2022-23 SW D1

Not sure how you can put Lakota East above WC, i know im biased, but there were that many fouls in the Wc-east Game because east played man and couldn't contain Hicks and the quickness of the wc guards was a problem, they guarded swisshelm with Smith and tried to guard hicks with blount which was a nightmare and the east guards were undisciplined reaching on drives and in the full court. lammert and hicks shot 21 free throws because east couldnt contain them without fouling. wc got called for 20 too, in the end, wc was just the better team. wc shot 50% from the line, hale was 1-10, acuff didnt score, and they still won.

what's East's second best win? mnd? whos best win is centerville? or is it springboro? who's lost 3 of their last 4 including lebanon and beavercreek.

So not only is WC undefeated, they have a head to head win over East, and two top 10 state wins vs. east's one. You can't ignore the magnificat win, they were ranked in the top 10 heading into saturday... easily a better second win than east. I agree mason has the best resume and not sure its close, wins over princeton twice, olmsted, and bolingbrook is easily the best resume, but WC should be 2. quit saying fouls was the reason east lost, and wc resume is better.
 
Meh, if 50 fouls in a game were so normal you'd see it more often, but that hasn't happened. I didn't say it was the reason WC won the game but its the reason its not an impressionable win because it did affect the game.

I did forget Magnificat was a top 10 win, so both LE and WC have played two top 10 games, and WC beat LE in the head to head. But again LE beat Mason, last year's state runner up and current #1 and so if I have to put them one or two below Mason, I'm putting them right below until they give me more than one single digit loss in a 50 foul game. But that's just me!
 
taximama24 said:
Meh, if 50 fouls in a game were so normal you'd see it more often, but that hasn't happened. I didn't say it was the reason WC won the game but its the reason its not an impressionable win because it did affect the game.

I did forget Magnificat was a top 10 win, so both LE and WC have played two top 10 games, and WC beat LE in the head to head. But again LE beat Mason, last year's state runner up and current #1 and so if I have to put them one or two below Mason, I'm putting them right below until they give me more than one single digit loss in a 50 foul game. But that's just me!
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So east beat a state runner from last year up that graduated a mcdonalds all-american that has no relevency to this argument whatsoever, west clermont has 0 single digit losses, well losses at all, and beat two top ten teams in the state including the one you have ranked higher who has only beat one. idk how you can just throw out a result of a game when talking about this because fouls were called. the game happened. thats like saying mason didnt beat princeton a second time because princeton dont usually turn the ball over with 5 seconds left, so thats not an impressionable win. and we're just not going to mention east hasn't played princeton yet and doesn't play mason a second time or princeton until after seeding. 1. mason 2. west clermont 3. east. 4. princeton i think most people would agree
 
taximama24 said:
I think I'll disagree here after looking at schedules. Mason beat Princeton (who had a very strong win vs. DC) twice, had a strong win vs. OF, and only lost a close one to LE. I don't see how you wouldn't put them above a WC team whose only top 10 win was vs. that LE team in a game that had 50 fouls (50...that's a win no one can claim is repeatable). Mason is ahead of LE despite losing to them, so its not wrong that LE is above WC also, since LE has played one more top 10 match up than WC despite them both having one top 10 win. So WC at #3 does actually make quite a bit of sense to me.
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I'll give Lakota East their props. Heck, they came within 9 points of beating West Clermont which is respectable. WC is clubbing everybody else by 25 a night. All this will be moot in a couple of weeks when the tournament starts, but that poll that listed WC number 3 in the city ain't based in reality.
 
Great discussion and should make for an interesting draw and tournament. I would add that I believe the other 3 regions are hoping Princeton doesn't make it out of the Southwest regardless of ranking or seeding.
 
AmeliaB2020 said:
So east beat a state runner from last year up that graduated a mcdonalds all-american that has no relevency to this argument whatsoever, west clermont has 0 single digit losses, well losses at all, and beat two top ten teams in the state including the one you have ranked higher who has only beat one. idk how you can just throw out a result of a game when talking about this because fouls were called. the game happened. thats like saying mason didnt beat princeton a second time because princeton dont usually turn the ball over with 5 seconds left, so thats not an impressionable win. and we're just not going to mention east hasn't played princeton yet and doesn't play mason a second time or princeton until after seeding. 1. mason 2. west clermont 3. east. 4. princeton i think most people would agree
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We're obviously not going to agree, and that's fine, I don't have a dog in this fight nor would I have any credence to say "most people would agree" with me (though clearly from the poll already voted on and posted, some at least do) but 'the game happened' as well between LE and Mason, the current #1 who has played twice as many top 10 matchups (more if you count out of state top 10's) than either WC or LE, but whose only loss is to LE. You can't use the argument for one and not the other.

As for last year's Mason team, that McDonald's All American was on the team the year prior and Mason didn't even make it out of the regional semi's if I recall, so one could argue it was actually last year's freshman guard that had the most impact. Given they are still #1 with the many previously mentioned top 10 games, one could argue even moreso that she is the real MVP so to speak. So yes I think its still very much a relevant win.

Also to Madame Secretary I do agree on Princeton, they've fallen short of their potential I think with the addition of Gerton to a Williams team, and I'm both surprised and a little disappointed about that, but I do think they still have the same shot at winning the region. They don't seem to have strung together any consistency yet, but you gotta believe its right there....
 
Reminder 5 Cin Sectional Winners and 3 Dayton Sectional Winners will fill the 8 District spots
So, in addition to “Big Four”, Talawanda actually makes it a Big 5.
3 Cin sectional winners will play 3 Dayton sectional winners in District Finals, and 1 District Final will be 2 remaining Cincinnati Sectional Winners.

If all the Big 5 Cincinnati teams seed themselves to avoid the other 4 in Sectionals….
With Cincinnati teams appearing to have advantage over Dayton teams this season, being 1 of the top 3 seeds in Cincinnati matters the most.
Then whoever is 4 and 5 in Cincinnati would play each other in Districts.

As a fan, 2 things.
1) No one wants Princeton
2) Leagues should mandate all teams play other conference members at least once before seeding Sunday
Shame on GMC/OHSAA for allowing the only game between East and Princeton to be played after Jan 29.

Why isn’t it played around the mid Season mark?
GMC plays everyone but 2 teams twice and only plays once against other 2 (Rotating basis)
Every other team in GMC plays 2 conference games after Seeding Sunday, but they will have already played those teams once this season
 
SWOHHSfan said:
Reminder 5 Cin Sectional Winners and 3 Dayton Sectional Winners will fill the 8 District spots
So, in addition to “Big Four”, Talawanda actually makes it a Big 5.
3 Cin sectional winners will play 3 Dayton sectional winners in District Finals, and 1 District Final will be 2 remaining Cincinnati Sectional Winners.

If all the Big 5 Cincinnati teams seed themselves to avoid the other 4 in Sectionals….
With Cincinnati teams appearing to have advantage over Dayton teams this season, being 1 of the top 3 seeds in Cincinnati matters the most.
Then whoever is 4 and 5 in Cincinnati would play each other in Districts.

As a fan, 2 things.
1) No one wants Princeton
2) Leagues should mandate all teams play other conference members at least once before seeding Sunday
Shame on GMC/OHSAA for allowing the only game between East and Princeton to be played after Jan 29.

Why isn’t it played around the mid Season mark?
GMC plays everyone but 2 teams twice and only plays once against other 2 (Rotating basis)
Every other team in GMC plays 2 conference games after Seeding Sunday, but they will have already played those teams once this season
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I agree with most of what you said, but Talawanda isnt a big 5. They are not on the level of the other 4. Talawanda will probably be the 5 seed, but they will not make it out of their bracket.
 
Much like Martin RPI, I have used results to create power rankings/rpi. Being from SWO, I have focused on the Cincinnati district in D1. Here is the current Top 10...

Not how I think these teams will be seeded though. Based on who everyone plays before the draw, have to imagine it will end up WC, L. East, Mason, Princeton in the top 4.

swo d1 rpi girls.png
 
Madame Secretary said:
Can you share your whole list? Looks like you have a heavier weight on schedule strength.
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Yes, that is definitely where I think my list is stronger. Since I know the strength of leagues/teams, I feel as if I can adjust for it better. Here is the entire Cincy D1 district, updated this morning.
swo d1 rpi girls 1-18.png
 
Wow. SWO RPI; That's Impressive!!

Problem currently with Martin RPI, Home and Away victories are NOT weighted.
Brayton Martin acknowledged as much.
He doesn't trust ADs with reporting correct venues, so it is not part of his calculation currently.
Don't know if you are using it in your calculations.

Any bettor knows the value of home court advantage in College and Pro Sports.
I would imagine it is an even greater advantage in HS Sports.

Currently in OH only 2 Big Top 10 Road Wins
Olmsted Falls at Midview
Mason at Princeton
 
I think Princeton and Mason will be the real top seeds when the bracket is finished. If Princeton gets the 4th seed, then I think they will take Lakota East or West Clermont in a District Finals game. Predicting a Mason v. Princeton Regional final. However, It's difficult to ignore the other two.
 
SWO RPI said:
Yes, that is definitely where I think my list is stronger. Since I know the strength of leagues/teams, I feel as if I can adjust for it better. Here is the entire Cincy D1 district, updated this morning.
View attachment 38235
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Can you explain the analytics behind West Clermont being 4 here? I actually like this list a lot and think it has the local teams pretty spot on 5-20, the top 4 is just odd to me. Obviously doesn't take into account the WC win over Magnificat on a neutral floor, but they are still 4-0 on the road against teams in the top 15 in this list, where East is 2-1 on the road against the top 15 here. and WC has the head to head over East as well. Come Monday night, WC could be 6-0 on the road against top 15 teams on this list, while East would still be 2-1. i know you said league/road wins play but that part is just odd to me. appreciate you posting tho! actually great to see how the mid level ranking/seeding should shake down.
 
Madame Secretary said:
I think Princeton and Mason will be the real top seeds when the bracket is finished. If Princeton gets the 4th seed, then I think they will take Lakota East or West Clermont in a District Finals game. Predicting a Mason v. Princeton Regional final. However, It's difficult to ignore the other two.
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i think the popular pick accross ohio is princeton-mason rightfully so. i do think the cincinnati teams will jump on the opportunity to play the 3 dayton teams if possible. being 4 wouldn't be terrible if you play the cincinnati 5's district wich should be a jammed up district with mnd-talawanda-west, etc. the first 3 will go against dayton id imagine to avoid having to see eachother or the 4 in a district game
 
ButlerCountyHoops123 said:
Will Talawanda, MND, and Lakota West all be in Cincinnati 5?

Who is the most upset prone out of the Big 4? (Either in sectional final or districts).
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I think West Clermont & Lakota East will take go into sectionals that play Dayton at Districts. The first question comes at 3. Will Mason go into the Cincy-Cincy brackets or would they rather play the top Dayton team (assuming WC & LE avoid them)? I think Mason goes into Cincy-Cincy and Princeton goes into the final sectional that plays Dayton. I do believe MND & Talawanda go in together. Could see West going with them or with WC.

Can you explain the analytics behind West Clermont being 4 here? I actually like this list a lot and think it has the local teams pretty spot on 5-20, the top 4 is just odd to me. Obviously doesn't take into account the WC win over Magnificat on a neutral floor, but they are still 4-0 on the road against teams in the top 15 in this list, where East is 2-1 on the road against the top 15 here. and WC has the head to head over East as well. Come Monday night, WC could be 6-0 on the road against top 15 teams on this list, while East would still be 2-1. i know you said league/road wins play but that part is just odd to me. appreciate you posting tho! actually great to see how the mid level ranking/seeding should shake down.
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So, this takes into account W%, adjusted SOS, and adjusted oSOS. The adjusted #s hurt West Clermont as their schedule is not as difficult. Also, out of town games don't account (right now) into SOS. The final piece of those adjusted numbers is that the recent games have a little stronger effect than the ones at the beginning of the season. That again, hurts WC a little. Lastly, WC has played the worst of the ECC twice, while only playing Kings, Walnut, Loveland just once so far.
 
Guess I'm in the minority, but i think the list created is more right up top than the middle(im not fan of rpi stuff). Harrison is too high, they got smoked by Western Brown, and lost to Seton. They dont have quality wins. Oak Hills has no quality wins and been thumped by the better teams they've played. Mt. Healthy doesnt have any good wins and was smoked by fairfield and goshen. Western Hills is way to high. Pretty much every team on that list would beat them except Northwest and Withrow and maybe Hamilton which should also be lower.
 
SWO RPI said:
I think West Clermont & Lakota East will take go into sectionals that play Dayton at Districts. The first question comes at 3. Will Mason go into the Cincy-Cincy brackets or would they rather play the top Dayton team (assuming WC & LE avoid them)? I think Mason goes into Cincy-Cincy and Princeton goes into the final sectional that plays Dayton. I do believe MND & Talawanda go in together. Could see West going with them or with WC.



So, this takes into account W%, adjusted SOS, and adjusted oSOS. The adjusted #s hurt West Clermont as their schedule is not as difficult. Also, out of town games don't account (right now) into SOS. The final piece of those adjusted numbers is that the recent games have a little stronger effect than the ones at the beginning of the season. That again, hurts WC a little. Lastly, WC has played the worst of the ECC twice, while only playing Kings, Walnut, Loveland just once so far.
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Makes sense, appreciate you explaining, and understand the ranking if thats the logic and thanks! i know a lot of work had to go into that, awesome insight. wc has a big stretch with kings and winton woods on the road and then walnut at home before seeding. should be interesting regardless, but if theyre 20-0 with an 8-0 record against the top 15 on that list and a win over state top 10 magnificat and a 40 point win over newark plus the head to head with east, not sure how anyone could put them outside the top 2.
 
AmeliaB2020 said:
Makes sense, appreciate you explaining, and understand the ranking if thats the logic and thanks! i know a lot of work had to go into that, awesome insight. wc has a big stretch with kings and winton woods on the road and then walnut at home before seeding. should be interesting regardless, but if theyre 20-0 with an 8-0 record against the top 15 on that list and a win over state top 10 magnificat and a 40 point win over newark plus the head to head with east, not sure how anyone could put them outside the top 2.
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They will be 1 if they remain unbeaten. I think even GMC coaches will vote them there. With East, Mason, & Princeton games remaining against each other all after the draw, they should be seeded in that order behind WC.
 
undertaker said:
Guess I'm in the minority, but i think the list created is more right up top than the middle(im not fan of rpi stuff). Harrison is too high, they got smoked by Western Brown, and lost to Seton. They dont have quality wins. Oak Hills has no quality wins and been thumped by the better teams they've played. Mt. Healthy doesnt have any good wins and was smoked by fairfield and goshen. Western Hills is way to high. Pretty much every team on that list would beat them except Northwest and Withrow and maybe Hamilton which should also be lower.
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Thanks for the feedback. Interested in who you think should be higher since every team you named you thought was too high. My guess is the difference in how the ECC is viewed.
 
SWO RPI said:
Thanks for the feedback. Interested in who you think should be higher since every team you named you thought was too high. My guess is the difference in how the ECC is viewed.
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Correct. I think the ECC from top to bottom is better than the GMC. GMC is just top heavy. Look at Little Miami for example, they just went into sycamore and beat them. Ross just beat Middletown. Turpin beat Oak Hills. I'd have Lebanon, Winton, Walnut, and Western Brown ahead of Harrison. I think Milford should be higher than Oak Hills, Fairfield, and Mt. Healthy. Id have everyone ahead of Western Hills except Hamilton, Withrow, and Northwest. Definitely not criticizing your model, I'm more of a OK who would win this game if they played type of person.
 
TOURNAMENT INFO LINKS AT BOTTOM

Great to see some passionate interest in the Women's game this season!!
With Top 4 Teams in State it should be the most exciting Region in OH.
Don't know if any Region, Boys or Girls have ever had Top 4 going into State Tourney?

To answer a previous question about Dayton, some info below. (Sorry, no matter what your opinion of Talawanda is).
I think all Cincinnati teams would rather play Dayton Sectional winners than Cincinnati Section winners in Districts.
Highest Martin RPI Dayton teams are Fairmont (23), Beavercreek (26) ,Bellbrook (27) while Talawanda is lowest of Cincinnati 5 at #7.
Highest MaxPreps Dayton teams are Springboro (19), Bellbrook (27) ,Beavercreek (34) while Talawanda is lowest of Cincinnati 5 at #12.
Highest AP Dayton teams is Bellbrook at 11*, while Talawanda is 15.
Springboro has most potential and experience but have under performed so far this season. Bellbrook hosts Springboro Monday Jan 23.

* Bellbrook once again has the rogue AP voter who should lose their right to vote in the Poll and always votes them #1 so they are rated higher than deserved. 3 years in a row now, it's been ridiculous, but we are pretty sure who the BBrook dad voter is (Eric?).
But that needs an entirely different Forum:oops:

OHSAA tourney is not like NCAA where a committee places teams, in OHSAA teams place themselves.
Teams will be seeded 1-33 in Cincinnati. 1 puts themselves where they want to go 1st, 2 goes 2nd, 3 goes 3rd, etc...........
Teams will be seeded 1-19 in Dayton and follow same process.

1 seed does NOT necessarily go into Cincinnati 1, they could choose to place themselves in any of the 5 Cincinnati Sectionals in any of the numbered slots on the blank sectional brackets.
Some Coaches like to play at Harrison more than Lakota East and vice versa. Some Coaches like to have a bye early, some coaches like to play later of two games. Seeding your team is a VERY important/underrated part of coaching/prepping for long tournament runs.
If you follow the lengthy paths necessary to advance (Sectional brackets link below), look at which section plays which section in Districts (District brackets link below).
From past experience, assumption is 1 seed will choose Cincinnati 1 or 2 this season, then it's off to the races on who wants to avoid who.

If Big 4 continue to win thru Selection Sunday I think Mason 1, WC 2 and serious uncertainty on 3, 4.
Doubtful any Non ECC Teams vote West Clermont which hasn't won a tournament game since Feb 2019 ahead of a defending State Runner Up with a much better resume' Mason team. Not fair to bring past teams into the equation but..........

I think LE deserves 3, but I also think Princeton will beat East in regular season.
Either way the 3 seed will be the most interesting team to see what they decide on Selection Sunday, they'll control who they'd want to play in Regional Semis.
I could see a scenario where East gets the 3 seed and chooses to play WC in Reg Semis to force Mason Princeton in Reg Semis.
With Quality of teams this season I actually believe the 3 seed is the best seed to have.
Coaches could actually let their time lapse and move back a seed (very very rare, but it has happened).

Past recent history, not this season necessarily.
Princeton struggles with Mason but owns Lakota East (beat them 3 times last year fairly easily).
Lakota East struggles with Princeton but plays Mason well.
WC doesn't have much past history with the GMC Three and I think they'll be 2 seed behind Mason.
IF WC is 2 they could choose to play Mason in Reg Semis or choose to avoid them until Reg Finals if all seeds hold.
I do think Talawanda will be 5 and MND, Kings, Lakota West or whomever are remainder of Top 10 seeds will jump into their Section making it very competitive.

Don't see any of the Big 4 or Talawanda losing before Selection Sunday so we'll all have to check back in after 4PM Sunday January 29.

Champions

www.ohsaa.org
This Page has all the info needed to estimate/predict where everything will land.

Team Assignments

Sectional Brackets

District Brackets
 
undertaker said:
Correct. I think the ECC from top to bottom is better than the GMC. GMC is just top heavy. Look at Little Miami for example, they just went into sycamore and beat them. Ross just beat Middletown. Turpin beat Oak Hills. I'd have Lebanon, Winton, Walnut, and Western Brown ahead of Harrison. I think Milford should be higher than Oak Hills, Fairfield, and Mt. Healthy. Id have everyone ahead of Western Hills except Hamilton, Withrow, and Northwest. Definitely not criticizing your model, I'm more of a OK who would win this game if they played type of person.
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Understand. Playing Devil's advocate, Sycamore handled the "3rd" best team in the ECC in Loveland. Winton hasn't beaten a team with more than 3 wins since Christmas. I think 8-18 are pretty interchangeable which the numbers say they are. Western Hills is a tough team in any data based ranking because there W% is good, there SOS and oSOS can only bring it down so much. I do think they are better than some teams ahead of them. This is just what the computer spits out! I have used those numbers to predict scores and it has been fairly strong. It has been more successful with the ECC,GMC, and SWOC though. Hard when you have the "better" teams in the bad leagues, a la Western Brown and Western Hills. They either overrate or underrate them!
 
undertaker said:
Princeton will be fine(As long as Sole and Gerton come back). No one is gonna be able to win much without their 2 best players
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Had to be tough game for Coach Davis

Hill didn't play either, so all 3 guards were out.
That would be tough on any team!
Maiben played 31 minutes, had only played 76 minutes ALL SEASON.
Francisco played 28 minutes, had only played 145 all season.
 
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