Central Ohio Region D1 Girls

M

mreducation

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Now that we are a little more than half way through this crazy season ... How do you guys see this region stacking up?

I think as of right now the top 5 teams that would qualify to the state meet from this region:

1. Hilliard Davidson - they are winning this region - no question about it.

2. Dublin Coffman - A nice return to form for this historically elite program. I am not sure how many people expected them to be as strong as they are but they are certainly running well.

3. Lancaster - This team has a very nice 1-2 punch and the rest of their scoring 5 are very solid. I could see this team finishing 2nd as well.

4. Olentangy Liberty - They might be a little down from what they have been in recent years but this team is still dangerous and I would bet money when it is crunch time this team shows very well at the Regional meet.

5. Olentangy Orange - This is a mysterious team to me. They have looked very strong and then they have looked average. I think the reality is they are probably somewhere in between but I would expect them to have enough firepower to grab that 5th and final spot and head to the State Meet from this group.

Others:

Thomas Worthington - Not a bad team but lacking the firepower upfront that previous teams had. Not sure if they have enough to supplant the top 5.

Upper Arlington - Quietly starting to make some noise. Could be a factor down the stretch.

Gahanna Lincoln - No real front runner which will hurt them.

Pickerington North - A team that might be a year away.
 
 
Central Ohio D1 Girls appear to be down this year as compared to year's past. And not by a little... by a lot. Except for HD, everyone else I doubt will fare well at the state meet. Last year, central ohio teams took 4 out of the bottom 5 spots at the state meet. The year before, 2018, central ohio teams did better but that was when Granville was D1, they are D2 this year again. A good question to ask is why this is the case?
 
Percidae said:
Central Ohio D1 Girls appear to be down this year as compared to year's past. And not by a little... by a lot. Except for HD, everyone else I doubt will fare well at the state meet. Last year, central ohio teams took 4 out of the bottom 5 spots at the state meet. The year before, 2018, central ohio teams did better but that was when Granville was D1, they are D2 this year again. A good question to ask is why this is the case?
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I thought you were exaggerating and looked up some results. One of two teams mreducation has battling for second has 3 in the 20's and 3 more in the 21's. The other has a 19:54, two in the 20's and the rest over 21. I know XC times can be misleading but it gives an idea of team strength. Will this really have a shot to make it to state in D1? I really am not trying to be disparaging but as you asked why have they fallen so far in that region?
 
Percidae said:
Central Ohio D1 Girls appear to be down this year as compared to year's past. And not by a little... by a lot. Except for HD, everyone else I doubt will fare well at the state meet. Last year, central ohio teams took 4 out of the bottom 5 spots at the state meet. The year before, 2018, central ohio teams did better but that was when Granville was D1, they are D2 this year again. A good question to ask is why this is the case?
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Due to COVID restrictions many of the "high-powered meets" with 20-30-40 teams going head to head have been eliminated for 2020 all over the state. Those super fast times from recent years have generally come from the powerhouse teams battling each other week after week. (In cross country times don't matter anyway, do they?) ?

Another factor is what happened or didn't happen since March. We all know that kids are quite capable of getting out and putting in the work, but it was very tough for most to stay motivated and actually put in meaningful work. Parents were keeping their kids home and many weren't allowed to leave the neighborhood once things did open up a bit. Uncertainty about fall sports remained until well into the summer. These and many other factors surrounding the pandemic and its impact on traditional education and school sports have affected most in one way or another. I would hesitate to say that teams anywhere are "down" more than anyplace else. The times may be a bit slower, but the numbers that really matter anyway are 1...2...3... etc.
 
badger1 said:
Due to COVID restrictions many of the "high-powered meets" with 20-30-40 teams going head to head have been eliminated for 2020 all over the state. Those super fast times from recent years have generally come from the powerhouse teams battling each other week after week. (In cross country times don't matter anyway, do they?) ?

Another factor is what happened or didn't happen since March. We all know that kids are quite capable of getting out and putting in the work, but it was very tough for most to stay motivated and actually put in meaningful work. Parents were keeping their kids home and many weren't allowed to leave the neighborhood once things did open up a bit. Uncertainty about fall sports remained until well into the summer. These and many other factors surrounding the pandemic and its impact on traditional education and school sports have affected most in one way or another. I would hesitate to say that teams anywhere are "down" more than anyplace else. The times may be a bit slower, but the numbers that really matter anyway are 1...2...3... etc.
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What you say about the Convid impact was not the case last year when Central Ohio teams where emberrased at the state meet. And what you say is also true for mostly all teams in the state, not just Central Ohio teams. When I say the teams are down, I am saying in contrast to other teams in the state, not in comparison to times.

Here are the results from the Hot Summer Bash run earlier this month. How well do you think these teams will perform in the state meet (other than Davidson and Granville (D2)? I would suggest no better than last year. I really hope I am wrong.
===========================================================================
Pl Team Points
===========================================================================
1 Hilliard Davidson 31
2 Granville 47
3 Dublin Coffman 108
4 Olentangy Orange 150
5 Olentangy Liberty 153
6 Lincoln 162
7 Upper Arlington 171
8 St Ursula (Toledo) 204
9 Hilliard Darby 206
10 Dublin Jerome 241

The state rankings reflect this reality as well: https://oatccc.com/docs/cross-country/2020-d1-girls-week-3-poll.pdf
HD bringing home the gold would certainly be a huge positive for the Central Ohio region that is usually dominated by SW Ohio.
 
We will see about the state meet, but the clear #1 answer for why central Ohio D1 XC is down relative to where it has been is random chance. Cycles like this happen. It is a little odd that this period of relative weakness in team XC has coincided with a period of relative dominance in track and field, but cycles like this happen.

When I was coaching in the SW in the late 90s to the start of the 00s boys distance running the southwest (particularly in TF) was significantly better than in the central. A decade later that had reversed. There is probably also some effect from school size, as the largest schools in the state are skewed SW, but randomness plays a huge roll. From an individual school standpoint, I know that my girls team has suffered in the past half decade or so from most of the best young distance girls playing soccer. That too goes in cycles.
 
Most of the top contenders for girls D1 in the Central were running at MMOC at Bradley or the Berlin Bear Den Dash. Although Lancaster was not in a section with top central teams.

MMOC Section 1
Hil. Davidson 23
Liberty 102
Scioto 122
New Albany 136
Darby 143
TWHS 146

MMOC Section 2
Mason 30
Perrysburg 70
SVSM 71
Chardon 95
Lancaster 149
Avon 152

Bear Den Dash
Coffman 49
Berlin 110
Upper Arlington 124
Jerome 126
Orange 141
Canal 141
 
I posted this a while ago and now that the Regional Meet has arrived - I thought it might be fun to break down this region. How do you guys see this region stacking up? These are just my thoughts but I am curious how others see it as well.

I think the top 5 teams that will qualify to the state meet from this region: (I bolded my original predictions and comments and in italics put my most recent thoughts about the team)

1. Hilliard Davidson - they are winning this region - no question about it. - I said that they would win this region a month ago and I still believe it. Aint nobody touching them.

2. Dublin Coffman - A nice return to form for this historically elite program. I am not sure how many people expected them to be as strong as they are but they are certainly running well. - This team emerged early and has just kept getting better and better. They are outstanding!

3. Upper Arlington (Originally a Team to Consider): - Quietly starting to make some noise. Could be a factor down the stretch. This team started very slowly and has come on quite nicely. It is nice to see UA re-emerge as a force here in Central Ohio.

4. Olentangy Liberty - They might be a little down from what they have been in recent years but this team is still dangerous and I would bet money when it is crunch time this team shows very well at the Regional meet. - Their top 4 are very tightly compacted which will bode well for them at the Regional. I see them running next weekend as a team at State.

5. Lancaster - (Originally #3) -This team has a very nice 1-2 punch and the rest of their scoring 5 are very solid. I could see this team finishing 2nd as well. - Originally in my #3 slot - I still could see this team breaking through into the top 4 easily but I am sure the girls from Lancaster would be just as happy with a 5th place finish as well if it meant moving onto the State meet.


Others:

Thomas Worthington - Not a bad team but lacking the firepower upfront that previous teams had. Not sure if they have enough to supplant the top 5. - (Dropped from "Others" Consideration - I do not see this team factoring in at all )

Upper Arlington - Quietly starting to make some noise. Could be a factor down the stretch. (MOVED to #3)

Olentangy Orange - (Originally #5) - This is a mysterious team to me. They have looked very strong and then they have looked average. I think the reality is they are probably somewhere in between but I would expect them to have enough firepower to grab that 5th and final spot and head to the State Meet from this group. - Originally my #5 projected team - my concern then it still my concern now - lack of firepower. They also may be hurt by their #5. Orange tends to run pretty well at the Regional so anything can be expected.

Gahanna Lincoln - No real front runner which will hurt them. - When I wrote this earlier this season they did not have a strong front runner and as of this writing it can be argued that they may have the regional champion on their team. Wow. The question is do they have enough behind their #1 to crash the top 5? I still believe they will come up short and will likely finish 7th just on the outside looking in.

Pickerington North - A team that might be a year away. - I still believe this team is a year away from really making some noise at this meet on their home course. It is wonderful to see them re-emerge (which seems to be a theme here in Central Ohio this season).
 
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