2022 CFP Projections

Here are my current Top 4 based on results to this point:

1. Tennessee — Won big at LSU, took out Bama, won at preseason fashionable ACC pick Pitt.

2. Georgia — Smoked Oregon, had a bit of a lull out of boredom, but they’re trending up as they prepare for the heart of their schedule.

3. Clemson — They’ve taken out most of the ACC’s biggest opposition, including wins at Wake Forest, at FSU, and vs NC State. A big test vs unbeaten Syracuse is next.

4. Alabama — They already have wins at Texas, at Arkansas and vs Texas A&M (with Jalen Milroe at QB) in their pocket, so I’m not going to penalize them too much for losing an instant classic road game against the best offense in the country after digging out of a 28-10 deficit.

Waiting list:

5. UCLA — Has taken care of everyone in its path so far, including a good Utah team.

6. Michigan — Hasn’t really played anyone yet aside from a mediocre Penn State team. At least they obliterated PSU.

7. Ohio State — Hasn’t played anybody aside from an underwhelming win over QB-less Notre Dame.

8. USC — If they beat UCLA and Notre Dame and win the Pac 12 title, they’ll still be in the mix for a spot, but need some things to fall correctly ahead of them.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Here are my current Top 4 based on results to this point:

1. Tennessee — Won big at LSU, took out Bama, won at preseason fashionable ACC pick Pitt.

2. Georgia — Smoked Oregon, had a bit of a lull out of boredom, but they’re trending up as they prepare for the heart of their schedule.

3. Clemson — They’ve taken out most of the ACC’s biggest opposition, including wins at Wake Forest, at FSU, and vs NC State. A big test vs unbeaten Syracuse is next.

4. Alabama — They already have wins at Texas, at Arkansas and vs Texas A&M (with Jalen Milroe at QB) in their pocket, so I’m not going to penalize them too much for losing an instant classic road game against the best offense in the country after digging out of a 28-10 deficit.

Waiting list:

5. UCLA — Has taken care of everyone in its path so far, including a good Utah team.

6. Michigan — Hasn’t really played anyone yet aside from a mediocre Penn State team. At least they obliterated PSU.

7. Ohio State — Hasn’t played anybody aside from an underwhelming win over QB-less Notre Dame.

8. USC — If they beat UCLA and Notre Dame and win the Pac 12 title, they’ll still be in the mix for a spot, but need some things to fall correctly ahead of them.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Sorry to bust your reality, but in no world except yours is OSU on the outside looking in right now.
 
AEW Champion said:
The first sentence is ludicrous and showing your anti-Notre Dame bias. So a team has to make a conference title game for it to be considered a big win??? Really??? You think the Buckeye boys on here won’t be beating their chest until it bleeds if they beat Penn State, calling it a big win? Because I can assure you Penn State won’t be in the Big Ten title game.

If USC wins at Utah on Saturday night, it won’t be a big win because Utah won’t be in the Pac 12 title game? If Bama beats Tennessee, it won’t be a big win because UGA will be the SEC East rep??? Insane comment.

BYU has only lost twice: at Oregon and vs Notre Dame. (Also beat the stuffing out of USF, 50-21, in case you’re looking to compare BYU with your boys.)

Lastly, there’s no rule that a two-loss team can’t make the playoff if they rack up enough big wins, which Notre Dame has a chance to do. It’s all in front of the Irish.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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What about a team with 3 losses, two of which were to teams with losing records, before Halloween?
 
AEW Champion said:
Aside from the Marshall loss, who else is going to be able to match this resume:

Big wins:
at North Carolina
vs BYU (Las Vegas - Mormon country)
at Syracuse
Clemson
at USC

Loss:
at Ohio State (21-10) - ND controlled game until late 3rd quarter

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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This post just keeps getting funnier and funnier with each week.
 
adselder09 said:
You're also right that there isn't a rule against having a 2-loss team make the Playoff, but in the short history of the CFP, how many 2-loss teams have made the 4-team bracket?
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I’m old enough to remember two-loss LSU winning the national title in 2007. And that was before they just had to be in the top four! I definitely think that as more power has consolidated in the SEC — especially this year — I’d strongly consider a two-loss Alabama, Georgia or Tennessee for a playoff spot over a lightly challenged Big Ten or Big 12 team that hasn’t exhibited dominance.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Gh0st said:
Sorry to bust your reality, but in no world except yours is OSU on the outside looking in right now.
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Ohio State’s current resume is thinner than their record vs Michigan in the 90s. What wins is Ohio State hanging its hat on right now to put them in the top 4 over teams that have been challenged like Tennessee, Georgia, Clemson and Alabama?

Who’s in your Top 4? The only way anyone can put Ohio State in a Top 4 list is by pure speculation. There are literally no results that tell us Ohio State is a definitive Top 4 team.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
I’m old enough to remember two-loss LSU winning the national title in 2007. And that was before they just had to be in the top four! I definitely think that as more power has consolidated in the SEC — especially this year — I’d strongly consider a two-loss Alabama, Georgia or Tennessee for a playoff spot over a lightly challenged Big Ten or Big 12 team that hasn’t exhibited dominance.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Ah yes, 15 years ago. The year of upsets. When ranked teams lost to lower/unranked teams 62 times. When the top 10 teams lost 29 times. When the #1 ranked team lost 4 times. When the #2 ranked team lost 7 times in the final 9 weeks of the season. When the #1 and #2 team lost in the same week three times, including weeks 13 and 14. What a fun year. Using it as precedent for a different era with different power dynamics and a different postseason instead of the previous 7 years of playoff selections? Interesting strategy.
 
AEW Champion said:
I’m old enough to remember two-loss LSU winning the national title in 2007. And that was before they just had to be in the top four! I definitely think that as more power has consolidated in the SEC — especially this year — I’d strongly consider a two-loss Alabama, Georgia or Tennessee for a playoff spot over a lightly challenged Big Ten or Big 12 team that hasn’t exhibited dominance.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Click to expand...
Well so that was the BCS, which had its own problems albeit, not the bias that the human eye test has. But that happened 15 years ago, there weren't ANY undefeated teams going into bowl season and there were only TWO 1-loss teams - Ohio State and Kansas. The Jayhawks lost to Missouri earlier that season in a top 5 matchup. Then Missouri as #1 lost in the Big 12 Championship Game.

I disagree with your 2nd part though. If Ohio State rolls through the B1G and if TCU who is still undefeated rolls through the Big 12, they'll be in and more deserving than a 2-loss, SEC team - regardless if the 2-loss team is the SEC Champ.

You're already starting to see that narrative though. I've seen multiple predictions of Tennessee making the top 4 as an 11-1 non-division winner, with their only loss being to Georgia, regardless if UGA or Bama wins the SEC. They keep touting the 4 ranked wins Tennessee has this season, making sure to notate that the teams were ranked at the time Tennessee played them:
#17 Pitt - currently 4-2 unranked
#20 Florida - currently 4-3 unranked
#25 LSU - currently 5-2 unranked
#2 Alabama - currently 6-1 ranked #6
 
adselder09 said:
Well so that was the BCS, which had its own problems albeit, not the bias that the human eye test has. But that happened 15 years ago, there weren't ANY undefeated teams going into bowl season and there were only TWO 1-loss teams - Ohio State and Kansas. The Jayhawks lost to Missouri earlier that season in a top 5 matchup. Then Missouri as #1 lost in the Big 12 Championship Game.

I disagree with your 2nd part though. If Ohio State rolls through the B1G and if TCU who is still undefeated rolls through the Big 12, they'll be in and more deserving than a 2-loss, SEC team - regardless if the 2-loss team is the SEC Champ.

You're already starting to see that narrative though. I've seen multiple predictions of Tennessee making the top 4 as an 11-1 non-division winner, with their only loss being to Georgia, regardless if UGA or Bama wins the SEC. They keep touting the 4 ranked wins Tennessee has this season, making sure to notate that the teams were ranked at the time Tennessee played them:
#17 Pitt - currently 4-2 unranked
#20 Florida - currently 4-3 unranked
#25 LSU - currently 5-2 unranked
#2 Alabama - currently 6-1 ranked #6
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I give Tennessee a lot of credit for the Bama and Pitt wins, and for the way they just stomped on LSU’s throat all game long. I don’t put near as much credence in the home Florida win. LSU is definitely not a top 25-caliber team in my opinion, although there’s enough talented guys that they’re still enigmatic enough to do some damage on any given day, especially home night games (see: Miss State win), and especially if you let them hang around long enough. So pulverizing LSU in Baton Rouge impressed me even though I realize LSU is not at its typical talent pool right now and even though it was a day game.

I guess I really just don’t see it with TCU. I don’t see them holding up all year even though I understand Max Duggan is good. They’ve only faced one decent opponent where they dominated the game, and that was somewhat partly due to a TCU dirty hit that knocked out OU’s Dillon Gabriel. TCU would’ve won anyway, but not to that level.

I would favor Texas at home to beat TCU for sure, and Baylor might get ‘em the week after that. Even their game Halloween weekend at WVU could be a trap.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Ohio State’s current resume is thinner than their record vs Michigan in the 90s. What wins is Ohio State hanging its hat on right now to put them in the top 4 over teams that have been challenged like Tennessee, Georgia, Clemson and Alabama?

Who’s in your Top 4? The only way anyone can put Ohio State in a Top 4 list is by pure speculation. There are literally no results that tell us Ohio State is a definitive Top 4 team.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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You are delusional and your "projections" mean less than nothing. I'm not going to list anything because there's no point in arguing with homers.
 
My predictions for tonight’s ranking:

1. Tennessee
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan

5. Clemson
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Oregon
9. USC
10. Notre Dame

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
1. Tennessee
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Alabama
6. Clemson
7. TCU
8. Oregon

Anyone below 8th doesn't matter at this point unless some wild things occur.
 
What I think the playoff committee will do for top 10
1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Oregon
9. USC
10. UCLA
 
AEW Champion said:
Ranking TCU over Alabama would be a travesty and a miscarriage of justice. Aside from that, I agree with the rest.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Ranking them ahead of them would be fine. Bama has to beat Ole Miss, LSU and win the SEC championship game yet. Wining a those games they’d certainly be back in the top 4.
 
AEW Champion said:
Ranking TCU over Alabama would be a travesty and a miscarriage of justice. Aside from that, I agree with the rest.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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It’s where they SHOULD be ranked at this point in the season, not who are the best teams
 
Omar said:
It’s where they SHOULD be ranked at this point in the season, not who are the best teams
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I think losing on a last-second FG in a raucous environment at the team who will be #1 in the rankings means the loser of that game is deserving of a Top 4 spot.

Imagine getting rewarded for finding yourself in close tussles with SMU, Kansas and West Virginia. Laughable.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
I think losing on a last-second FG in a raucous environment at the team who will be #1 in the rankings means the loser of that game is deserving of a Top 4 spot.

Imagine getting rewarded for finding yourself in close tussles with SMU, Kansas and West Virginia. Laughable.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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I didn’t phrase my first post well. I was saying this is likely what the committee will come up with. Bama is better than TCU, but TCU being an undefeated P5 team will rank ahead of Bama.
 
I think we pretty much know who's going to be in the top 4, mainly because they've been there all season and teams don't drop when they win.
But what is the difference maker between TCU slate and say Ohio State or Michigan? Ohio State - let's dismiss Notre Dame right now because they lost at home to Marshall, who is 4-4 and have had close games with other mediocre teams. Penn State? Buckeyes were down with 9 minutes to go and Penn State is ... meh??
 
14Red said:
I think we pretty much know who's going to be in the top 4, mainly because they've been there all season and teams don't drop when they win.
But what is the difference maker between TCU slate and say Ohio State or Michigan? Ohio State - let's dismiss Notre Dame right now because they lost at home to Marshall, who is 4-4 and have had close games with other mediocre teams. Penn State? Buckeyes were down with 9 minutes to go and Penn State is ... meh??
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TCU almost lost to Kansas, struggled against a West Virginia team who is 3-5, and barely beat a 4-4 SMU team. So what makes them more impressive than Ohio State? Ohio State has the better eye test, and Penn State would beat every team TCU has faced except maybe Kansas State. Kansas State did not have their starting quarterback for most of the game.
 
14Red said:
I think we pretty much know who's going to be in the top 4, mainly because they've been there all season and teams don't drop when they win.
But what is the difference maker between TCU slate and say Ohio State or Michigan? Ohio State - let's dismiss Notre Dame right now because they lost at home to Marshall, who is 4-4 and have had close games with other mediocre teams. Penn State? Buckeyes were down with 9 minutes to go and Penn State is ... meh??
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Yeah, TCU is better than Ohio State..... :ROFLMAO: Ohio State is ranked 3rd over all and have 15 five stars and 51 four stars, meanwhile TCU is ranked 32nd and has 1 five star and 16 four stars.
 
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JokesOnYou said:
TCU almost lost to Kansas, struggled against a West Virginia team who is 3-5, and barely beat a 4-4 SMU team. So what makes them more impressive than Ohio State? Ohio State has the better eye test, and Penn State would beat every team TCU has faced except maybe Kansas State. Kansas State did not have their starting quarterback for most of the game.
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They may have had some tight games, but Ohio State's best win??? Penn State???... in a game they struggled mightily, and Penn State turned the ball over and over and over to them. This is typical Ohio State. We won't know how good they are until the end of the season.
The big ten is as weak as I can ever remember, and it's normally not strong.
 
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