougher to come out of than Findlay or Defiance. I think the Regional champ comes from Wapak or Elida. That being said, Crestview's team from 2019 walks to Columbus if they were playing in the BG regional this year. D4 has a couple strong teams, but nothing like Crestview and overall, I'd say it's one of the weakest overall in a long time. D3 is about the same.....compared to last year, it's just overall a really down year for NW Ohio basketball
 
This is a very interesting breakdown! The BG regional will be fantastic this year.

Toledo Christian
Parkway
Columbus Grove
Old Fort

Is my prediction!
 
Tcgobucks—it does include strength of schedule. 35% of the RPI is strength of schedule, and another 30% is the avg of each of your opponent’s sos..

D1nwobb—the NET Ratings were intro’d last year and the main difference between that and RPI is the NET adds in a scale where you get more points for road wins opposed to home wins and less points for home losses opposed to road losses. I felt home/away doesn’t make a big of difference as much in HS as it does in college. NET also factors in Offense/Defense efficiency & margin of victory (capped at 10pts).

Anyways, yes it’s unfortunate for my argument’s sake that this year the top 4 seeds are in different districts. The whole reason I did this was because I’ve felt this is never the case.

As for more travel time—this is Number 1 issue (per Jerry Snodgrass) with doing tourney this way. I would do a higher-seed home game for sectionals. District sites announced after sectionals and based on proximity to all 4 teams. Now, coaches, players, & fans would all vote to drive farther distances if it meant a more level and fair tourney—unless you’re 3-19 going to play a 19-3 team. However, the fact they’d all be in favor doesn’t really matter because the administrators on the NWDAB are the ones calling the shots and their top priority is making sure academics comes before athletics, which is why they don’t want schools getting home at 11pm-midnight on a week night during tournament play...

My argument for this: under the scenario where the teams use RPI for seeding and district assignments, the average travel time for Sectionals based on those matchups would be 1h 3m. Of the 54 teams, 38 of those have a regular season game on their schedule further than 1h 3m. So what’s the issue having one more? Average travel time for Districts was then 51m, after I picked the District sites based on location. Average travel time for regionals at BG, if top 4 seeds make it, would be 1h 8m. For State, it’s a 2-3 hr drive for all four teams. What would one more game over an hour hurt? Might as well get used to the long bus rides!

Alternate solution: Top 40/54 teams make the tournament. 14 teams eliminated (football does it, why not bball?). This would eliminate Sectional Semifinal double headers and allow games to start at 6pm, which in turn means they get tucked in bed at 9-10 oclock at night.
 
I am going:

Grove vs Antwerp
Fort Recovery vs Arlington

Grove vs. Fort Recovery

Grove to State final four vs. Richmond Heights

To be quite honest, I've seen Grove, Antwerp, Ottoville, Parkway, Fort Recovery, St. Johns, etc. play this year. The two best teams I've seen are Grove and Antwerp (outside of Shawnee who is D2). But, I would pit Ottoville, St. Johns (on a good day), Fort Recovery, and Parkway (on a good day) against just about anyone in the state and call it a crap shoot. That's how good the Elida district and BG regional will be. No, we don't have the past two years of Crestview or the Pandora Gilboa team of two years ago in this BG regional, but we do have multiple undefeated teams walking into this regional and a couple of teams who are extremely hot right now with only a couple of losses.
 
Time for game predictions:

District Semi-Finals:
Toledo Christian over Hicksville
Antwerp over Edgerton
Ottoville over Lincolnview
Columbus Grove over Delphos St. John's
Fort Recovery over St. Henry
Minster over Parkway
Old Fort over Tiffin Calvert
Arlington over Hopewell-Loudon

District Finals:
Toledo Christian over Antwerp
Columbus Grove over Ottoville
Fort Recovery over Minster
Arlington over Old Fort

Regional Semi-Finals:
Columbus Grove over Toledo Christian
Fort Recovery over Arlington

Regional Finals:
Columbus Grove over Fort Recovery

*disclaimer: I haven't seen a bunch of these teams play. just going off of schedules/records/leagues, etc. But, hey, its just fun to make picks
 
16 team lefts in this Regional as Districts start this week. Here’s my predictions

At Defiance
Toledo Christian over Ayersville
Antwerp over Edgerton
Antwerp over Toledo Christian

At Elida
Columbus Grove over Kalida
Ottoville over Crestview
Ottoville upsets Grove

At Wapak
New Bremen over Marion Local
Parkway over Minster
Parkway over New Bremen

At Findlay
Old Fort over Tiffin Calvert
Arlington over Hopewell-Loudon
Old Fort over Arlington

Thoughts?
 
braygatron4 said:
16 team lefts in this Regional as Districts start this week. Here’s my predictions

At Defiance
Toledo Christian over Ayersville
Antwerp over Edgerton
Antwerp over Toledo Christian

At Elida
Columbus Grove over Kalida
Ottoville over Crestview
Ottoville upsets Grove

At Wapak
New Bremen over Marion Local
Parkway over Minster
Parkway over New Bremen

At Findlay
Old Fort over Tiffin Calvert
Arlington over Hopewell-Loudon
Old Fort over Arlington

Thoughts?
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I'll only disagree on Ottoville beating Grove. I have Grove over Ottoville as of now. Parkway has probably the "easiest" path to Regionals which would be the best season they have probably had in a very long time if that happens. They are playing as well as anybody right now.
 
Which was the bigger upset last night, Tiffin Calvert over Old Fort or Kalida over Ottoville. I was shocked the Big Green didn't advance.

Not to mention Edgerton nearly knocking off undefeated and No. 2 Antwerp. Had a shot at the buzzer to win it but missed. Matt Ripke is one of the greatest coaches in NWO. 10 Sectional titles in 11 seasons. 66% Win % with the type of players he gets at Edgerton is equivalent to a bigger school with tons of athletes winning at like an 85% clip.

Another thought: I haven't seen Columbus Grove play this season, but after watching Toledo Christian last night, I don't see anyone beating them. Wow they are impressive. Shooters everywhere, every player is fast, quick, and never tires, they have suffocating defense, unselfish play, and a hell of a head coach. They're my new pick to win the region. Antwerp won't be able to handle their pressure.
 
Also, going off my RPI rankings at the start of this thread, these are the matchups we have remaining.

Defiance: #2 Antwerp vs. #6 Toledo Christian
Elida: #1 Columbus Grove vs. #15 Kalida
Wapak: #36 Marion Local vs. #10 Parkway
Findlay: #8 Arlington vs. #11 Tiffin Calvert
 
braygatron4 said:
Which was the bigger upset last night, Tiffin Calvert over Old Fort or Kalida over Ottoville. I was shocked the Big Green didn't advance.

Not to mention Edgerton nearly knocking off undefeated and No. 2 Antwerp. Had a shot at the buzzer to win it but missed. Matt Ripke is one of the greatest coaches in NWO. 10 Sectional titles in 11 seasons. 66% Win % with the type of players he gets at Edgerton is equivalent to a bigger school with tons of athletes winning at like an 85% clip.

Another thought: I haven't seen Columbus Grove play this season, but after watching Toledo Christian last night, I don't see anyone beating them. Wow they are impressive. Shooters everywhere, every player is fast, quick, and never tires, they have suffocating defense, unselfish play, and a hell of a head coach. They're my new pick to win the region. Antwerp won't be able to handle their pressure.
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Tiffin Calvert knocked out Old Fort last year too. I wasn't all surprised last night - they played them close in both regular season match-ups and have 19 wins themselves. That was the matchup Calvert wanted. The SBC River was fairly decent this year.
 
My predictions:

Grove over Kalida--close for a half--bulldogs pull away 8-10
Toledo Christian over Antwerp-- Toledo Christian starts hot runs away quickly--not overly close
Arlington over Tiffin Calver--Arlington needed a come from behind win--they ride the momentum
Parkway over Marion--low scoring, Kinney kid from Parkway is the difference
 
LetsGoBig said:
My predictions:

Grove over Kalida--close for a half--bulldogs pull away 8-10
Toledo Christian over Antwerp-- Toledo Christian starts hot runs away quickly--not overly close
Arlington over Tiffin Calver--Arlington needed a come from behind win--they ride the momentum
Parkway over Marion--low scoring, Kinney kid from Parkway is the difference
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Bingo. Agree 100%. A shame TC and Grove will be Regional Semis instead of Regional Finals. Just as its a shame that TC & Antwerp have to play in Districts instead of Regionals.. If only there were a way to divide them up evenly based on rankings......Oh wait, I did that at the top of this thread but the NWDAB has their head up their lol
 
Grove
Antwerp
Arlington
Parkway

Antwerp and Grove should be a state semi's game (some believe it'll be TC and Grove but I'll take the two undefeated teams).

Unfortunately for Ottoville, they ran into a conference foe in Kalida who wouldn't be denied. The Elida district has been brutal. The way my Knights were playing, I would have taken them in most other districts in the state to walk into regionals. Lost by 8 to Grove.

The dark horse in all of this is Parkway. They snuck in under the radar of Fort Recovery and from what I said on earlier boards, are a very good team.
 
Tiffin Calvert blasted Arlington, 53-36, and led wire to wire

Antwerp comes back to stun Toledo Christian 55-50 after trailing by 14

Grove battled with Kalida before pulling away for a win

Parkway pulled away in the 4th to down Marion.
 
What a come back by Antwerp. Two of the top 3 teams in the state battling in regional semis. Not sure I remember two undefeated teams going at it in regional semis. What a shame. Two deserving teams. I would say the winner has a solid shot at state champ.
 
cknights said:
What a come back by Antwerp. Two of the top 3 teams in the state battling in regional semis. Not sure I remember two undefeated teams going at it in regional semis. What a shame. Two deserving teams. I would say the winner has a solid shot at state champ.
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Northwest Ohio man, it never disappoints...the other regions have no idea of the dog fight each year
 
RollingTrain said:
Northwest Ohio man, it never disappoints...the other regions have no idea of the dog fight each year
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Northwest Ohio small school sports really don't compare to any other place in the state, maybe even the country. Grove and Kalida (2 schools of less than 300 kids in each high school) absolutely packed out the Elida Field House last night. There's no better atmosphere for big games that I've ever been to.
 
Not sure if the Stroh has ever been sold out for a D4 game, but it's pretty likely this week. Not just the Grove & Antwerp people....but a heck of a lot of other fans from NW Ohio are gonna want to see this one. Get there early
 
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