D7 R25 2024

Monroeville?

I’ve been out of it for a few years. I remember them playing JFK when they made playoffs at 3-6 and got pummeled 57-0.

I’m taking it they got better. What’s rhe transformation been? A. Exceptional player or a wholesale program improvement?
 
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Monroeville?

I’ve been out of it for a few years. I remember them playing JFK when they made playoffs at 3-6 and got pummeled 57-0.

I’m taking it they got better. What’s rhe transformation been? A. Exceptional player or a wholesale program improvement?
They were good last season. They brought back most of their team. Plus, the Firelands is not a
very good conference at the moment with NSP and Crestview being mediocre.
 
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NSP was absolutely nasty from 2008-2017
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Definitely had us on the ropes.
 
They were good last season. They brought back most of their team. Plus, the Firelands is not a
very good conference at the moment with NSP and Crestview being mediocre.
So basically just a rare good group of kids. No real change of culture.
 
Monroeville and NSP used to lock horns often. IIRC it’s a legit public v private rivalry (rarity) that had some absolute monster games back in Dubya’s presidency.
 
Now look at the Malvern page. Every scenario has them playing NSP. :D
Then look at the NSP page. Shows them playing either Southern (WW), McDonald (WL), or Malvern (LL).
I think I have the answer to this one.

All of those projections that shows on Malvern’s page as playing NSP regardless of Malvern’s final two results, those percentages are generally low pluralities.

If you look at the Lucas and NSP projected final averages, though, and look at the ranges, it looks like Drew’s percentages (confidence intervals) for who Malvern is likely to play are that low due to a consideration of different L2 outcomes that could, in theory, make Lucas the #11 seed (to play Cuyahoga Heights) and not the #12.

If you look at the Region 25 seeding probabilities page, I noticed that in the table for seed 11 that NSP has the best odds (51:100) to attain the seed. But, they also hold the highest plurality in the seed 12 column at 35%. So we know that NSP is in all likelihood (86% is pretty high lol) the 11 or the 12, but it’s just unclear which one they’ll land on.
 
Part of the confusion/lack of clarity I think is tied to the Lucas/Whiteford game.

Drew’s only projection for that game is Lucas will lose (4-4 record now; projected 5-5) and it appears to be based on the presumed power rating (Lucas ~85, Whiteford estimated 105.)

Drew’s system cannot meaningfully incorporate out of state opponents like Whiteford into predictive powers (spreads/confidence intervals/how the results of a win trickles into L2’s for the broader regional playoff picture) for a whole host of reasons. This is the correct and wisest way for Drew to handle it. He is leaving open the possibility that, were Lucas to win, there would be some L2’s to trickle down and windfall Lucas into the 11 seed.
 
I think I have the answer to this one.

All of those projections that shows on Malvern’s page as playing NSP regardless of Malvern’s final two results, those percentages are generally low pluralities.

If you look at the Lucas and NSP projected final averages, though, and look at the ranges, it looks like Drew’s percentages (confidence intervals) for who Malvern is likely to play are that low due to a consideration of different L2 outcomes that could, in theory, make Lucas the #11 seed (to play Cuyahoga Heights) and not the #12.

If you look at the Region 25 seeding probabilities page, I noticed that in the table for seed 11 that NSP has the best odds (51:100) to attain the seed. But, they also hold the highest plurality in the seed 12 column at 35%. So we know that NSP is in all likelihood (86% is pretty high lol) the 11 or the 12, but it’s just unclear which one they’ll land on.
Theres too many variables right now to untangle from about 10 on down. Malvern is almost certainly going to be the 5 seed. But Independence and/or Fairport winning their week 10 games they are currently projected to lose, but are not huge dogs, would influence how things shake out. Same thing with CH this week in their game against Trinity, where they are slightly favored and a loss could throw them down into that mix.
 
You can get an “idea” of what things “could” look like from Drew’s site but unless everything goes 100% to plan, you have to many variables and percentage points to call anything till week 10 is done and over. Hopefully Hillsdale can stay on the opposite side of Monroeville! I think they will give the Falcons a fight
 
You can get an “idea” of what things “could” look like from Drew’s site but unless everything goes 100% to plan, you have to many variables and percentage points to call anything till week 10 is done and over. Hopefully Hillsdale can stay on the opposite side of Monroeville! I think they will give the Falcons a fight
This is actually pretty straightforward. If Hillsdale loses to Norwayne, they will stay on opposite sides with Monroeville at 3 and Hillsdale at 4. If Hillsdale beats Norwayne, they jump to 1 and Monroeville goes to 4 so they’d be setup to play in regional semi’s
 
Yeah region 25 is loaded for sure. Just keep writing Kennedy off. I mean we haven't played anybody. We shall see. Garfield sucked? Labrae sucks? Lol. Liberty will out run any team in the region. But hey what do I know? Lol. we'll see you big boys in the playoffs.
 
Yeah region 25 is loaded for sure. Just keep writing Kennedy off. I mean we haven't played anybody. We shall see. Garfield sucked? Labrae sucks? Lol. Liberty will out run any team in the region. But hey what do I know? Lol. we'll see you big boys in the playoffs.
Kennedy is very much improved and will end up a top 4 seed but don't kid yourself, the region stinks. Two games tell the tale for the Eagles, Labrae and Rootstown. The Eagles lost one and struggled with the other, both bullied them along the lines. Both teams are not good. Liberty is faster than most of the region but they stink. Garfield has figured it out and might just win in a rematch. Kennedy will probably win a couple of rounds fairly easily. They may even make it to the regional finals, but that isn't the accomplishment that it has been in the recent past.

Teams like Monroeville and McDonald, wing-t teams, will give the Eagles trouble. Labrae went to a modified T in the second half and just rammed the ball down their throat. It will be interesting to watch but I wouldn't bevto hyped over the Eagles just yet.
 
From the Firelands Conference teams, Monroeville was 7-4 last year and returns just about everything — and gets their biggest challenges at home if you believe in that as a factor. On paper they are 8-2 to 10-0 material. Hillsdale and Cuyahoga Heights surely will be in that mix as you mentioned. Hard to know what to make of St. Paul just yet with the coaching transition and schedule.
Bringing this back from April, but will answer the Monroeville questions from what I read and see here recently ... they only had 5 seniors last season, and I think three of them were linemen. They have multiple state placer wrestlers playing key roles for them and their QB/S is deceptively fast. Not a great passer, but man, he can run and plays a great safety.

Their schedule definitely doesn't help them, but I would say while this isn't a "one and done" year for them, this is by far their best window to do anything. It's a very great class at the skilled positions. Solid foundation with coaching, etc. They are still going to be solid for the next several years, but this is THE year with Western Reserve having one senior and St. Paul with four seniors and a new head coach (and a hell of a junior high class coming in). Everything has lined up for Monroeville this year, right down to their schedule as far as who is home and away, etc. Hope they go far!
 
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