Active Player HOF Locks

 
I'm a little surprised Ray Allen (93%) was that high and Steve Nash (58%)was that low. Nash is a two-time MVP who I believe is a more compelling factor in a game than Allen, who is a phenomenal shooter, but not much else. I also was surprised that Paul Pierce was in the rarified air percentile of Nowtizki, Wade and James. I just don't think he's in that class. A Hall of Fame player? Yeah, but those guys are certain first ballot electees. I think Pierce gets in but not on the first ballot. I also think Dwight Howard (72%) will continue to rise on the list.
 
90%. I agree that Pierce should be closer to 90%, and that Nash should be much higher. The players that I think are the most likely to rise on the list over the upcoming years are Howard and Paul.
 
Pierce is too high, but certainly above or at 90%.

The Basketball HOF takes into account what you did in college and overseas, right? It's not the NBA HOF?
 
I think Peirce is a bit high, ratings wise, but not too much. I also think he's probably in the correct order. Personally, I think Kidd is too highly rated. Same with Vince Carter.
 
bearcatfan said:
I'm fine with Kidd. If you want to lower him I understand, but he should definitely be over the 90% mark.
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I'm not really being objective with Kidd. I've never liked him. He probably is where he should be. It's hard to argue with this list since it's data driven, not subjectively put together. The Nash ranking looks odd, but it's probably mostly due to being a very late bloomer. He didn't play at an elite level until his late 20s early 30s. You have to think the hof committee will recognize that.
 
twbb said:
Pierce is too high, but certainly above or at 90%.

The Basketball HOF takes into account what you did in college and overseas, right? It's not the NBA HOF?
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I think college plays a minor role in the criteria the HOF uses to make its selections, particularly in the last 20-30 years when so few of the great players stay in college more than two years. Certainly, a great college career is factored in but to a much lesser degree. I do think players like Bill Bradley and Bill Walton benefited from their great college careers to push them into the Hall of Fame, though Walton, when healthy, was a great NBA player.
 
DennisRodman said:
The criteria is pretty good, but there are still outliers.
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Who are the outliers? They would be niche guys, not studs.

Will be interested to see where Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant end up on this list once they get 400 games under their belt. They look like 90%+ guys right out of the gate.
 
I wish they used the numbers of guys who were already in to show us what their percentages would have been based on the formula they use.
 
Ok so after reading a little more he says historically 83.1% of players who had a rating of .5 or higher actually did make it in, while 1.5% of players who had a rating of under .5 made it in.
 
I'd put it at 80%.

The one that surprised me the most was Manu Ginobili at 14.67%. Out of all the players under 50%, he's the most impressive one to me. I will go out on a limb and guarantee that Ginobili will get into the Hall of Fame, and long before Grant Hill, Shawn Marion, and Joe Johnson.
 
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