2019 MVL Projections

FeartheRooster said:
I’m specifically speaking about region 12, but you knew that...your arrogant tone is annoying.
Butler was a 4 seed and went 6-4, show me their quality wins? They probably should have lost to Xenia and Piqua too. Piqua was down big at half and just couldn’t complete the comeback. Xenia shot themselves in the foot. That’s neither here nor there really though, all teams have those games they “could have lost” or visa versa. This region is loaded with teams that only beat 2 or 3 teams with winning records and some are 6-4 ��. I would say there are 3 legit teams in this region. Trotwood and Alter without a doubt, CJ would have been but they had to sit the stud QB after 5 for the transfer, and Wapak. The rest are paper champs.
Satisfied?
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Coulda...woulda...shoulda. By that logic had they not lost to Troy, Northmont and Harrison they would have been 10-0. Clown take bro. I love when people say a team “should have lost”, well they didn’t. They overachieved, generated excitement in the community and are building a program. I don’t blame you though I wouldn’t like it either. Bout to be a bad decade for the haters.
 
TippIsGreat said:
Troy, Tipp, Butler, Piqua in that order then everyone else.
Troy is the team to beat until proven otherwise, Tipp has proven that it can beat Butler even if they aren’t as talented. And Tipp will be much improved from last year. Butler loses a lot but will still be competitive. Piqua lost a lot as well but they always seem to be competitive. Troy loses probably more than anyone, but I expect them to still be good.
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If you think Tipp finishes that high in this league, I want what you are smoking.
 
freedom_isnt_free said:
Coulda...woulda...shoulda. By that logic had they not lost to Troy, Northmont and Harrison they would have been 10-0. Clown take bro. I love when people say a team “should have lost”, well they didn’t. They overachieved, generated excitement in the community and are building a program. I don’t blame you though I wouldn’t like it either. Bout to be a bad decade for the haters.
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You must not have read my whole post I said that’s neither here nor there. Nobody is playing the “if they caught this ball” or “if my son played qb”, however, I was using their top wins against them! Did you notice that?
Those were two of their top wins and they almost blew it. ? hmm But obviously you’re too blindfolded to realize how those wins look to people actually evaluating Butlers season. They’ve created real buzz which is nice for school that just had Hyatt. Puckett is an actual coach that can compete with the staffs of Troy/Piqua, but let’s not get too excited.
I can’t beleive you just said it’s going to be a bad decade for the haters. You’re a clown for that comment man. Haha I can’t even argue with that corny stuff.
 
bucks_27 said:
If you think Tipp finishes that high in this league, I want what you are smoking.
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Why is that not a believable finish?

Tipp was obviously down last year, even having some sophomores starting. Yet, they still only had 2 games last year out of reach (Northmont, Troy). Sidney was a close loss, and Tipp absolutely botched the end of the Piqua game and lost by 1. They even beat Butler, who overachieved last season and made the playoffs.

Tipp could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th next year. Obviously the coaching hire will have a big factor in that, but I definitely wouldn't count them out as a contender yet.
 
OHFball10 said:
Why is that not a believable finish?

Tipp was obviously down last year, even having some sophomores starting. Yet, they still only had 2 games last year out of reach (Northmont, Troy). Sidney was a close loss, and Tipp absolutely botched the end of the Piqua game and lost by 1. They even beat Butler, who overachieved last season and made the playoffs.

Tipp could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th next year. Obviously the coaching hire will have a big factor in that, but I definitely wouldn't count them out as a contender yet.
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Exactly, although Josh Riffell tearing his ACL last week is a significant blow
 
I think people are sleeping on Sidney. They're going to have a ton of athletes/skilled players back. They're going to have to figure out the QB position and how to minimize the turnovers, but if they can do that they're gonna score points. We'll see if they can continue to improve the defense that dropped 11 points/game given up from 2017 to 2018.
 
NewJacketCity said:
I think people are sleeping on Sidney. They're going to have a ton of athletes/skilled players back. They're going to have to figure out the QB position and how to minimize the turnovers, but if they can do that they're gonna score points. We'll see if they can continue to improve the defense that dropped 11 points/game given up from 2017 to 2018.
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People are going to continue to sleep on Sidney until that staff wakes up! They do too many silly things on offense trying to be “creative”. They did make some nice strides on defense like you said. In 2017, they were a complete tire fire! Did they hire new defensive coaches in 18’ or meet with other staffs to straighten them out? They always have athletes at Sidney, knowing what to do with those athletes is what matters. I think they have a good chance at being 4th or 5th in the conference next year. I could see Doenges trying to slide over to that Versailles job. Have you heard if he plans on staying in Sidney much longer?
 
Barbershoptalk said:
People are going to continue to sleep on Sidney until that staff wakes up! They do too many silly things on offense trying to be “creative”. They did make some nice strides on defense like you said. In 2017, they were a complete tire fire! Did they hire new defensive coaches in 18’ or meet with other staffs to straighten them out? They always have athletes at Sidney, knowing what to do with those athletes is what matters. I think they have a good chance at being 4th or 5th in the conference next year. I could see Doenges trying to slide over to that Versailles job. Have you heard if he plans on staying in Sidney much longer?
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I haven't heard anything on him. My guess is unless there's a push from the Vespa Club or people outside of the school system, I think unfortunately Doenges is gonna be around as long as he wants to be. I think Doenges has done a great job of recruiting kids to the program, but their game planning and play calling are awful. I've just kind of come to grips it is what it is. Good coaching and I think this could be a 7-8 win team. I'm guessing it will end up more like a 4-5 win. Question is how many of those years before people start pushing for change? I don't know that answer.
 
FeartheRooster said:
You must not have read my whole post I said that’s neither here nor there. Nobody is playing the “if they caught this ball” or “if my son played qb”, however, I was using their top wins against them! Did you notice that?
Those were two of their top wins and they almost blew it. �� hmm But obviously you’re too blindfolded to realize how those wins look to people actually evaluating Butlers season. They’ve created real buzz which is nice for school that just had Hyatt. Puckett is an actual coach that can compete with the staffs of Troy/Piqua, but let’s not get too excited.
I can’t beleive you just said it’s going to be a bad decade for the haters. You’re a clown for that comment man. Haha I can’t even argue with that corny stuff.
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Point is given the athletes in the community, top notch facilities, and now actual coaches there is no reason why Butler shouldn't be in the conversation every single year. Again the excitement was seeing the buy in from the kids in Puckett's first season. He has his work cut out for him because senior and junior numbers are low. Not putting that all on Hyatt but the culture or lack thereof significantly hurt the program. Puckett now has to role with arguably the youngest team in the MVL in 2019 so it will be tough. BUT....I see no reason why this team cannot and will not be a tough out for many years to come beginning in 2020. My haters comment is to those that still think Butler is the rollover, easy win that they had been for nearly a decade. MVL teams are going to have to bring it....on the flipside Butler will have to as well. Like I said in an earlier post the MVL will have more parity than the GWOC did.
 
freedom_isnt_free said:
Point is given the athletes in the community, top notch facilities, and now actual coaches there is no reason why Butler shouldn't be in the conversation every single year. Again the excitement was seeing the buy in from the kids in Puckett's first season. He has his work cut out for him because senior and junior numbers are low. Not putting that all on Hyatt but the culture or lack thereof significantly hurt the program. Puckett now has to role with arguably the youngest team in the MVL in 2019 so it will be tough. BUT....I see no reason why this team cannot and will not be a tough out for many years to come beginning in 2020. My haters comment is to those that still think Butler is the rollover, easy win that they had been for nearly a decade. MVL teams are going to have to bring it....on the flipside Butler will have to as well. Like I said in an earlier post the MVL will have more parity than the GWOC did.
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Finalky, I agree with you, no reason they aren’t competitive. But I don’t even think that Butler has been considered a rollover for many teams except for the Hyatt years. Even then we always know what Butler brings to the table as far as competitiveness, ability, and toughness etc. They play hard and seem to always have a couple guys on both sides of the ball that are tough, gritty, and athletic. Puckett brings a mentality and that (like you mentioned) was missing. If they buy in Puckett will be around for a while because they’ll get at least 7 wins a year.
 
I am excited to see this league while I view the overall quality of the league in football and basketball as subpar. Great baseball league!

Troy
Xenia
Piqua
Butler
Tipp
Sidney
Fairborn
Greenville
West Carrollton
Stebbins

I hope people are not overlooking Xenia. Winning last year as well as beating Trotwood. Those boys started to buy into what Coach Smitherman was selling. I think with the triple in this league they will be very dangerous. None of these teams except Troy have been close to the caliber of Trotwood. 3-8 are toss ups. The only for sure is that Stebbins and the Pirates will be at the bottom.
 
HistoryTeacher said:
I am excited to see this league while I view the overall quality of the league in football and basketball as subpar. Great baseball league!

Troy
Xenia
Piqua
Butler
Tipp
Sidney
Fairborn
Greenville
West Carrollton
Stebbins

I hope people are not overlooking Xenia. Winning last year as well as beating Trotwood. Those boys started to buy into what Coach Smitherman was selling. I think with the triple in this league they will be very dangerous. None of these teams except Troy have been close to the caliber of Trotwood. 3-8 are toss ups. The only for sure is that Stebbins and the Pirates will be at the bottom.
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Agree with you on Xenia and they also have the male enrollment numbers to become a powerhouse. 508 to Troy's 513 enrolled males. Also like your preseason early guess at the standings. I think 4 thru 7 are a toss up based on what those teams have coming back and new coaches at Fairborn and Tipp.

Piqua & especially Sidney have a lot of returning starters so you may have Sidney a little low. Fairborn has the most returning starters in the MVL with a new staff so maybe they will get it going. Tipp will have a new coach and may be going through an offense transition & along with Troy have the "fewest" returning starters, so could have a mediocre transition year. Troy should just reload though with 49 seniors & juniors on the roster. Won't be as strong as last season but should still take the MVL with their staff & numbers. Butler with only 13 juniors & seniors on the roster will have at least 9 to replace including all skill players on an offense that was not overpowering, but will return a good experienced defense minus two very good defenders. Greenville & West Carrollton will have new staffs and along with Stebbins will probably be bringing up the rear.

Still early to predict much more. Could change slightly if the rumor about Troy's Burgbacher going to Tipp has any truth to it and if he takes any staff with him.
 
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OHFball10 said:
Why is that not a believable finish?

Tipp was obviously down last year, even having some sophomores starting. Yet, they still only had 2 games last year out of reach (Northmont, Troy). Sidney was a close loss, and Tipp absolutely botched the end of the Piqua game and lost by 1. They even beat Butler, who overachieved last season and made the playoffs.

Tipp could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th next year. Obviously the coaching hire will have a big factor in that, but I definitely wouldn't count them out as a contender yet.
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Looking at their GWOC stats on Defense, almost all stat leaders last year were Seniors. Maybe a down year but they were still starting a lot of Seniors so not sure why they will be better.
 
2019 MVL Schedules

Stebbins plays all 9 MVL Opponents
Troy - 8 does not play WC
Tipp - 8 does not play Sidney
Butler 8 does not play Sidney
Piqua 8 Does not play Fairborn
Greenville 8 Does not play Xenia
Fairborn 8 Does not play Piqua
Xenia 7 Does not play WC or Greenville
Sidney 7 Does not play Butler or Tipp
WC 7 Does not play Troy or Xenia
 
2019 MVL Strength of Schedule based upon last years opponents overall records. Strongest Strength of Schedule Top to Bottom. (Toughest schedule - Xenia, Weakest Schedule - West Carrollton)

1. Xenia .500 40-40
2. Troy .478 43-47 (FB beat WC & gives Troy slightly tougher schedule than Piqua)
3. Piqua .478 43-47
4. Stebbins .450 45-55
5. Butler .444 40-50
6. Tipp .444 40-50 (Tipp beat Butler head to head)
7. Fairborn .433 39-51
8. Sidney .425 34-46
9. Greenville .422 38-52
10.West C'llton .351 29-51
 
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I think with the departure of the burgbachers the conference gets interesting. Obliviously Troy is still the favorite but tipp could shake things up next year. I’m most familiar with Sidney and believe they could make a strong push if they can figure out the offense and defensive lines as they may be weak at those positions and in this league you won’t win no matter what kind of athletes you have back there. Also for Sidney I witnessed #24 hurt Bellefontaine pretty bad why did he not play much after?
 
Looking at the schedule no reason Vandalia couldn’t go 8-2 or 7-3 this year. They take out Troy early the league is there’s.
 
Chisel said:
I think with the departure of the burgbachers the conference gets interesting. Obliviously Troy is still the favorite but tipp could shake things up next year.
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Troy is still the team to beat & they are not hurting for talent. They lose a lot of starters but they have their All Division QB Siler returning who had the #3 QB rating in the GWOC for passing & he also runs. They return their Kicker (Siler) & their Punter & their leading punt returner Weston Smith. They have a good RB in Kevin Walters 6.5 yds per carry and a couple of experienced receivers returning. They return Riley Hubbard a 2nd team All Division O-Lineman but will need to replace several O-Linemen. Defensively Troy will need to replace most of the defense with the exception of All Division DB Weston Smith who led the entire GWOC in Interceptions with 5 and Defensive Linemen Austin Good & Adam Decerbo who return & combined for 79 tackles & 2.5 Sacks. With a league leading 45 returning upperclassmen they should have no problem filling the holes left by graduation.

In the last 3 years Troy is 20-0 against MVL teams by a score of 738-218 an average score of 36.9 - 10.9. If Troy keeps the rest of their staff together after the departure of the Burgbachers they will be in good shape to make a run for their 4th consecutive title.
 
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BleedPurple&Gold said:
We could be back to the GMVC days when we have a 10-0 team and not make the playoffs. Especially if the bottom feeders stay the way they are already.


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That might be a big problem. Olentangy made the playoffs at 5-5 in the same region this past year because they had 6 DI teams on their schedule. Troy is going to have a lot of DIII teams this year. They are going to have to run the table or only lose 1 game at most. None of their wins are going to be impressive.
 
Just throwing this out there... Any chance the MVL adds a small school division and invites Miami East, Covington, Ft Loramie, Bethel and other small schools? Won't have to have crossovers of course.


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BleedPurple&Gold said:
We could be back to the GMVC days when we have a 10-0 team and not make the playoffs. Especially if the bottom feeders stay the way they are already.


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I think the saving grace for Butler will be the fact that they are DIII. The days of 6-4 and making the playoffs are long gone, but honestly those teams really don't have a legit shot of making much postseason noise anyways.

7-3 will likely get it done in most years. The difference now would be seeding. In the GWOC North a 7-3 DIII is hosting a playoff game, but that may not be the case going forward.

The moral of the story is if Butler truly has a "playoff caliber" team, they will be in. Bubble teams will likely stay home and rightfully so. The DII teams on the other hand will have to be damn near perfect.
 
ButlerAviator83 said:
I think the saving grace for Butler will be the fact that they are DIII. The days of 6-4 and making the playoffs are long gone, but honestly those teams really don't have a legit shot of making much postseason noise anyways.

7-3 will likely get it done in most years. The difference now would be seeding. In the GWOC North a 7-3 DIII is hosting a playoff game, but that may not be the case going forward.

The moral of the story is if Butler truly has a "playoff caliber" team, they will be in. Bubble teams will likely stay home and rightfully so. The DII teams on the other hand will have to be damn near perfect.
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Butler is 4 boys away from being DII so they are likely to fluctuate Divisions on a yearly basis. I think your assessment is correct. If Butler does get bumped up to DII 8-2 may not get you in unless you beat a really good team week 1 non-conference game.
 
VBHSFB04 said:
Butler is 4 boys away from being DII so they are likely to fluctuate Divisions on a yearly basis. I think your assessment is correct. If Butler does get bumped up to DII 8-2 may not get you in unless you beat a really good team week 1 non-conference game.
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Butler and Piqua fluctuating between D2 and D3 may help Tipp a lot, especially if they are in D2
 
VBHSFB04 said:
Butler is 4 boys away from being DII so they are likely to fluctuate Divisions on a yearly basis. I think your assessment is correct. If Butler does get bumped up to DII 8-2 may not get you in unless you beat a really good team week 1 non-conference game.
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That’s right scheduling is crucial. Some years Vandalia was already behind the 8 ball having to play Northmont and Perry. Those are two teams that a school the size of Vandalia isn’t going to beat and you’re down two games that are crucial. Vandalia and Piqua have to be smart about who that open week is against each year. Cannot be a team that you will lose to. A win is always worth more than a loss. I’d like to see Vandalia pick up Oakwood or another SWBL team for week 1 each year.
 
TheBenchwarmer said:
That’s right scheduling is crucial. Some years Vandalia was already behind the 8 ball having to play Northmont and Perry. Those are two teams that a school the size of Vandalia isn’t going to beat and you’re down two games that are crucial. Vandalia and Piqua have to be smart about who that open week is against each year. Cannot be a team that you will lose to. A win is always worth more than a loss. I’d like to see Vandalia pick up Oakwood or another SWBL team for week 1 each year.
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Bradford might be available
 
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