DIV Bowling Green Regional

There are 54 teams in the Division IV Boys Basketball tournament that funnel into the Bowling Green Regional. Each year those teams are divided into 4 Districts, & seeding in each District is voted on by the coaches in that District

As history has proven, oftentimes, a team’s District will be tougher than the Regional.
This is because seeding by District will allow weaker teams to make it through to Regionals when they come from weaker districts.

For example, the 8-seed in District A can sometimes be a better team than the 3-seed in District B. But even though the 8-seed May be better, the 3-seed is going to have an easier path to Regionals.

So what I did to fix this annual issue is use RPI (Ratings Percentage Index). RPI is the main metric used to rank teams in the NCAA D1 Men’s & Women’s March Madness tournament. The RPI calculation is:


(win % x .35) + (average opponent’s win % x .35) + (average opponent’s opponent’s win % x .30).

So basically it’s 35% your record, 35% strength of schedule, and 30% opponents strength of schedule.

After the final rankings, these teams are then evenly split into 4 Districts based on those rankings.

Check out my 2 screenshots attached to see how it would’ve shaped our this year!!

8C09E3BC-43D0-404E-BB21-CB43F6AB9DA9.jpegEF7162E8-19DA-4192-B14D-D21E7F0E8041.jpeg
 

Smalls

Active member
I like it better than what currently happens, but it doesn't work real well in calculating the SOS if a team plays a lot of teams in a higher division.

Findlay's 13-7 is a lot stronger than Fremont St. Joe's 13-7, but the math has the potential to make it out as not being the case.

I am not going to look at the numbers but in theory Findlay's opponents record could be 200-200 and Fremont St. Joe's opponents record could be 200-200, the math would make them appear equal, but we all know Findlay is 30-40 points better than Fremont St. Joe.

At the D3 level last year the team I followed played 6 D1 schools and 1 D2 school.
 

eastisbest

Well-known member
Skynet!

For me these things are easier to grasp in comparison. Appreciate all the work, could it be done for last year? Then a side by side comparison between what was and what could have been?
 
Smalls, I agree 100%! You could definitely add in a points scale similar to Joe Eitel’s Football points, where a win against a 13-7 D1 would carry more weight over a 13-7 D4 team.

eastisbest, it’s very easy to replicate, but it’s time consuming. This one took me a couple weeks. The only input is the schedules & records which just for these 54 teamsI had to compile 376 schedules/records.
 

eastisbest

Well-known member
Yikes, don't do that then.

Not that I get a vote or have a dog in the fight but for discussion purpose, what's you thought on my other comment? You think it will have impact in other areas?
 

D1nwobb

Member
Interesting that the top four teams (Columbus Grove, Antwerp, Old Fort, Fort Recovery) in your RPI represent the four districts (Elida, Defiance, Findlay, Wapak) that feed into this year's BG regional. Not sure that would be the case in some other years.

Comparing the top 16 in terms of RPI to the top four seeds as voted by the coaches for each of the four district sites, there are 15 matches.

The Elida district is the strongest. I just don't think that the difference in the strength of the D4 districts is as drastic as in other years.
 

Fayette79

Member
Not sure what you are trying to do with that Table...if each team is supposed to be in their respective District then you have the Defiance District teams spread throughout 3 of those district tables...I must be reading this wrong or do not understand what you are trying to show here....thanks for confusing me...lol
 

D1nwobb

Member
Not sure what you are trying to do with that Table...if each team is supposed to be in their respective District then you have the Defiance District teams spread throughout 3 of those district tables...I must be reading this wrong or do not understand what you are trying to show here....thanks for confusing me...lol
He reconfigured the four districts feeding the BGSU regional based on their RPI's. For 2020, I'm not convinced the reconfiguration is much better than what we actually have. It would add a whole lot more travel time.

I was under the impression that the NCAA (at least for Division 1) does not rely heavily on the RPI but uses their NET rating as well as several other metrics. If the RPI was a heavily weighed factor, there would have been years (post 1999) where the MAC wasn't a one-bid league.

Smalls makes an excellent point comparing records. I also wonder how playing against schools from out-of-state was factored in.

That being said, it's interesting stuff and kudos for the hard work.
 

Smalls

Active member
It will be interesting to see how well the RPI predicts the outcomes once the games start. Especially at the district Semi and Final level when the teams should be more evenly matched and the RPIs are pretty close together.

I know for my NCAA brackets that approach didn't work well the one time I took that approach. ;)
 

tcgobucks

Well-known member
Nice work, but if it doesn't have a strength of schedule component it's not really a true measure of teams, especially in D4 where schedule strength can vary so widely. I can guarantee you that Antwerp isn't undefeated playing Fort Recovery's schedule. As it is now, the Wapak and Elida District's will be much tougher to come out of than Findlay or Defiance. I think the Regional champ comes from Wapak or Elida. That being said, Crestview's team from 2019 walks to Columbus if they were playing in the BG regional this year. D4 has a couple strong teams, but nothing like Crestview and overall, I'd say it's one of the weakest overall in a long time. D3 is about the same.....compared to last year, it's just overall a really down year for NW Ohio basketball
 

LetsGoBig

Active member
This is a very interesting breakdown! The BG regional will be fantastic this year.

Toledo Christian
Parkway
Columbus Grove
Old Fort

Is my prediction!
 
Tcgobucks—it does include strength of schedule. 35% of the RPI is strength of schedule, and another 30% is the avg of each of your opponent’s sos..

D1nwobb—the NET Ratings were intro’d last year and the main difference between that and RPI is the NET adds in a scale where you get more points for road wins opposed to home wins and less points for home losses opposed to road losses. I felt home/away doesn’t make a big of difference as much in HS as it does in college. NET also factors in Offense/Defense efficiency & margin of victory (capped at 10pts).

Anyways, yes it’s unfortunate for my argument’s sake that this year the top 4 seeds are in different districts. The whole reason I did this was because I’ve felt this is never the case.

As for more travel time—this is Number 1 issue (per Jerry Snodgrass) with doing tourney this way. I would do a higher-seed home game for sectionals. District sites announced after sectionals and based on proximity to all 4 teams. Now, coaches, players, & fans would all vote to drive farther distances if it meant a more level and fair tourney—unless you’re 3-19 going to play a 19-3 team. However, the fact they’d all be in favor doesn’t really matter because the administrators on the NWDAB are the ones calling the shots and their top priority is making sure academics comes before athletics, which is why they don’t want schools getting home at 11pm-midnight on a week night during tournament play...

My argument for this: under the scenario where the teams use RPI for seeding and district assignments, the average travel time for Sectionals based on those matchups would be 1h 3m. Of the 54 teams, 38 of those have a regular season game on their schedule further than 1h 3m. So what’s the issue having one more? Average travel time for Districts was then 51m, after I picked the District sites based on location. Average travel time for regionals at BG, if top 4 seeds make it, would be 1h 8m. For State, it’s a 2-3 hr drive for all four teams. What would one more game over an hour hurt? Might as well get used to the long bus rides!

Alternate solution: Top 40/54 teams make the tournament. 14 teams eliminated (football does it, why not bball?). This would eliminate Sectional Semifinal double headers and allow games to start at 6pm, which in turn means they get tucked in bed at 9-10 oclock at night.
 

cknights

Active member
I am going:

Grove vs Antwerp
Fort Recovery vs Arlington

Grove vs. Fort Recovery

Grove to State final four vs. Richmond Heights

To be quite honest, I've seen Grove, Antwerp, Ottoville, Parkway, Fort Recovery, St. Johns, etc. play this year. The two best teams I've seen are Grove and Antwerp (outside of Shawnee who is D2). But, I would pit Ottoville, St. Johns (on a good day), Fort Recovery, and Parkway (on a good day) against just about anyone in the state and call it a crap shoot. That's how good the Elida district and BG regional will be. No, we don't have the past two years of Crestview or the Pandora Gilboa team of two years ago in this BG regional, but we do have multiple undefeated teams walking into this regional and a couple of teams who are extremely hot right now with only a couple of losses.
 
Time for game predictions:

District Semi-Finals:
Toledo Christian over Hicksville
Antwerp over Edgerton
Ottoville over Lincolnview
Columbus Grove over Delphos St. John's
Fort Recovery over St. Henry
Minster over Parkway
Old Fort over Tiffin Calvert
Arlington over Hopewell-Loudon

District Finals:
Toledo Christian over Antwerp
Columbus Grove over Ottoville
Fort Recovery over Minster
Arlington over Old Fort

Regional Semi-Finals:
Columbus Grove over Toledo Christian
Fort Recovery over Arlington

Regional Finals:
Columbus Grove over Fort Recovery

*disclaimer: I haven't seen a bunch of these teams play. just going off of schedules/records/leagues, etc. But, hey, its just fun to make picks
 
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