2020 Cleveland Browns

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
We're going to have some real "what the hell was that?" moments during the draft when someone waaaaaaaaaayy down the "experts" lists get taken much earlier than expected because some obscure data points were filled to the delight of the analytics guys. We are all focused on the direct on the field game day impact of this, but how those drafts work out is going to be just as important in determining whether this approach has any merit.
You'd think that smart analytics would take into account what others will likely do, but I'd guess you'll be right.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
From what I am reading and hearing ... this scares me. I am one of the original nerds playing football ... I was a math major who played football in college, in fact, I wrote my final senior paper on Statistics and Sports (over 35 years ago) .... I understand most of the math behind this ... there are times to listen to the analytics and a time not to ... example is on 4th and short ... the analytics may say go for it, but if you have been getting killed up front, it may not be smart to do that ... some of the calls should be based on how the game has played out and the individual matchups involved ... not just analytics!
Right. You need team specific analysis, not league generic, but even that isn't enough if you have no feel for the game.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
With all the experts on here, Haslam should have just interviewed a bunch of Yappi posters. Fact is, none of us know for sure who would be the best head coach. We've got to just hope they are right about Stefanski. I do know this - just because the 49ers shut down the Vikings, it doesn't mean that Stefanski doesn't know how to coach, or his offense won't be successful in Cleveland. I mean, if recent performance is such a big issue, why even bother interviewing McDaniels? His offense reeked the last 6-8 weeks.
True enough. I don't think anyone in here is panning him over his last game, though. I just wanted an experienced HC, and McDaniels was my 3rd choice on that count. We'll see what Stefanski has beyond an education. It is pretty clear, though, that with the structure outlined here, no one but a newbie would take this job.

He's essentially been with one team, but under 3 Head Coaches. All of them saw value in keeping him and he's coached all over the field in many position groups, so he's seen a few different approaches to setting up a week and running a game. I hope he IS good, but you can be certain that the Browns' data-massagers' confirmation bias will have them patting themselves on the back if he is, and not Stefanski. I bet if he wins their arrogance will have them coach shopping when his contract is up.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
Are these facts you know, that Harbaugh was told what to do by analytics guys? Or could it be that a football coach knows he has a great rushing offense, and his guys have been picking up short yardage first downs all year, and he has confidence his guys will do it again, so he goes for it. Bet I'm right.

Tennessee just whipped them on both lines of scrimmage. And once the Ravens had to play from behind, they were sunk, because that is not how they are built. Blaming it on a phantom analytics guy overruling Harbaugh as a reason to be fearful of the Browns new hire seems very illogical to me.
I'll bet you're wrong. It's widely reported that this new Ravens Lamar-centric offense has been analytically driven. I'm surprised you've missed that.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
So you think that most coaches, even if they had a great rushing offense, would make that decision to go for it on 4th down on their own side of the field against a team that is pretty good against the run? In a playoff game? You are disputing my assumptions by making your own lol.

Harbaugh was pretty open all year that the reasons for why they go for it on 4th down and play as aggressively as they do is that the analytics support it. I would take that bet all day long that going for it on 4th down on their own side of the field so early in the game was an analytics based decision. It bit them and they never recovered. Whether or not it was Harbaugh's idea at that moment or someone else is irrelevant as to how they came up with the decision. That's the point that you obviously missed. We are not fearful of the man Stefanski (I do question if he is ready to take on a full head coaching job), but rather the rationale as to why he was hired and what limits are going to be placed on him.

If a successful, established coach like Harbaugh is going to let analytics drive decision making (again not something I'm pulling out of thin air; they're pretty open and pride themselves on how much stock they put in it), then how is a first-time head coach like Stefanski going to handle DePodesta and his team dissecting the game plan every Friday? Pretty sure he is going to conform....
Beat me to it. Well said.
 

clarkgriswold

Well-known member
So, other than listening to Jimmy babble at the presser, we now get to see who he brings onto the staff. Apparently, Wade Phillips has signed on as DC. I was a little concerned some of the old timers might be scared off by the analytics talk.
 

bedevil

Well-known member
So, other than listening to Jimmy babble at the presser, we now get to see who he brings onto the staff. Apparently, Wade Phillips has signed on as DC. I was a little concerned some of the old timers might be scared off by the analytics talk.
I'm more concerned about who he brings in as OC and how that dynamic is going to work. It's going to be Stefanski calling the plays. I also wonder if they are going to retain Lindley as QB coach or see if Zampese would be willing to leave Florida and come back to the NFL?
 

clarkgriswold

Well-known member
I'm more concerned about who he brings in as OC and how that dynamic is going to work. It's going to be Stefanski calling the plays. I also wonder if they are going to retain Lindley as QB coach or see if Zampese would be willing to leave Florida and come back to the NFL?
Word is they're talking to Brad Childress. He could do a second Browns stint like Ray Horton.
 

bedevil

Well-known member
I came across a quote that has been lost in all the discussion with the recent upheaval in Cleveland. It came from John Dorsey and, looking at it now, he might have set himself up for his ouster when he was riding at his highest. On the Freddie Kitchens hire, remember when he said, "I flexed my muscles and got what I wanted."? I'm sure that little bit of arrogance was filed away by DePodesta and even Haslam and was used against him after his hire turned out to be an utter disaster. I'm sure DePodesta is feeling the same way right now, but I hope he doesn't verbalize it. It wouldn't be analytically sound strategy.
 

clarkgriswold

Well-known member
I came across a quote that has been lost in all the discussion with the recent upheaval in Cleveland. It came from John Dorsey and, looking at it now, he might have set himself up for his ouster when he was riding at his highest. On the Freddie Kitchens hire, remember when he said, "I flexed my muscles and got what I wanted."? I'm sure that little bit of arrogance was filed away by DePodesta and even Haslam and was used against him after his hire turned out to be an utter disaster. I'm sure DePodesta is feeling the same way right now, but I hope he doesn't verbalize it. It wouldn't be analytically sound strategy.
Not the best judgment in "flexing" and staking your credibility on Freddie.

As a Browns fan, I have to hope DePo gets his ultimate "I told you so" moment.
 

OhioBobcatFan06

Well-known member
From what I am reading and hearing ... this scares me. I am one of the original nerds playing football ... I was a math major who played football in college, in fact, I wrote my final senior paper on Statistics and Sports (over 35 years ago) .... I understand most of the math behind this ... there are times to listen to the analytics and a time not to ... example is on 4th and short ... the analytics may say go for it, but if you have been getting killed up front, it may not be smart to do that ... some of the calls should be based on how the game has played out and the individual matchups involved ... not just analytics!
My biggest complaint with how the media covers analytics is referring to "the analytics" like all analytics are the same.

You're absolutely correct about the 4th and 1 situation... The way a lot people talk about "analytics" they assume analytics would always say go for it on 4th and 1 because you convert more often than not. That's just not true. Any "analytics" that arrive at that conclusion aren't really analytics at all they are just idiots using a single random statistic. True analytics in the modern era are about bringing together ALL the data at hand to make the best/most informed decision.

Freddie was TERRIBLE at understanding the game situation and factoring in field position/clock/opponent etc etc etc when calling plays... I'm ECSTATIC we are going to have an analytics guy with a radio discussing the game situation and clock as a factor in play-calling. Every team in the NFL should have a clock management coach who makes sure everyone is on top of the current situation. In a 4th and 1 situation next year, we're going to be making different decisions in different situations... As it should be.

Don't believe the media hype about "the analytics." Depodesta and the Browns analytics department are some smart guys. Have you guys seen NFL Next-Gen stats? They are tracking player movements on the field IN REAL-TIME. That's literally, about as precise of measurement data as you can get. Analytics has really evolved in the last decade far beyond what Moneyball even discussed because of how far the tracking technology advanced. Don't make the mistake of thinking this is just some statistics nonsense. It's way bigger than that.
 

OhioBobcatFan06

Well-known member
There's a difference between data and statistics. The "next-gen stats" aren't really stats. They're more like an animated version of the chalkboard/whiteboard... Good coaches should honestly appreciate that more than any stats-geek
 

bedevil

Well-known member
I just heard Adam the Bull (his nickname deserves two more syllables at the end) on 92.3 The Fan come up with an analogy about the value of analytics. With his usual pomposity, he asked a caller whose occupation was a truck driver,, "Wouldn't you like to have someone working at your company who can tell you where police write the most tickets?" The caller conceded that would be good. What I wished the caller would have said was, "Yeah, I'd like that, as long as the guy doesn't tell me how to drive my truck." And that's what I fear is going on in Berea right now. I don't mind having the analytics nerds providing data and trends. I am bothered if they are going to be allowed to drive the truck, and that's what it looks like is going to happen.
 

clarkgriswold

Well-known member
I just heard Adam the Bull (his nickname deserves two more syllables at the end) on 92.3 The Fan come up with an analogy about the value of analytics. With his usual pomposity, he asked a caller whose occupation was a truck driver,, "Wouldn't you like to have someone working at your company who can tell you where police write the most tickets?" The caller conceded that would be good. What I wished the caller would have said was, "Yeah, I'd like that, as long as the guy doesn't tell me how to drive my truck." And that's what I fear is going on in Berea right now. I don't mind having the analytics nerds providing data and trends. I am bothered if they are going to be allowed to drive the truck, and that's what it looks like is going to happen.
Were you encouraged by DePo saying he really knew nothing about the NFL until 3 years ago or him implying that he will be the final say on draft picks?
 

ceebass13

Member
I just heard Adam the Bull (his nickname deserves two more syllables at the end) on 92.3 The Fan come up with an analogy about the value of analytics. With his usual pomposity, he asked a caller whose occupation was a truck driver,, "Wouldn't you like to have someone working at your company who can tell you where police write the most tickets?" The caller conceded that would be good. What I wished the caller would have said was, "Yeah, I'd like that, as long as the guy doesn't tell me how to drive my truck." And that's what I fear is going on in Berea right now. I don't mind having the analytics nerds providing data and trends. I am bothered if they are going to be allowed to drive the truck, and that's what it looks like is going to happen.
I totally agree. I don't have a problem with the hire. My problem is with the people doing the hiring.

Please let him hire his own staff and let them do their jobs without meddling from the non football people.
 

bedevil

Well-known member
Were you encouraged by DePo saying he really knew nothing about the NFL until 3 years ago or him implying that he will be the final say on draft picks?
You could see it coming with the seemingly inevitable hiring of Andrew Berry. This is Revenge of the Nerds. DePodesta gets the best of both worlds. He gets a roster of legitimate NFL talent compiled by a down-to-the-sweatshirt football guy and he gets to play with it and use analytics as the method of choice, apparently. You don't have to have the football acumen of a John Dorsey to recognize the needs of the Browns. The issue is who the team will draft and sign to fill those needs and the desperate Jimmy Haslam is putting his franchise in the hands of two people who know numbers, not football to make those decisions. A strong football person needs to be in the room. Intel and intuition should both factor into the equation. To not have strong input from someone who knows the game; someone who can see rather than deduce talent, is insane.
 

clarkgriswold

Well-known member
You could see it coming with the seemingly inevitable hiring of Andrew Berry. This is Revenge of the Nerds. DePodesta gets the best of both worlds. He gets a roster of legitimate NFL talent compiled by a down-to-the-sweatshirt football guy and he gets to play with it and use analytics as the method of choice, apparently. You don't have to have the football acumen of a John Dorsey to recognize the needs of the Browns. The issue is who the team will draft and sign to fill those needs and the desperate Jimmy Haslam is putting his franchise in the hands of two people who know numbers, not football to make those decisions. A strong football person needs to be in the room. Intel and intuition should both factor into the equation. To not have strong input from someone who knows the game; someone who can see rather than deduce talent, is insane.
I heard a portion of Stefanski's appearance on 92.3 this morning and he said the right thing- that the analytics provide important info but are just a part of the formula.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
I'm more concerned about who he brings in as OC and how that dynamic is going to work. It's going to be Stefanski calling the plays. I also wonder if they are going to retain Lindley as QB coach or see if Zampese would be willing to leave Florida and come back to the NFL?
Carolina snapped up Joe Brady so quickly it would seem that they had merely waited on the announcement until after the Championship game.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
Word is they're talking to Brad Childress. He could do a second Browns stint like Ray Horton.
Hopefully a bit differently than Ray.....

He'd maybe be an unofficial "associate HC". His overall experience would seem more valuable than his cutting edge offensive accumen, while it's a bit the reverse with Stefanski. Fungible roles, consensus calls ? Maybe. They certainly are well-acquainted with each other. As long as there is harmony and not the patchwork that Dorsey attempted, I guess he could make sense.
 

clarkgriswold

Well-known member
Hopefully a bit differently than Ray.....

He'd maybe be an unofficial "associate HC". His overall experience would seem more valuable than his cutting edge offensive accumen, while it's a bit the reverse with Stefanski. Fungible roles, consensus calls ? Maybe. They certainly are well-acquainted with each other. As long as there is harmony and not the patchwork that Dorsey attempted, I guess he could make sense.
I remember with Ray that when the hired him the second time around they were still paying him from the first stint. Only the Browns.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
I came across a quote that has been lost in all the discussion with the recent upheaval in Cleveland. It came from John Dorsey and, looking at it now, he might have set himself up for his ouster when he was riding at his highest. On the Freddie Kitchens hire, remember when he said, "I flexed my muscles and got what I wanted."? I'm sure that little bit of arrogance was filed away by DePodesta and even Haslam and was used against him after his hire turned out to be an utter disaster. I'm sure DePodesta is feeling the same way right now, but I hope he doesn't verbalize it. It wouldn't be analytically sound strategy.
I'd take arrogance and fight with him a bit, if I were Haslam. You should not forget that he made that comment in candor after being the Lone Ranger in Sashi's front office. I'd have tried harder to find a way to keep his eye in the building, but maybe it was a longer negotiation than we realize. He made one big mistake, in my mind - Freddie having free reign to hang himself. It was pretty bad timing with a schedule containing far stiffer competition than any of us realized. How many of us underestimated two of the four Conference finalists and their superior on-field leaders ?

I feel certain DePo piled on Dorsey and whispered in Feather-in-the-Wind, childishly frustrated, and clueless Haslam's ear to grease Dorsey's slide out of favor. DePodesta has had his way finally. The Jimmah crosshairs have to be on him now. He will no longer get to sniper and second-guess in hindsight. He may truly be a genius. Sashi and Hue wore the tanking, Dorsey and Freddie spent the picks and made some trades, and now his crew has a clean slate. If the Highsmith/Wolf side is happy for at least a year, maybe it's all good.
 
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cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
My biggest complaint with how the media covers analytics is referring to "the analytics" like all analytics are the same.

You're absolutely correct about the 4th and 1 situation... The way a lot people talk about "analytics" they assume analytics would always say go for it on 4th and 1 because you convert more often than not. That's just not true. Any "analytics" that arrive at that conclusion aren't really analytics at all they are just idiots using a single random statistic. True analytics in the modern era are about bringing together ALL the data at hand to make the best/most informed decision.

Freddie was TERRIBLE at understanding the game situation and factoring in field position/clock/opponent etc etc etc when calling plays... I'm ECSTATIC we are going to have an analytics guy with a radio discussing the game situation and clock as a factor in play-calling. Every team in the NFL should have a clock management coach who makes sure everyone is on top of the current situation. In a 4th and 1 situation next year, we're going to be making different decisions in different situations... As it should be.

Don't believe the media hype about "the analytics." Depodesta and the Browns analytics department are some smart guys. Have you guys seen NFL Next-Gen stats? They are tracking player movements on the field IN REAL-TIME. That's literally, about as precise of measurement data as you can get. Analytics has really evolved in the last decade far beyond what Moneyball even discussed because of how far the tracking technology advanced. Don't make the mistake of thinking this is just some statistics nonsense. It's way bigger than that.
Your first "I'm not trolling you boomers" analytics-related post. Good job, OBCDEFG!!
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
There's a difference between data and statistics. The "next-gen stats" aren't really stats. They're more like an animated version of the chalkboard/whiteboard... Good coaches should honestly appreciate that more than any stats-geek
And Old Boomer Belichick was expertly doing this when you were still trying to figure out your first GameBoy, punk.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
I just heard Adam the Bull (his nickname deserves two more syllables at the end) on 92.3 The Fan come up with an analogy about the value of analytics. With his usual pomposity, he asked a caller whose occupation was a truck driver,, "Wouldn't you like to have someone working at your company who can tell you where police write the most tickets?" The caller conceded that would be good. What I wished the caller would have said was, "Yeah, I'd like that, as long as the guy doesn't tell me how to drive my truck." And that's what I fear is going on in Berea right now. I don't mind having the analytics nerds providing data and trends. I am bothered if they are going to be allowed to drive the truck, and that's what it looks like is going to happen.

Adam Gerstenhaber is the worst hack on the radio around here. He is almost painfully uncomfortable when a new hire is in the honeymoon stage and he "has to" be nice. He really sounds more like a self-loathing little never-was that just lies in wait for the right time to be full-on hater. He is a chronically negative human that is in his element being a total d1ckhead, first and foremost. It's all he knows. Master of the timely hang-up and delay with his callers-in, too. Worse than Trivisono at abusing that game. Typical hack NYC POS.

Really pretty good on most things baseball, though. I'd love to trade him for Chris Rose on the MLB Network.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
I heard a portion of Stefanski's appearance on 92.3 this morning and he said the right thing- that the analytics provide important info but are just a part of the formula.
There was a quote of Dorsey before he was hired. He said that analytics entered into his process "about 15% of the time". I guess DePo disagreed about when to apply stats ?

Dorsey said Baker had "phenomenal accuracy numbers", which he did in Riley's quick-hitting timing offense. Similar results in his NFL rookie year. Then it's Freddie/Monken in a panic instead of doing a few things well out of the front of Haley's playbook. Dorsey said Baker "had the lowest percentage of tipped passes of all the top QB prospects", which was true with Lincoln Riley's offense and a top-ranked O-line. Then Dorsey dumps 33% of a 60% quality O-line and lets Freddie ride play-calling autonomy over the cliff in Hue-like panic. Baker has more tipped balls than most any other starter.

Poor application of the "15%"? Maybe.
 

bedevil

Well-known member
Adam Gerstenhaber is the worst hack on the radio around here. He is almost painfully uncomfortable when a new hire is in the honeymoon stage and he "has to" be nice. He really sounds more like a self-loathing little never-was that just lies in wait for the right time to be full-on hater. He is a chronically negative human that is in his element being a total d1ckhead, first and foremost. It's all he knows. Master of the timely hang-up and delay with his callers-in, too. Worse than Trivisono at abusing that game. Typical hack NYC POS.

Really pretty good on most things baseball, though. I'd love to trade him for Chris Rose on the MLB Network.
He is an adroit second-guesser, one of the best. I don't mind the negativity when it's warranted, and God knows, pro sports around here have given any sports talk host plenty of fodder. But what I can't stand is his "New York" attitude, as though he somehow is on a higher plane because he was on in New York? Who the hell cares, that's geography. Some of the worst announcers I've ever heard had high profile jobs in the New York media, John Sterling chief among them.

Since we're on the topic of The Fan, does Dustin Fox have anything to worry about if his tweet about the Friday game-plan submission is completely debunked? It got a lot of run. I wonder if he'll get run if some of the assertions he made are found to be nothing but hearsay and rumor.
 

bedevil

Well-known member
Chris Rose just said that Andrew Berry is not regarded as a good eye for talent.

Kiss Highsmith's checkbook and keep him around.
I hope Haslam (really nice Feather-in-the-Wind Gump reference, Cabo :)), understands the need for football talent evaluators, despite the bad taste the arrogance of John Dorsey left in his mouth. I'm praying that Wolf and Highsmith stick around, but it's still early enough in the process for them to bolt and still be part of formulating a draft for another team.
 

cabezadecaballo

Well-known member
He is an adroit second-guesser, one of the best. I don't mind the negativity when it's warranted, and God knows, pro sports around here have given any sports talk host plenty of fodder. But what I can't stand is his "New York" attitude, as though he somehow is on a higher plane because he was on in New York? Who the hell cares, that's geography. Some of the worst announcers I've ever heard had high profile jobs in the New York media, John Sterling chief among them.

Since we're on the topic of The Fan, does Dustin Fox have anything to worry about if his tweet about the Friday game-plan submission is completely debunked? It got a lot of run. I wonder if he'll get run if some of the assertions he made are found to be nothing but hearsay and rumor.
My first thought was that Fox got it either from Dorsey on the way out the door, or a Dorsey guy.
 
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