2022 CFP Projections

I don’t think the conference title games really matter this year except maybe for seeding purposes. Georgia, Michigan, USC and TCU are all locks now.

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AEW Champion said:
I don’t think the conference title games really matter this year except maybe for seeding purposes. Georgia, Michigan, USC and TCU are all locks now.

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Not so sure about USC and TCU. I think TCU should be safe, but the committee doesn't seem to have much faith in them.

If USC loses next week against Washington or Oregon, they're out. That would be two losses. I think Ohio State or even Alabama (which would suck, but they do have two losses on the final play of the game) would be sitting there where Tennessee was at #5 waiting to see who loses in the conference title games.

Now if everyone wins, then yes it'll be for seeding. For this Tuesday, I think it should be:
#1 Michigan
#2 Georgia
#3 USC
#4 TCU

LSU losing also hurts Georgia in that it won't be a top 4-5 matchup anymore, where I think they'd have the opportunity to jump Michigan for #1 going in the Semifinals. Depending where TCU and USC are this coming Tuesday, I don't believe that one can jump the other without a complete blowout win next week.
 
AEW Champion said:
I think it’s fair to say that going into today, Georgia, Ohio State and Tennessee are the three teams best positioned to be in the playoff. Assuming TCU and LSU take another loss before it’s all said and done, it’s time to look hard at the Pac 12 for a fourth team.

I’m still not sold on Oregon. They have that 49-3 matzo ball vs Georgia at the top of their resume. Not only that, they really got a favorable schedule in the Pac 12 where all their toughest opponents had to come to Autzen. They beat UCLA there. Washington and Utah go to Autzen tonight and next week. And they ducked USC. (See what I did there?)

USC is well positioned. They have the best loss of Pac 12 teams (43-42 at Utah in a thriller), they look like a dominant offense, and they get UCLA, Notre Dame and likely a Pac 12 title game to offer a late push to the committee. Now we’ll find out how good they really are.

UCLA is still hanging around with just the one loss at Oregon. Aside from next Saturday vs USC, they should be able to bank two more wins and need to beat USC to make it to Vegas.

It’s still possible that the actual best team of this bunch is Utah. They’re the only ones who beat USC. They’re the only ones who smoked Oregon State. They still only have one conference loss and I’m not sure they should be an underdog next week at Oregon. They might well still win the Pac 12 title.

What I personally want to see is Utah and USC both make it to Vegas, because I think they’re the two best Pac 12 teams and I want a rematch from their Salt Lake City game.

If you’re a fan of Michigan, Ohio State, TCU, Bama, LSU, etc., what you want to want to see is Utah beat Oregon; USC beat UCLA; Notre Dame beat USC; and then USC win the Pac 12 title. What you absolutely don’t want to see is a one-loss Pac 12 champion.

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Called it. AEW had the Pac 12 sorted out before it sorted itself out.

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AEW Champion said:
Why isn’t Caleb Williams getting more national pub for the Heisman? 28 TDs, 2 INT for a Top 10 team that is still in the hunt for a playoff spot seems like circumstances that would make the player the favorite or at least co-favorite.

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Called it.

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tom 48 said:
Williams plays on the west coast, where most of the games are played after east coast voters are in bed. One of the many reasons USC has moved to the Big Ten.

www.si.com

Caleb Williams Throws, Runs and Punts His Way to Heisman Frontrunner Status - Sports Illustrated

USC’s star QB threw, ran and punted his way to Heisman frontrunner status against Notre Dame on Saturday.
www.si.com www.si.com
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I agree, they are very smart to get away from the terrible “out of sight, out of mind” Pac 12 media deals, especially the complete disaster of having some games on the Pac 12 Network, which much of the country doesn’t get, much less watch, because of how irrelevant it is.

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AEW Champion said:
The lesson: Get rewarded for playing nobody. At least Ohio State played Notre Dame, albeit a home game in Week 1.

But the Big Ten is softer than an old man’s belly after a Thanksgiving feast. Michigan has played 11 creampuffs so far. Ohio State has played 10 creampuffs and Notre Dame.

And both might make the playoff because the incompetent committee can’t discern that the Big Ten stinks worse than a week-old discarded turkey carcass in your neighbor’s trash can.

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After almost 9 full playoff seasons you’re finally getting what the playoff committee is looking for. You’re almost there, skippy!
 
AEW Champion said:
Aside from the Marshall loss, who else is going to be able to match this resume:

Big wins:
at North Carolina
vs BYU (Las Vegas - Mormon country)
at Syracuse
Clemson
at USC

Loss:
at Ohio State (21-10) - ND controlled game until late 3rd quarter

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Add in a loss to Stanford and you were basically batting 1.00! 😂🤣
 
If USC doesn’t move up to #3 and Bama doesn’t move past Ohio State to #5 tomorrow night, I’m going to unleash a tirade.

Here are my rankings:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. TCU

5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Utah
10. LSU

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There isn't anyone deserving of making the playoff after the top-4. I personally would not care if Alabama jumps Ohio State, but they still have one more loss, have played a bunch of one possession games, and will have 1-2 wins between teams ranked 21-25 as their sterling gems on the season.

Ohio State for as chitty of an egg as they laid on Saturday, unfortunately still has one less loss and that pesky win over (non-quality win according to AEW) Penn State, who is currently checking in at #7 and #8 respectively in the polls.

It's disgusting to me that one or the other of the two are a loss away from backing into the playoff. They both have zero business being there this year.
 
AEW Champion said:
If USC doesn’t move up to #3 and Bama doesn’t move past Ohio State to #5 tomorrow night, I’m going to unleash a tirade.

Here are my rankings:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. TCU

5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Utah
10. LSU

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Can't wait. Replace Notre Dame with Kansas State and that's not a half bad list.
 
Rankings are supposed to be based on past performance of teams as of today. If you compare USC and Ohio State, OSU has the better SOS, wins, and only loss is against #2 ranked team. USC should be behind OSU until they win this week.

Ranks should be this week:
#1 Georgia
# 2 Michigan
# 3 TCU
# 4 OSU
# 5 USC
#6 Bama
 
Voice said:
Rankings are supposed to be based on past performance of teams as of today. If you compare USC and Ohio State, OSU has the better SOS, wins, and only loss is against #2 ranked team. USC should be behind OSU until they win this week.

Ranks should be this week:
#1 Georgia
# 2 Michigan
# 3 TCU
# 4 OSU
# 5 USC
#6 Bama
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Wrong. Ohio State is OUT. PUNKED AT HOME by Michigan.

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AEW Champion said:
Wrong. Ohio State is OUT. PUNKED AT HOME by Michigan.

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Sorry, but compare USCs wins and loss against OSUs. By any objective measure OSU should only fall to number 4. Bama has two losses and what is their best two wins? Bama is out.
 
AEW Champion said:
Total garbage. When Czar AEW gets his committee together, rest assured this level of incompetence will be a thing of the past.

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Nope, the committee decided that the current 4 teams are in no matter what happens next week. No way they move down any of the current teams now. Only problem I had was USC should not have been forth based on the current results. Also, Tennessee should be ahead of Bama. The current system is a joke. TCU will get rolled by Michigan. I actually think Purdue will give Michigan a better game and they will still lose by 21.
 
Hoping for an upset free conference championship weekend, although the outrage would be hilarious if TCU or USC get upset. It would be even more tense if both lost and the committee is sitting there staring at ratings elevating OSU and Bama vs. leaving conference championship losers in or really jumping multi-loss conference champs in over several teams.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
Hoping for an upset free conference championship weekend, although the outrage would be hilarious if TCU or USC get upset. It would be even more tense if both lost and the committee is sitting there staring at ratings elevating OSU and Bama vs. leaving conference championship losers in or really jumping multi-loss conference champs in over several teams.
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I agree the current top four teams should be the final four regardless of this coming weekend. OSU doesn’t deserve to be in, not in the slightest.

If USC wins the Pac 12, they have to move up to 3 above TCU. I mean, give me a break. Georgia vs USC will be the national title game.

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Wait, we are literally saying Riley can win a playoff game, are you new here? He has yet to meet a playoff win he likes.



And 2 losses to a teens team is not better than 1 lose to a top 2.

Sorry, facts
 
AEW Champion said:
I agree the current top four teams should be the final four regardless of this coming weekend. OSU doesn’t deserve to be in, not in the slightest.

If USC wins the Pac 12, they have to move up to 3 above TCU. I mean, give me a break. Georgia vs USC will be the national title game.

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I'd have a hard time dropping anyone from the current top-4 if they lose due to nobody else being in a position this week to "play themselves in".
 
Voice said:
Rankings are supposed to be based on past performance of teams as of today. If you compare USC and Ohio State, OSU has the better SOS, wins, and only loss is against #2 ranked team. USC should be behind OSU until they win this week.

Ranks should be this week:
#1 Georgia
# 2 Michigan
# 3 TCU
# 4 OSU
# 5 USC
#6 Bama
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What? You're the first person I've seen even try to argue this take. Everyone knew the Buckeyes were falling behind USC this week, it happened in every single Poll.

The SOS I find hard to believe. Both played and beat Notre Dame at home. Ohio State played at top 10 Penn State and hosted top 2 Michigan, but the rest of their schedule wasn't any good. USC played at #11 Utah, at top 20 UCLA and Oregon State, though they did avoid Oregon and Washington.

Ohio State has the best win between the two, at Penn State but USC has two road wins that are better than Ohio State's next best win (which also happens to be another ranked win on USC's resume). At best this is a push.

The Ohio State loss, albeit to a better and higher ranked team was at home by more than 20. USC lost by one point, in the final minute to a top 11 team. Advantage USC.

And then there's the recency bias which always comes into play in November games. Ohio State was only up 3 late in the 4th against middle of the B1G Maryland and lost to Michigan by 20. USC was beating it's cross-town rival and ranked UCLA on the road and then beating ranked Notre Dame at home. The Trojans have been playing better football than Ohio State has.
 
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Voice said:
Nope, the committee decided that the current 4 teams are in no matter what happens next week. No way they move down any of the current teams now.
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USC will absolutely fall out if they lose again and Ohio State would be sitting pretty to fall right into the 4th spot. TCU should stay in, but the Committee hasn't been in love with them all year, they're moreso just there at #3 because they are one of three teams with a 0 in the loss column.

Tennessee currently doesn't have Hooker. So I understand ranking them behind Alabama right now. Moot point though as neither has, nor should they have a path to #4.
 
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