CoronaVirus
- Thread starter Purpleaviator
- Start date
Pretty audacious of you to be informed and dispute the over estimates with actual data. Remember on the first episode of Storytime with Amy and Mike, when Amy told us her estimate of 100,000 in Ohio infected and walking around. That was about 2 weeks ago give or take. If true and using your 80% estimate that won't test, subtract 80,000 with mild or no symptoms. The remaining 20,000 who have incubated by now would test positive. We have 700 infected at the moment. In that same episode they preached "we don't want to become Italy". Then Italy's death rate was 7%, worst of any country in the world. Ohio's death rate is 1.5%. Well that must be due to Amy & Mike's efforts. Or maybe it's due to major differences in age demographics, health, and population density, in addition to distancing and testing efforts. Mike's reality is Ohio is woefully underprepared from a resource perspective to handle this and the over estimates were used to sell it.
Same is happening at the national level. The liberal media must be dissappointed in the US 1.4% fatality rate, after their estimates of 3-5%. Something else is waiting in the queue to get the required 2-3 months of shuttering and economic collape. Back to work by Easter is just not going to be accepted without a fight.
Sykotyk
Well-known member
"confirmed"
The US has essentially stopped testing unless you've been admitted to the hospital. There's really no reason to test now. We know it's spreading free out in the world and containment is basically a lost cause.
Testing also requires the person checking you to be protected and those PPE resources are best used for people treating those admitted for severe cases.
The death rate may not be high now, but the problem is we're running out of beds in New York and apparently Atlanta has a similar predicament.
Once new patients can't get treatment they're just going to die. And die more quickly than those who have medical treatment fighting for their lives.
It doesn't take much to inundate our hospitals. We don't need a The Walking Dead type virus to wipe us out to completely wreck our world. This virus is very deadly without treatment. If you can't get treatment. And that's where we're headed.
Flatten the Curve is just hoping we can slow the spread enough that as hospitals admit new patients, earlier patients are now cleared to go home and give up their beds and ventilators to them.
Also, if you think the death totals are low, just remember this virus kills slowly. Both to get symptoms and to succumb to them.
I was listening to WLW radio earlier this week and a Dr. McWilliams (Andy McWilliams sports announcers son) said the virus is a quick acting killer. He has been front and center in the battle with the virus in Seattle.
He mentioned that with the flue patients get weakened then sometimes expire, but with this virus, for unknown reasons, the inflammation can rise so rapidly that they are losing patients in 12 hours after onset of symptoms.
I am in no position to argue with you, but just found what you stated and what I heard to be at odds.
cincifbfan
Well-known member
Not sure it does, DeWine is an ugly dude.
That is my understanding also. I think you're both somewhat correct. Characteristics that I've read/heard include: long incubation, can have it for several days w/out knowing, but can suddenly turn on a dime and become life threatening w/in hours, longer recovery, may cause permanent lung damage, and more contagious.
The asymptomatic conditions being reported with this virus are both encouraging in a sense, but also very troubling as medical pros try to figure out how to stop the spread. I realize, as they have stated numerous times, it is NOT the flu, though everyone likes to compare it to that, but am just curious is it even possible to have and spread "the flu" and be asymptomatic?
Purpleaviator
Member
So will there be a Baseball season or not? How about football? Will it be impacted by this? What are your thoughts?
Well Nancy just bragged about a bill that motivates people to stay out of work until July. Then followed that up by mentioning we may need a 4th and possibly 5th relief bill after that. The goal is to keep this country shut down into the fall. Baseball, funny no chance. Football less than 50/50. Mike and Amy are managing this state like it's NYC.
Massillon#82
Well-known member
No baseball, the kids are not going back to school before August. At this point im not even sure if that will happen, there are things during the summer that are already being cancelled. MAYBE football will start in October if we are lucky.
Yappi
Go Buckeyes
My personal opinion is that we are going to have this under control enough that things start returning to normal in the Summer. The Fall football season will start like normal but we will have some interruptions. But instead of the total lockdown of sports and schools, it will be more narrowly focused like we've seen with Flu outbreaks in the past. A school may have a burst in infections and that school will be cancelling events. I also think that we will have very good treatments that will take the fear out of most parents letting their kids go back to their normal routines.
bkmk1
Well-known member
Opinion: No spring sports. Fall sports are 50/50 at best. And I lean towards probably not. And another concern is if we don't get a vaccine, they predict it will return next flu season.
Paladin1aa
Well-known member
I’m all for our shutdown. But I also recognize the greedy among us will purse the almighty dollar over life or death. That pressure will probably bring some temporary treatments that work while research ramps up for a total cure. Football this fall is questionable, but possible. Unless they have some effective treatments available, probably not. But if they do,some games with limited crowds will happen.
To Yappi's point, as cases are still rising, uncertainty rules the day, and everyone especially healthcare system must prepare for worst case scenario. Once data shows it has plateaued then is decreasing, we will have better certainty regarding healthcare capacity and requirements, and loosen protocols. If that (downward curve) shows by mid-summer (no idea but will be optimistic) I think we'll have football.
Here’s how much Ohio is ‘flattening the curve’ on coronavirus
OSU researchers project Ohio is on target for a peak of new coronavirus cases somewhere in the range of 7,500 to just under 10,000 a day during the first half of April.
www.cleveland.com
“We have through our collective work together in Ohio decreased that impact on our health care system anywhere from 50% to 75%. That’s crucial, but we have got to do it even more,” Acton said.
Things looking a bit better. Stay at home.
Keep in mind that is qualified w/ continued distancing guidelines. It is still March and Potus is already buckling, with a base especially that follows dear, I mean their leader. So we'll see.
The Dock
Persona Non Grata
“Gotta see packed churches for Easter Sunday!”
Just read a few clinical studies. So far studies have indicated warmer weather and higher humidity can slow the rate of infection but not totally do away with it. Up to 90% of usa cases have occurred in places with temps 39-to 69 degrees if I remember correctly. In Singapore and Hong Cong most cases were transmitted due to International travelers. I am hoping for a slowdown when it gets warmer and more humid. Less spread in Australia and it is nearing the end of its summer.
Agree
Thavoice
Well-known member
If there is no vaccine we have a seasonal flu on our hands. So this will remain around. I fully expect our governance to keep us shut down indefinitely until a cure is vetted, approved and to market. History suggests that will be a couple of years away and potentially never. Many on this thread will be appalled if we stop the shuttering while the disease remains around. I trust that includes highschool football in the fall. We've heard continually about spread rate and fatality rate on very thin and incomplete historical data. Flimsy estimates of 100,000k walking around in Ohio with it. I trust we will hold firm and cancel everything until we have a vaccine. Why won't the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th ect. waves spread in the same way this one has, with the same fatality rates. I'm sure we already have the modeling on those waves based again on minimal historical data. Regardless some will die. The question then becomes what is the acceptable infection and death rate for those imposing or agreeing with the shuttering. It has to be none. A complete cancellation of football and every other sport is the only answer here. The only thing keeping this thing in check now are the stay at home mandates.......right. No way can you discontinue now, 80% of the people that have it don't even know it so you can't necessarily used reduced infection counts can you. Pray for the cure or say bye bye to all high school sports. People will have to spend their unemployment checks on video poker for entertainment.
There is nothing greedy about making sure an economy can support jobs, health care and financial security for millions of people.
Sykotyk
Well-known member
Depends how much if at all this virus mutates. This isn't a flu virus that mutates regularly.
If this doesn't mutate, then eventually you'll just have herd immunity just because eventually everyone either had it already or the virus just dies out before infected people infect others not already immune to it.
It also depends if our immunity to this remains for years or diminishes quickly after recovery.
Stow78alum
Active member
Nope to all. No MLB, no NFL, no NCAA, no HS
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Ok, in every outcome you note above it will take years to flesh this out completely, short of a vaccine. My question stands, what's the acceptable death rate to turn this country and highschool sports back on. It can only be zero based on what's happened to date. Any other is unacceptable and complete hypocracy regardless of any decrease in pace. We are not going to see highschool sports for years. Unless by some miracle our righteous media and governance creates a tolerance for Corona deaths.
Ok, in every outcome you note above it will take years to flesh this out completely, short of a vaccine. My question stands, what's the acceptable death rate to turn this country and highschool sports back on. It can only be zero based on what's happened to date. Any other is unacceptable and complete hypocracy regardless of any decrease in pace. We are not going to see highschool sports for years. Unless by some miracle our righteous media and governance creates a tolerance for Corona deaths.
That's if you have complete faith in these estimates. Does the 40k represent tested infections or tested + untested infections, I'm guessing the latter. In either case there's no way to prove the unmitigated number and it looks like the mitigated doesn't agree to the actual data to date. For comparison Texas has closed bars, resteraunts, gyms etc like Ohio, but has not done a statewide shutdown of all non essential business . I was in Houston this past week, I-45 was jammed like any other day. So in a state that has almost 3X the number of people as Ohio, that didn't declare a statewide shuttering of all non essential business, the infection count must be at least 3X Ohio, or more if you believe Acton's chart. As of today Texas has 1.7x the infections as Ohio and 1.4x the fatalities. Maybe Ohio has more tests, maybe Texas can't count, or maybe Acton's chart's and graphs are the best case (or worst case depending on your viewpoints) estimates. This isn't the first time she used an unprovable number (100k infected walking around in Ohio) to support her agrument.
Oh and by the way, if you believe Acton's charts. Once we get on the downward side of the curve, the only way to stay there is to continue exactly what we're doing now, otherwise I guess we get the giant yellow spike. You can forget any highschool sports in Ohio for a long time. Bye bye highschool football, Bye bye Buckeyes. Bye bye Bengals and Browns.
No it can only be pure greed. And by the way it's not possible to manage both. So you can only fall on the side of pro-ecomony or pro-life. If you didn't know that please read the headline from today's Clevelend.com, which I pasted below. What an amazing irony the PD headlining pro-life.
Do we really want to be a nation that puts rescuing the economy from the coronavirus ahead of saving lives
queencitybuckeye
Well-known member
Stop making sense. In addition to your last sentence, the number of people that choose not to get the coming vaccine due to their irrational, scientifically discredited fear of side effects will play a part.