"After five years of mostly obvious College Football Playoff choices, there’s (some) hope"

L

longtime1sttime

Well-known member
"As the committee sets to disentangle two months of final scores, the number of ironclad playoff contenders seems winnowed to nine. Five are unbeaten: LSU (8-0), Alabama (8-0), Ohio State (8-0), Clemson (9-0) and Penn State (8-0). Four are once-beaten: Oregon (8-1), Utah (8-1), Georgia (7-1) and Oklahoma (7-1). Two other unbeaten teams, Baylor (8-0) and Minnesota (8-0), do not yet seem playoff likely, a judgment owing to a time-honored component in the 150 years of college football history: snobbery."

 
 
Historically and currently there are only 4 teams that "WILL" win a national title any year. By eliminating any of those 4, you only increase the odds that 1 of the remaining winning. In no way shape or form does it open up the chances of any other team in the country winning.

Ohio State, Alabama & Oklahoma (Historically)
Clemson (Currently)

No other team in the country can navigate the 3 steps needed to win a title: Conference Championship, Semifinal & Championship and Notre Dame can't navigate the only 2 steps they need.

In the Big Ten.... Michigan, MSU or PSU and certainly not Wisconsin or Nebraska will ever win a national title.
Ok State, WVU or any team from Texas or Kansas will ever win it from the Big 12.
No team from the PAC12 will ever win a national title.... none..... Oregon can't even win a big non-conference game.... ever.
The ACC literally blows as a football conference, but Clemson currently can win it any year.
The SEC is led by Alabama exclusively. LSU could "maybe" win it this but no one else will. Not Georgia, Auburn, S. Carolina ect..


Probably not popular, but truthful. Only 4 teams can win the national title.
 
It will be interesting to see tomorrow how they rank teams based on strength of schedule. If they rank Alabama or Clemson in the top then strength of schedule does not matter. Baylor and Minnesota are undefeated and have probably equal or better strength of schedule yet don't get the same respect. It will also be interesting where they rank Notre Dame and Texas. These two teams were justification for Georgia and LSU's early rankings. Both teams should not be in the top 25. Florida is way over ranked. I would bet Michigan would beat them. Florida should not be ranked any higher than 15.
 
Minnesota, currently 8-0, will finish 9-3. No one will be talking about them in 2 weeks.

SOS means nothing. Minnesota would never make the CFB Playoffs.

Despite what people want it to be or what they think it should be, there really are only 4 teams that can win the National Title under the current format. I'm not talking "this year" I'm talking every year.... recent past, present, foreseeable future. There's Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma and Clemson and then there is "The Field". The Field has no chance. There is no scenario that increases the odds of The Field, only ones that increase the odds of the 4.

If LSU beats Alabama this week, runs the table and gets in.... it only increases the odds of the other 3 winning. You can substitute any of the 3 in any way.

Penn State beats Ohio State, wins the Big10 title game.... so what? Bama, Clemson or Oklahoma's odds increase.
Baylor beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game..... so what? Bama, OSU or Clemson's odds increase.

Even in the "best case" situation, The Field still won't win.

Clemson, being in by far the weakest conference is in. LSU beats Bama, Penn State beats Ohio State and Baylor beats Oklahoma..... that only means that its 100% that Clemson repeats.

Also, expansion to 6 or 8 teams doesn't help The Field it only lessens their chance of winning. Expansion means that any of the 4 gets in despite a regular season loss. That kills The Field. The Field can't go undefeated in the regular season, win a Conference Title game, a Quarterfinal game, a Semifinal Game and a National Title Game...………………………. it will never happen.

Just for perspective over the last 10 years

Bama averages 12.7 wins
OSU averages 11.5 wins
Oklahoma averages 11.5 wins
Clemson averages 11.2 wins

In 130 years of playing college football, Michigan has 11 seasons of 11 or more wins...… in their HISTORY!
In 113 years of playing college football, Notre Dame has 7 seasons of 11 or more wins..... in their HISTORY!
 
If you made that argument around 2000, it would have been Miami, Florida State, Oklahoma, and USC.

In 2010, it would have Alabama, Florida, Oregon, and Texas.

Now, it's Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma.

The elite has changed and it will again.
 
IamToz15 said:
Minnesota, currently 8-0, will finish 9-3. No one will be talking about them in 2 weeks.
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Minn will beat NW, Iowa and will give Wisc a run, I'd take the points on that game. Minn held on to tight games and now are controlling them. Ill and Md are not bad running teams and Minn shut them down. Minn counters with one of the better runners and QBs of their own, they can control the ball if they can keep the line.

disclaimer: I'm no expert.
 
I think they got the first rankings right. I’m not big on Penn St, but right now they deserve the 4 spot over Clemson. I’ve said since week 3 or 4, OSU and LSU looked like the best two teams.

My Top 8:

LSU
OSU
Bama
Penn St
Clemson
OK
UGA
Oregon
 
IMO, LSU is far and away the #1 team now, based on who they've played and who they've beaten. No disrespect to the Buckeyes, but they their best win is over Wisconsin, who lost to Illinois a week earlier. Same as Bama, their best win is Texas A&M. Clemson has no significant wins at this point, and one near miss with North Carolina.
I honestly have no idea how Penn State is #4. They have a 5 point win at Iowa and a 7 point win at home with Michigan.

The good thing is this thing will work itself out in two weeks.

I think LSU/ Bama will be close, and the loser stays in the race. Ohio State should pound Penn State, so they'll be in. And Clemson runs the table and they are in.

So 1. Ohio State 2. Bama 3. Clemson 4. LSU
This will be done simply because you don't want LSU/ Bama to play in a semi-final. I still honestly feel even with this set up, Ohio State has largely been untested and we won't know how good they are until the semi-final.
 
Red14 said:
IMO, LSU is far and away the #1 team now, based on who they've played and who they've beaten. No disrespect to the Buckeyes, but they their best win is over Wisconsin, who lost to Illinois a week earlier. Same as Bama, their best win is Texas A&M. Clemson has no significant wins at this point, and one near miss with North Carolina.
I honestly have no idea how Penn State is #4. They have a 5 point win at Iowa and a 7 point win at home with Michigan.

The good thing is this thing will work itself out in two weeks.

I think LSU/ Bama will be close, and the loser stays in the race. Ohio State should pound Penn State, so they'll be in. And Clemson runs the table and they are in.

So 1. Ohio State 2. Bama 3. Clemson 4. LSU
This will be done simply because you don't want LSU/ Bama to play in a semi-final. I still honestly feel even with this set up, Ohio State has largely been untested and we won't know how good they are until the semi-final.
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Their strength of schedule says otherwise and they've completely dominated that schedule in every facet of the game. Your take on this is absolutely wrong.
 
It would seem to be set up at the moment for an undefeated Clemson to get in with Ohio State/Penn State and LSU/Alabama. Unless some chaos ensues I think the LSU/Alabama loser is out, but chaos is always possible in college football. Right now I would say Oregon, Utah, Oklahoma and Baylor all have greater control of their destiny than the loser of this week's big SEC showdown, but it's always possible that all of those teams fall flat on their faces.
 
Gh0st said:
Their strength of schedule says otherwise and they've completely dominated that schedule in every facet of the game. Your take on this is absolutely wrong.
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Thanks for letting me voice my opinion...and as I said, it will all work itself out in the next few weeks.
 
Ohio State has PSU and Michigan back to back to finish the season that would be like if Alabama had LSU and Auburn 2 weeks in a row to finish the year. Would not surprise me if the Bucks were to lose one of those games. If OSU beats PSU but loses to Mich. and wins the BIG Championship game, and if LSU def. Bammy and wins the SEC Championship, who gets into the play offs, Bammy or OSU. Just playing devils advocate. IMO it should be OSU.
 
Red14 said:
Thanks for letting me voice my opinion...and as I said, it will all work itself out in the next few weeks.
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You're the biggest SEC fanboy here. You can voice your opinion, and it can be wrong. You aren't exactly an unbiased source.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Ohio State has PSU and Michigan back to back to finish the season that would be like if Alabama had LSU and Auburn 2 weeks in a row to finish the year. Would not surprise me if the Bucks were to lose one of those games. If OSU beats PSU but loses to Mich. and wins the BIG Championship game, and if LSU def. Bammy and wins the SEC Championship, who gets into the play offs, Bammy or OSU. Just playing devils advocate. IMO it should be OSU.
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I'll be surprised if OSU gets beat this year - for a few reasons.
1. Hearing that the biggest change for the players this year is that they are having more fun.
2. The respect the players have for the coaching staff - Young praising Johnson.
3. The attitude of the coaching staff - keep the foot on the throttle - substitute players when the game is under control.
4. The attitude of the players - the self-awareness to recognize that they had one totally horrible game each of the last 2 years - and they do NOT want to be that team.
5. Other than some Heisman talk - no distractions. No Bosa being injured and deciding to skip the rest of the season. No qb controversy.
6. The execution in all phases of the game.
7. They don't always come out of the gate looking like world beaters, but they make great adjustments - look at the 2nd and 3rd quarter point spreads.
8. They have enough depth to wear out other teams by mid second half.
9. They never seem to get flustered. Maybe frustrated - but they just work harder.

Then again - if Young or Fields would get hurt (in that order) MY confidence would be a bit shaken - but I don't think this team's would.
Besides - how sweet would it be to see an OSU LSU championship game?!
 
Gh0st said:
You're the biggest SEC fanboy here. You can voice your opinion, and it can be wrong. You aren't exactly an unbiased source.
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So I can voice my opinon, as long as it's Big Ten biased?? Look, it's not a stretch to say the SEC is the best conferece, because it is. Look, I've said all along this year the Buckeyes will be in the playoffs. I don't think the Penn State or Michigan games will be close. I look for Ohio State to beat Penn State by 15-20 points and thereby put Penn State in about the 10-15 spot where they belong, maybe higher than that. It's really hard to evaluate big ten teams because they league is so weak.
 
nutsnbolts said:
I'll be surprised if OSU gets beat this year - for a few reasons.
1. Hearing that the biggest change for the players this year is that they are having more fun.
2. The respect the players have for the coaching staff - Young praising Johnson.
3. The attitude of the coaching staff - keep the foot on the throttle - substitute players when the game is under control.
4. The attitude of the players - the self-awareness to recognize that they had one totally horrible game each of the last 2 years - and they do NOT want to be that team.
5. Other than some Heisman talk - no distractions. No Bosa being injured and deciding to skip the rest of the season. No qb controversy.
6. The execution in all phases of the game.
7. They don't always come out of the gate looking like world beaters, but they make great adjustments - look at the 2nd and 3rd quarter point spreads.
8. They have enough depth to wear out other teams by mid second half.
9. They never seem to get flustered. Maybe frustrated - but they just work harder.

Then again - if Young or Fields would get hurt (in that order) MY confidence would be a bit shaken - but I don't think this team's would.
Besides - how sweet would it be to see an OSU LSU championship game?!
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I can summarize why Ohio State won't lose a big ten game. They have the best players, and it's not close. Someone that didn't know a thing about football could win 10 games with that talent. I say this every year and no one pays attention. Ohio State recruits and gets 4 and 5 star recruits year after year after year. Michigan gets a few, Penn State gets a few. About eveyrone else in the big ten combined gets the same number of 4-5 stars as Ohio State. Now who's going to win? And that's not a knock on Ohio State, it just gives you an indication of how much better they should be year after year.
Now once we get to the playoffs and Ohio State has to play an Alabama, LSU, Clemson or someone who can actually match up with them athletically, then all bets are off. But they win the rest of their big ten games this season by 20 points or more. Book it.
 
Red14 said:
So I can voice my opinon, as long as it's Big Ten biased?? Look, it's not a stretch to say the SEC is the best conferece, because it is. Look, I've said all along this year the Buckeyes will be in the playoffs. I don't think the Penn State or Michigan games will be close. I look for Ohio State to beat Penn State by 15-20 points and thereby put Penn State in about the 10-15 spot where they belong, maybe higher than that. It's really hard to evaluate big ten teams because they league is so weak.
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Who is your top 15? And what are your thoughts on Clemson and the ACC vs. Ohio State and the Big 10?
 
Orin Swift said:
Who is your top 15? And what are your thoughts on Clemson and the ACC vs. Ohio State and the Big 10?
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Let me get back to you on my top 15. My thought is Clemson is the ACC what Ohio State is to the Big ten. It amazes me when Buckeye and big ten fans bang Clemson for being in a weak conference.
 
Red14 said:
Let me get back to you on my top 15. My thought is Clemson is the ACC what Ohio State is to the Big ten. It amazes me when Buckeye and big ten fans bang Clemson for being in a weak conference.
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For some reason I have a feeling you won’t get back to me on your top 15.

I take it you have not looked at the college football rankings then? If not, do so and you’ll see why everyone in college football bangs on Clemson’s weak schedule. And please don’t say your eye test. You have not watched every single game that OSU, Clemson and their opponents have played so you have no idea how good all those teams truly are.
 
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Red14 said:
So I can voice my opinon, as long as it's Big Ten biased?? Look, it's not a stretch to say the SEC is the best conferece, because it is. Look, I've said all along this year the Buckeyes will be in the playoffs. I don't think the Penn State or Michigan games will be close. I look for Ohio State to beat Penn State by 15-20 points and thereby put Penn State in about the 10-15 spot where they belong, maybe higher than that. It's really hard to evaluate big ten teams because they league is so weak.
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You're going to voice your opinion no matter how ridiculous it sounds. You've proven that multiple times over on this site.

Your opinions are incredibly biased and you offer no objective evidence or facts to support them. Just more generalizations and opinions. So you can feel free to put your opinions out there and you can also feel free to take whatever criticism comes from that.

Comparing the Big 10 to the ACC is pretty laughable. It's incredibly easy to evaluate Big 10 teams because we have objective metrics that evaluate all teams in college football based on strength of schedule, offensive, and defensive performance. Not based on the opinion of someone that can't take the SEC homer glasses off.
 
Orin Swift said:
For some reason I have a feeling you won’t get back to me on your top 15.

I take it you have not looked at the college football rankings then? If not, do so and you’ll see why everyone in college football bangs on Clemson’s weak schedule. And please don’t say your eye test. You have not watched every single game that OSU, Clemson and their opponents have played so you have no idea how good all those teams truly are.
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Ok, Orin...just for you, I'll take 10 minutes and come up with my top 15, which BTW is what it's worth because these rankings mean absolutely NOTHING until the rest of the games are played...

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Alabama
5. Penn State
6. Oregon
7. Georgia
8. Auburn
9. Florida
10. Utah
11. Baylor
12. Minnesota
13. Cincinnati
14. Michigan
15. Notre Dame
16. Memphis

Minnesota will be out of this next week as Penn State will destroy them this weekend. YOu'll have two big ten teams in the top 15 in a week, and I think the Buckeyes will pound Penn State so I'd guess may end up in the 12-15 area. So you'll have one big ten team in the top 10. IMO.
Georgia had that awful loss at S. Carolina or they'd be higher. Florida is easily the best 2 loss team as they've lost to Auburn and LSU.
 
Red14 said:
5. Penn State
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Interesting.

Red14 said:
Penn State in about the 10-15 spot where they belong
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If Penn State belongs in the 10-15 spot why are they in your top 5?

Curious where you have Wisconsin? I only ask because UC got totally manhandled from start to finish, didn’t come close to scoring against Ohio State. Wisconsin made it competitive for 1/2-3/4 of the game and lost by less. I know Wisconsin lost to Illinois but that looks more like an off day. They have a solid win over Michigan, who you have ranked.

Also, wouldn’t the Big 10 have 3 teams in the top 15 after this weekend? OSU, Penn State, Michigan.
 
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Orin Swift said:
Interesting.



If Penn State belongs in the 10-15 spot why are they in your top 5?

Curious where you have Wisconsin? I only ask because UC got totally manhandled from start to finish, didn’t come close to scoring against Ohio State. Wisconsin made it competitive for 1/2-3/4 of the game and lost by less. I know Wisconsin lost to Illinois but that looks more like an off day. They have a solid win over Michigan, who you have ranked.

Also, wouldn’t the Big 10 have 3 teams in the top 15 after this weekend? OSU, Penn State, Michigan.
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Penn State is undfeated, they won't be that way much longer.
Wisconsin?? Can't forgive that loss to Illinois. Illinois is bad. They are worse than Purdue last year and Iowa the year before for the Buckeyes.
Yes, if you want to include Michigan fine. This issue is that with the conferences the way they are, with the numbers of teams you're always going to have 3-4 teams from the power conferences. They don't play enough of each other. One way I evaluate is to put teams in other conferences. For instance. Wisconsin would probably lose 4-5 games in the SEC. In the big ten, especially the west division, they are always in contention. I'd put Penn State in there as well. And even Ohio State, most years I'd say they could lose 3-4 conference games in the SEC. There are just too many layups in the big ten.
 
Red14 said:
Penn State is undfeated, they won't be that way much longer.
Wisconsin?? Can't forgive that loss to Illinois. Illinois is bad. They are worse than Purdue last year and Iowa the year before for the Buckeyes.
Yes, if you want to include Michigan fine. This issue is that with the conferences the way they are, with the numbers of teams you're always going to have 3-4 teams from the power conferences. They don't play enough of each other. One way I evaluate is to put teams in other conferences. For instance. Wisconsin would probably lose 4-5 games in the SEC. In the big ten, especially the west division, they are always in contention. I'd put Penn State in there as well. And even Ohio State, most years I'd say they could lose 3-4 conference games in the SEC. There are just too many layups in the big ten.
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Those Big 10 teams are lucky they don't play a powerhouse schedule like getting SCar, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Miss St. Those are some real contenders this year.

The way you evaluate is ridiculous because it is 100% based on conjecture and your biased opinion. You intentionally discard the objective measures because it doesn't support that the SEC teams are the gods of college football and have no equal.
 
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Gh0st said:
Those Big 10 teams are lucky they don't play a powerhouse schedule like getting SCar, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Miss St. Those are some real contenders this year.

The way you evaluate is ridiculous because it is 100% based on conjecture and your biased opinion. You intentionally discard the objective measures because it doesn't support that the SEC teams are the gods of college football and have no equal.
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Objective measures? What are there other than head to head and very few play each other. So everyone's evaluations are conjecture?? Look, I'm not alone in feeling that the SEC is the best conference, this has been pretty much the norm for a long time. Now I certainly hope you are not under the impression that the big ten is even in a normal season? I mean, once you get past Ohio State, Penn State and kind of Wisconsin, what's left? Michigan has under performed (again), Michigan State is way down, and everyone else is Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, and please to buy into Minnesota. They have a once in a lifetime schedule put together. They'll end up with 3-4 losses.
 
Red14 said:
Objective measures? What are there other than head to head and very few play each other. So everyone's evaluations are conjecture?? Look, I'm not alone in feeling that the SEC is the best conference, this has been pretty much the norm for a long time. Now I certainly hope you are not under the impression that the big ten is even in a normal season? I mean, once you get past Ohio State, Penn State and kind of Wisconsin, what's left? Michigan has under performed (again), Michigan State is way down, and everyone else is Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, and please to buy into Minnesota. They have a once in a lifetime schedule put together. They'll end up with 3-4 losses.
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I'm not surprised you've heard of no objective statistics measuring college football now. There's SP+, FPI, FEI which measure expected performance vs actual performance on a play by play basis, excluding garbage time statistics and is weighted to punish teams for under-performing against bad teams or performing above expectation against good teams. I'm not surprised you haven't heard of it because it doesn't sell your narrative so I imagine your brain just automatically filters that out.

The current rankings have 3 SEC and 3 Big 10 teams in the top 10. If you expand to the top 25 there are 6 Big 10 teams and 5 SEC teams. There's one ACC team in the top 25 and the next highest ACC team is #38. The ACC currrently has as many teams in the top 25 as the Mountain West and less than the AAC.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

I'll take those assessments over Red14's SEC circle jerk.
 
Absolutely no doubt the ACC is the weakest of the Power 5 conferences overall. That said, right or wrong, if you win a national title and follow up that season undefeated.... you're back in. I don't care who you play. Because Clemson is in a weak conference doesn't make them "not" the best team. Maybe Clemson is this years 2015 FSU team, who knows yet. But we will find out because unless they lose, they're in.
 
These things are cyclical. It was not too long ago...the 2016 season...when the ACC was getting a lot of run as the best football conference. They went 9-3 in bowl games. Clemson crushed Ohio State and beat Bama for the natty. FSU beat Michigan in the Orange Bowl. The other bowl games went well for the ACC, for the most part. It's 2019 and everyone is throwing dirt on the ACC.

It should be pointed out the vaunted SEC hasn't had a winning bowl record as a league since 2015, I believe.
 
Yes 8-2 in 2015.

Last 10 years the SEC 60-43 with a 6-4 in BCS/Playoff title games (1 v. themselves)

2018: 6-6
2017: 5-5
2016: 5-9
2015: 8-2
2014: 7-5
2013: 6-2
2012: 6-3
2011: 6-2
2010: 5-5
2009: 6-4
 
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