2020 Presidential Race

TX drop box order got blocked by a judge.

And a judge just denied the Trump campaign’s request to make drop boxes unconstitutional in PA
 
BlueJayFan said:
Of these, Michigan is the most likely to flip to Biden. WI/PA are about tied but I would put WI more likely than PA. I think AZ goes to Biden, but NC, OH and GA to Trump. As for FL, your guess is as good as mine. IF, it’s a big if, Trump underperforms in FL on election night, i.e. not matching his margins in Sumter County, it’s pretty much a wrap as there is absolutely no viable path to 270 for Trump without Florida.
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North Carolina is an interesting state too.

I may have had something special slipped into that last batch of brownies I had, but I think Trump is going to win 3 of 4 among Pa, Mi, Wi, and Mn.

The reason is Hillary lost those blue collar Dems in 16 and i dont see what Biden is offering to win them back. It seems to be an appeal to exchange Trump's obnoxiousness for Biden's predictability with a lot of gaffes. Trump made promises to those people that he kept. Biden SAYS he will do better for them. Deeds vs words.

But feel free to throw this back at me on Nov 4 (or whenever the thing is decided) if it goes the other way. :)
 
zeeman said:
Trump MUST carry one of these three: Penn., Mich or Wisc. If Babbles wins all of those three he will win. I THINK Trump will win Ohio, Florida, NC, Georgia and Arizona by 2-4%. Trafalgar, which is the only poll I read has him up in Michigan, barely. It's going to be razor close
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Trafalgar? That’s cute. Partisan polling is not to be taken seriously. It’s also the only poll you read because it’s the only one telling you what you want to hear.

Trafalgar’s methodology is useless when the “ hidden Trump voter” isn’t hidden anymore.
 
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IVCguy said:
North Carolina is an interesting state too.

I may have had something special slipped into that last batch of brownies I had, but I think Trump is going to win 3 of 4 among Pa, Mi, Wi, and Mn.

The reason is Hillary lost those blue collar Dems in 16 and i dont see what Biden is offering to win them back. It seems to be an appeal to exchange Trump's obnoxiousness for Biden's predictability with a lot of gaffes. Trump made promises to those people that he kept. Biden SAYS he will do better for them. Deeds vs words.

But feel free to throw this back at me on Nov 4 (or whenever the thing is decided) if it goes the other way. :)
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I’d be surprised if he won more than one of those states. There’s no evidence to suggest at this point he’s going to win any of them but it wouldn’t shock me to see him pull one out.
 
my2sense said:
I still find it fascinating that people are putting faith in polls. This poll had 661 people. lol

A poll that everyone was talking about earlier this week used 45% Dems and 36% Repubs. Amazingly Biden came out on top.
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Polls are a useful snap shot in time not gospel.
 
Obi-Wan said:
A hard right leaning media source is giving an opinion piece that favors Trump? I am shocked that this could possibly be true.

You should invest in finding a balanced variety of news. Any article you link on here is always hard right conservative news. Spoon feeding yourself exactly what you want to hear.
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Oh please with the "hard right" deflection. And what balanced news source would you recommend?

It seems to me that almost the entire MSM is left wing and virulent anti-Trump. They've also mastered the art of lying by omission. Why would any reasonably intelligent person believe anything they say?
 
Obi-Wan said:
Trafalgar? That’s cute. Partisan polling is not to be taken seriously. It’s also the only poll you read because it’s the only one telling you what you want to hear.

Trafalgar’s methodology is useless when the “ hidden Trump voter” isn’t hidden anymore.
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Isn't Trafalgar the only polling outfit that actually predicted a Trump win on election day in 2016?

Could you explain further how Trafalgar's methodology is "useless"? Are they oversampling a group? Are they sampling the wrong people?

And the hidden Trump voter is a real thing and they're not all out in the open.
 
You know history often repeats itself so it's usually informative to check out what has happened in the past for a recurring event like the election of a POTUS. So lets go back and look at the RCP battle state averages for Hilary's advantage over Trump on October 10, 2016:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315120039432007680


So if things play out in a similar fashion to 2016 Trump will likley win Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, PA and Wisconsin.
 
zeeman said:
Trump MUST carry one of these three: Penn., Mich or Wisc. If Babbles wins all of those three he will win. I THINK Trump will win Ohio, Florida, NC, Georgia and Arizona by 2-4%. Trafalgar, which is the only poll I read has him up in Michigan, barely. It's going to be razor close
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More on Trafalgar and other polls that show Trump winning. WARNING - these FACTS are being presented by a right wing site.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
lotr10 said:
Oh please with the "hard right" deflection. And what balanced news source would you recommend?

It seems to me that almost the entire MSM is left wing and virulent anti-Trump. They've also mastered the art of lying by omission. Why would any reasonably intelligent person believe anything they say?
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Why would any reasonably intelligent person believe what partisan media says more than the MSM? It makes me laugh every single time I see a partisan like yourself rail on the MSM while spoon feeding themselves the flavor of crap they desire.

Want a balanced news feed? You need to take in news from all spectrums. If your only getting conservative news your only getting a conservative viewpoint. I read anything from left wing to msm to conservative frequently. Variety is key.

I also don’t read any form of political opinion pieces. I can make up my mind without someone else telling me what they think.
 
Obi-Wan said:
Why would any reasonably intelligent person believe what partisan media says more than the MSM? It makes me laugh every single time I see a partisan like yourself rail on the MSM while spoon feeding themselves the flavor of crap they desire.

Want a balanced news feed? You need to take in news from all spectrums. If your only getting conservative news your only getting a conservative viewpoint. I read anything from left wing to msm to conservative frequently. Variety is key.

I also don’t read any form of political opinion pieces. I can make up my mind without someone else telling me what they think.
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So you dodge the question. You're a poser ObiWan. No details on why the Trafalgar groups polling is "useless"? Your words ObiWan yet you can't back them up I see.

Useful facts can come from all sorts of sources. Now if we had a truly fair and competent MSM they would present ALL the facts and information surrounding an issue. But they don't as they deliberately lie by omission. This means that to get the rest of the story you have to go to more ideologically based sources.

As far as my sources go they're all over the map. For example I read BOTH Breitbart AND the Guardian.
 
The poll I like the best is the one that asks people are you better off today than you were four years ago and even with the virus 56% say they are. The follow up question should have been then how could you possibly vote for a man that says he is going to reverse all that Trump has done and take us back to 2016.
 
As so often these days, it’s the Onion FTW: “Trump Attempts To Pivot Narrative Away From Coronavirus Controversy By Molesting Child of Fallen Soldier.” And yet that headline barely exaggerates how wildly the Trump train has gone off the rails in these last weeks of this campaign. We’ve been watching in real time as a seriously sick and unstable president has ambushed and wrecked the first debate, presided over a super-spreader viral event at the White House itself, ranted on Twitter in ALL CAPS, while hopped up on steroids, called on his attorney general to arrest his political opponents, announced a “cure” (why the not?), walked away from a desperately needed stimulus, canceled the next debate, and encouraged the country to let the coronavirus rip some more.

The Mussolini photo-op, like a bad reality show finale, revealed a figure like Krusty the Clown, finished but still performing, gasping under inches of make-up, dead inside apart from regular swoons of rage and resentment, saluting the air.

andrewsullivan.substack.com

Dreaming Of A Landslide

I know I'm tempting fate, but a landslide is what this country so desperately needs.
andrewsullivan.substack.com andrewsullivan.substack.com
 
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Obi-Wan said:
Why would any reasonably intelligent person believe what partisan media says more than the MSM? It makes me laugh every single time I see a partisan like yourself rail on the MSM while spoon feeding themselves the flavor of crap they desire.

Want a balanced news feed? You need to take in news from all spectrums. If your only getting conservative news your only getting a conservative viewpoint. I read anything from left wing to msm to conservative frequently. Variety is key.

I also don’t read any form of political opinion pieces. I can make up my mind without someone else telling me what they think.
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Then this last statement is a lie if you admit to reading the MSM.
 
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