#3 tOSU vs #2 PSU

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bdhof

Well-known member
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The B10 dual season is ending this weekend w/ perhaps the 2nd most interesting dual of the season, tOSU vs PSU. I think the chances of this duplicating the drama and excitement of the PSU vs IOWA are slim, but it could happen. Like that dual, there are many matches that are coin flips, or near to it. 125, 141, 157, 184 and maybe even 285 could go either way. I'd like tOSU's chances better if it was in the Covelli Center and not @ PSU. tOSU is favored at 149 & 197, while PSU is favored at 133, 165, 174, 184 & 285. If PSU holds those weights, and they should, they'll add bonus pts and win even w/ a 5-5 split. I doubt that tOSU pulls it off, but this season has seen it's share of dual upsets. I'm sure there'll be a thread on this match, so I won't break it down or analyze it any further now. As you'll see below, tOSU remains closer to 2nd (12.5 pts) than 4th (15 pts). This dual could shrink the gap for 2nd or expand it.
 
On paper (per rankings) tOSU is favored in 4 weights, but 141 has to be considered a tossup. This might be a weight where the same guy doesn't win all 3 anticipated matchups (dual, B10s & NCAAs). Pletcher has wrestled the tougher schedule thus far, but that doesn't really mean anything. 4 of the 5 ranking venues that I follow have Pletcher at #1 and the other has Lee at #1. The NCAA coaches' rank has Pletcher at #1. The new RPI has Pletcher at #1 but and Lee down at #7, attributed to his soft schedule.
 
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While duals don't mean a lot other than bragging rights, this dual might give an indication of whether or not tOSU can give PSU a run for their money for 2nd. A blowout, which is quite possible, would lead one to the 2/3 gap is wider than the polls would show. A closer match, perhaps even an upset, would lead one to call it a tossup.
 
125 - Neither wrestler will do anything at NCAAs, but this could help keep this dual close, rated a tossup
133 - RBY is too much for Decatur, probably a bonus
141 - See above, tossup
149 - Could be a bonus but Verk has a way to keep matches close. If it's Gardner I think it's a bonus.
157 - Berge is listed as either/or but that has been the case most of the season. If he's there, win or bonus for PSU. W/o Berge then another tossup for either Cleary or Kinner. And smart money says Berge won't be there.
165 - Joseph by win or bonus.
174 - Hall by win or bonus.
184 - Brooks by win but wouldn't be shocked w/ a Jordan win. He's been wrestling very well at 184.
197 - Moore by win.
285 - Nevills by win, but as w/ Jordan, wouldn't be shocked by a GTG win.
 
I see Penn St winning around 25-10. I hope I’m wrong.

I see OSU winning 149, 157 and 197 and I gave Sasso a major. I think Pletcher can win, but I’m more concerned about him winning in March.
 
The good...
125 Malik, struggling all year, beat another guy who has been struggling. This was a "must-win" match leading off the dual.
133 Decatur looked good against one of the top 133s, holding him to a decision.
157 Kinner welcomes formerly #4 ranked Berge back to the mats (been out for 2 months), beating him w/ a TD and ride-out in the 3rd.
197 Moore MDs AA Rasheed.
285 GTG gets a late TD & ride-out to wipe out RT and secure a come-from-behind victory.

The bad...
165 Smith gives up a late TD to lose by a MD.
174 Romero gets caught in the mixer for a fall.
184 Rocky was no match for Brooks (I was giving him a chance, altho not betting $ on him).

The ugly...
141 #1 Pletcher gets handled by #2 Lee. This seemed similar to Lee surprisingly beating McKenna in a dual last year. McKenna would beat Lee at B10s & NCAAs, but the margin of victory was 1 pt in each of the 3 matches vs McKenna. This one wasn't close at 8-4. I'm not counting Pletcher out, though. I think he can beat Lee. I would settle for 1 out of 3 times, preferably at NCAAs. And this is a weight where the 1 seed at B10s or NCAAs isn't a big deal, as I think Lee and Pletcher are comfortably ahead of the field.
 
I've said this before, but here goes again. NO ONE wants to see GTG in the blood round of NCAAs. For those not familiar with the term, "blood round" is a name given to the final match of NCAAs (and other tourneys) in the consolations bouts (losers bracket) that determine that the winners will AA and losers will not. It is the 5th match of the tournament for these wrestlers, at a time when fatigue sets in and heart and stamina rule. Depending on how GTG does at B10s, he's likely to get a seed of 16-20. I don't see him winning any more than 1 match in the championship bracket (prove me wrong. GTG), but then I think he shines in the consos. 285lb'ers aren't known for stamina, unless your name is GTG. I see him topping one guy after another, all in dramatic fashion, and getting on the podium. I may be wrong, but wouldn't be surprised.
 
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I know OSU went down to defeat but I truly believe they are right there with PSU in the running to #2 at Nationals. We all know anything can happen and it usually does to some extent, so I believe this dual proved that they are very close as far as team goes. We will see at the BIG TENS I am sure. I just hope OSU stays relatively healthy. Looking forward to post season. bdhof, great work on the postings my Friend. Enjoy them.
 
Coach McCoy said:
I know OSU went down to defeat but I truly believe they are right there with PSU in the running to #2 at Nationals. We all know anything can happen and it usually does to some extent, so I believe this dual proved that they are very close as far as team goes. We will see at the BIG TENS I am sure. I just hope OSU stays relatively healthy. Looking forward to post season. bdhof, great work on the postings my Friend. Enjoy them.
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Thanks, Coach. Right now I have them about 16 behind, per rankings, in my brain. The new rankings haven't come out yet this week, but Pletcher will drop to #2 and Lee will move up to #1. Traub should get a boost and Nevills should drop. And Kinner may find himself in the top 20. We were about 12 behind last week. Mix it in a bag and shake it up and you have about a 16 pt gap. I consider a 10 pt gap going into NCAAs a tossup. B10s will give us another chance to close the gap. heading into NCAAs.
 
bdhof said:
141 #1 Pletcher gets handled by #2 Lee. This seemed similar to Lee surprisingly beating McKenna in a dual last year. McKenna would beat Lee at B10s & NCAAs, but the margin of victory was 1 pt in each of the 3 matches vs McKenna. This one wasn't close at 8-4. I'm not counting Pletcher out, though. I think he can beat Lee. I would settle for 1 out of 3 times, preferably at NCAAs. And this is a weight where the 1 seed at B10s or NCAAs isn't a big deal, as I think Lee and Pletcher are comfortably ahead of the field.
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I think Pletcher can reverse that decision, but I think Lee's jumped a level this past year. Beat Eierman and Molinaro in freestyle, majored Chad Red (after winning by a point last year), lost to Moran last year then beat him 14-1 this year. I'm just saying I think it's closer to 60/40 or 70/30 Lee over Pletcher than 50/50
 
Yankeefan33 said:
I think Pletcher can reverse that decision, but I think Lee's jumped a level this past year. Beat Eierman and Molinaro in freestyle, majored Chad Red (after winning by a point last year), lost to Moran last year then beat him 14-1 this year. I'm just saying I think it's closer to 60/40 or 70/30 Lee over Pletcher than 50/50
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another good dual match to watch. I didn't think OSU could win the dual, and was thinking it would be a bit lopsided after the Pletcher loss, but winning the 2 toss-ups (125 and 157) kept them in it. All the other potential ways it could have turned out have already been covered in comments above.

This loss didn't hurt nearly as much as the dual loss a couple of years ago when it seemed OSU had a definite path to victory after jumping out to a 10-0 lead through 141. The loss by Moore to Cassar was unexpected, but Cassar could have become a 2x NCAA champ at hvywgt. It also hurt that Nickal got a major against Martin in the 19-18 win by PSU. That "should have" broke the Penn State dual match consecutive win string that was finally broken this year by Iowa. A lot of swearing went on with the way that one ended. But - OSU still won the Big 10 title in East Lansing latter that year.
 
should of won the match. Coaching needs to be better. No excuse for Romero getting caught in that jr hi move.
 
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