2014 Central District

AWESOME job aquacard, thanks much, I would imagine with scs relays moving up the projection would have been closer to 40, thanks again will be interesting to see where everyone stands after sectionals and how the numbers move around
 
aquacard, thanks for scoring the meet. However, your analysis is a little off. The Bears will move up each week with faster times across the board. They will not taper for sectionals and still will win handily. At district only the bottom part of the team will be tapered. Trace probably won't suit up. Newcome, Kibbe, Mamo and Reardon may suit up but they won't be fully rested. That's the only way the district stays somewhat close.
 
rjones, it's great to be a fan...but if you want to be taken seriously you have to acknowledge reality. Yes Trace can move to states without a full taper, but the others will need the taper to move on. aquacard is right that the bottom 4 or 5 on UA's team will have to taper at sectionals to make district. You will see a significant time drop from the lower end and then, at best, they will match the time at district. The same is true by the way for 1 or 2 of the SC boys.
 
Some very good swimming yesterday. Here's how the district scores based on yesterday's times:

UA - 283
SC - 235
Coffman - 188
Jerome - 140
West. Central - 134
Darby - 132
Olentangy - 127
NA -113
Liberty - 104
Scioto - 103
Mt. Vernon -79
Pick. North - 70
Grove City - 70
Delaware -65
Kilbourne - 59
West. N - 57
Davidson -46
Marysville -34
West. South - 33
Lancaster - 30
Bradley - 28
Gahanna - 17
Northland - 10
Pick Central - 8
Thomas - 3

Now here are the number of individual swims each school qualified followed by the number of those swims in the top 16

UA - 27 swims / 17 in top 16
SC - 32 swims / 20 in top 16
Coffman - 15 swims / 10 top 16
Jerome - 10 swims / 6 in top 16
West. Central - 6 swims / 4 in top 16
Darby - 13 swims / 7 in top 16
Olentangy - 10 swims / 7 in top 16
NA - 9 swims / 5 in top 16
Liberty - 13 swims / 7 in top 16
Scioto - 10 swims / 5 in top 16
Mt. Vernon - 5 swims / 4 in top 16
Pick. North - 8 swims / 3 in top 16
Grove City - 7 swims / 4 in top 16
Delaware -8 swims / 3 in top 16
Kilbourne - 8 swims / 3 in top 16
West. N - 4 swims / 4 in top 16
Davidson -7 swims / 3 in top 16
Marysville - 4 swims / 2 in top 16
West. South - 5 swims / 2 in top 16
Lancaster - 5 swims / 2 in top 16
Bradley - 2 swims / 2 in top 16
Gahanna - 6 swims / 2 in top 16
Northland - 1 swim / 1 in top 16
Pick Central - 4 swims / 0 in top 16
Thomas - 9 swims / 1 in top 16

Looking at the relays, clearly SC's were all unstacked giving them plenty of room to move up at the district. UA remains the favorite, but they will have to swim fast to hold off SC. Just looking at the numbers SC has a lot of chances to improve. Both with the number of swims qualified and where they are in the top sixteen. There is lots of room to drop time for the districts big guns.
 
Looked like what you said aquacard on ua guys suited only Gorski and Watson appear to be potential scorers, lots of SC guys suited as well maybe 1/2 the team, will be interested if those kids can hold places, diving might be the difference this year!
 
Saturday the Bears get serious and begin their drive to Canton. Here's how it will go:

Medley: UA, Hilliard Darby, Central
200 Free: Weaver, Newcome, Horton
200 IM: Cook, Reardon, Kibbe
50 Free: Trace, Scott, Whitaker
Diving: Thatcher, Holstein, Atha
100 Fly: Miller, Higdon, Hamilton
100 Free: Miller, Scott, Weaver
500 Free: Cook, Newcome, Kibbe
200 Relay: UA, Coffman, Jerome
100 Back: Trace, Reardon, Saczawa
100 Breast: Fisher, Dawson, Welty
400 Relay: UA, Coffman, Jerome

UA wins the meet by 100+; Coffman edges SC for second. SC clearly tapered for the sectional meet and will not move up at district. And the Bears will just keep going faster!
 
Love your optimism rjones, although your predictions are a bit tilted toward UA...what a surprise! While UA is my pick to win the district, it is not so open and shut as you suggest. And it will be shocking if the margin is 100+ points... more like 20 to 30 points. SC will be a solid second and if they have a great meet and catch a few breaks and help from other swimmers they could pull an upset. It would be fun to see the meet decided by the 400 free relay. Coffman is very good this year but they don't have the numbers to challenge SC or UA. Part of what makes it uncertain who wins is the top talent that is spread throughout the district. Hopefully everyone will swim fast and the meet is not decided by a DQ. Good luck to all!
 
Wasn't able to make it to the district meet and couldn't find any results. Heard SC won districts this year. Can anyone confirm?
 
congrats to all the swimmers on a great district meet yesterday, lots of great swims probably the biggest central district contingent ever heading to canton, especially a congrats to sc for the win, and specifically max penn who went back to back 2nd places in the back and breast, he along with hannes kabelka were the big move up places that made the difference as the bears still won 4 events and swam well, naac deserve a lot of credit as that is where max trains to get him ready for that double, good luck to all next week!
 
I thought all the SC guys swim in during the high school season. Regardless, kudos to Geoff Gear on his lineup. As usual he sandbagged the rest of the district on the relays and in the 500. When was the last time someone won a relay from the 2nd heat? A masterful strategy that guaranteed the SC boys smooth water as they had a half a pool or better lead for the 3rd & 4th swimmer. They won the relay by about a second. Going in it looked like UA would bury the Cardinals in the 500. SC's top 3 swimmers dropped significant time to move up the scoring ladder with the younger Kabelka moving onto to the podium and jumping 2 of UA's swimmers. SC's second swimmer in the 500 jumped 1 of UA's swimmers. That significantly cut UA's scoring advantage in the 500. UA did benefit more than any other team in increasing their points (total of 7) from the unfortunate DQ of Lancaster's Ryan Depietro for wearing an illegal swim cap. Surprised he wasn't DQed in the IM as he wore the same cap. Gear was properly voted coach of the year. Congatulations to the Cards and their coach! Hey rjones what happened to the 100+ points?
 
Agree with you aquacard about the strategy, sc has I think 4 boys that train out mostly full time, Penn ritchey welty w naac and beam w ossc, I also think von schriltz and dickmann deserve a ton of props for the coffman and Hilliard boys performance
 
The SC boys sure came to race and as the meet went on and the score stayed close, Geoff's boys really got revved up to close the deal. It was an exciting meet for sure. Loudest District that I have been too. Let's give it up for Thomas Trace winning the back and a solid 20.6 in the 50. He also split 20.2 in the 2FR. Miller's 48 fly was also impressive. Great to see such a diverse group representing Central Ohio in Canton. Good Luck to all.
 
It truly was a great meet. Probably the deepest the district has been in years…certainly the second fastest in the state. Central District qualified 51 at large swims, second to the SW's 68 and well ahead of the NE (40) & NW (25).

Impressed with a number of swimmers and teams. Coffman swam really really well. They lose a very talented senior class. And although UA finished second, they did not swim poorly...especially their seniors. Trace & Newcome did what was expected... who knew that a 1:44 finishes 8th in the 200. But the extraordinary performance for UA was by Baas. He scored in the 50 dropping over a second and came out of no where dropping a ton of time (4+seconds) in the 100 breast. Despite the fine effort by UA they just didn't have the numbers to top SC. The lower half of their team had to taper for sectionals to be certain to get to the district. As a result most dropped lower in the standings as they could not improve on their time.

It looks like another changing of the guard for the team title as SC will be a strong favorite next year. Although they lose 4 seniors...their underclassmen swam very well and will just get faster. They still lack the number of top heaters needed to score well in the state meet. It will be interesting to see if their relays can move up and they can crack the top 5 in team scores. I betting they were fully tapered for the district meet and will have a difficult time holding their places at the state meet. Next year even with the loss of Kabelka and Penn, they have plenty of firepower returning to defend their district title. Olentangy may be their toughest competition if UA doesn't bring in some contributing freshmen. SC's bench is deep as their numbers are impressive.

Good luck to all in the state meet this week. All who can hold their time can expect to move up.
 
swimfan, i channeled my inner aquacard during the ice storm here in town and did a quick move up point total, dont think there is any chance of olentangy challenging sc or ua, i think they will be next years coffman, here is what i had for move up points:
sc-235--3 strong relays
ua-167--2.5 strong relays
olen-79--2 strong relays

i would think jerome and scioto will be close to olentangy as well, as far as freshman, i know sc gets at least two of osscs good swimmers (gutman and schiu (sp?)), ua gets a really good diver and 3 solid swimmers, but they are going to have to swim really well to challenge sc next year

one note, it will be interesting to see what ua does in the medley, they have a couple of seconds to improve with the weak free leg this week at states


swimfan said:
It truly was a great meet. Probably the deepest the district has been in years…certainly the second fastest in the state. Central District qualified 51 at large swims, second to the SW's 68 and well ahead of the NE (40) & NW (25).

Impressed with a number of swimmers and teams. Coffman swam really really well. They lose a very talented senior class. And although UA finished second, they did not swim poorly...especially their seniors. Trace & Newcome did what was expected... who knew that a 1:44 finishes 8th in the 200. But the extraordinary performance for UA was by Baas. He scored in the 50 dropping over a second and came out of no where dropping a ton of time (4+seconds) in the 100 breast. Despite the fine effort by UA they just didn't have the numbers to top SC. The lower half of their team had to taper for sectionals to be certain to get to the district. As a result most dropped lower in the standings as they could not improve on their time.

It looks like another changing of the guard for the team title as SC will be a strong favorite next year. Although they lose 4 seniors...their underclassmen swam very well and will just get faster. They still lack the number of top heaters needed to score well in the state meet. It will be interesting to see if their relays can move up and they can crack the top 5 in team scores. I betting they were fully tapered for the district meet and will have a difficult time holding their places at the state meet. Next year even with the loss of Kabelka and Penn, they have plenty of firepower returning to defend their district title. Olentangy may be their toughest competition if UA doesn't bring in some contributing freshmen. SC's bench is deep as their numbers are impressive.

Good luck to all in the state meet this week. All who can hold their time can expect to move up.
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swimfan said:
It looks like another changing of the guard for the team title as SC will be a strong favorite next year.
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Not so fast swimfan. Maybe a strong favorite for 2nd. Enjoy the win now SC as the Bears will be back next year with a vengeance. It will become apparent this weekend that UA is focused on the state meet not the district. As usual, the Bears will top SC when it counts...just like at the Ned Reeb and their dual meet this season. Right now UA has won twice and SC twice (and the sectional really doesn't count). This weekend will be the rubber match.
 
rjones said:
Not so fast swimfan. Maybe a strong favorite for 2nd. Enjoy the win now SC as the Bears will be back next year with a vengeance. It will become apparent this weekend that UA is focused on the state meet not the district. As usual, the Bears will top SC when it counts...just like at the Ned Reeb and their dual meet this season. Right now UA has won twice and SC twice (and the sectional really doesn't count). This weekend will be the rubber match.
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Bold talk rjones, but let's look at your most recent prediction and the actual results.

rjones said:
Saturday the Bears get serious and begin their drive to Canton. Here's how it will go:

Medley: UA, Hilliard Darby, Central - SC, Darby, UA
200 Free: Weaver, Newcome, Horton - Horton, Kabelka, Weaver - Newcome actually finished 8th
200 IM: Cook, Reardon, Kibbe - Reardon, Depeitro, Cook - Kibbe actually finished 10th (a great swim for a freshman)
50 Free: Trace, Scott, Whitaker - Trace, Scott, Martin
Diving: Thatcher, Holstein, Atha - Thatcher, Dinsmore, White - Holstein finished 9th
100 Fly: Miller, Higdon, Hamilton - Miller, Higdon, Dickman - Hamilton finished 13th
100 Free: Miller, Scott, Weaver - Miller, Scott, Horton
500 Free: Cook, Newcome, Kibbe - Newcome, Cook, Orlov - Kibbe finished 5th (another strong swim for the freshman)
200 Relay: UA, Coffman, Jerome - SC, Coffman, UA
100 Back: Trace, Reardon, Saczawa - Trace, Penn, Saczawa - Reardon finished 4th
100 Breast: Fisher, Dawson, Welty - Welty, Penn, Mayo - Fisher finished 8th
400 Relay: UA, Coffman, Jerome - Coffman, Jerome, SC - UA finished 5th

Don't get me wrong the Arlington boys swam very well, just not in line with your predictions rjones. UA lost because this year SC is a deeper team with the numbers to counteract UA's stars.

UA wins the meet by 100+; Coffman edges SC for second. SC clearly tapered for the sectional meet and will not move up at district. And the Bears will just keep going faster!
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Needless to say UA did not win by 100+ points nor did Coffman edge SC. All SC's swimmers dropped time in the district (the same was not true for UA's swimmers. As predicted the bottom of UA's squad clearly had tapered for the sectional and did not move up or drop time at the district.

And swimfan is right, SC will be a strong favorite to repeat next year. As of now it has significantly more individual points coming back. So as usual rjones you have not let the facts get into your way!

Of more interest is who is the top freshman this year. It seems to be between Kibbe from UA and Kabelka from SC. Kibbe seemed to step up all year for the Bears. Kabelka came on strong in the district meet. Anyone have thoughts about this?
 
Kibbe is indeed a very strong swimmer in his events -- some great swims for a Freshman! It'll be interesting to see how he does in some other events in the future. I think the 500 at Districts was only the 3rd time the younger Kabelka swam the event during his entire high school season. He was originally training for 50 free/100 free. Kabelka is still young enough to swim JOs so it might be more apparent in the next few weeks what his strengths are.

Looking at the results from Central District, it's encouraging to see the number of fast Freshman and Sophomore swimmers from so many different schools. The young talent here is fast and seemingly more spread out among different clubs and schools.
 
aquacard said:
Of more interest is who is the top freshman this year. It seems to be between Kibbe from UA and Kabelka from SC. Kibbe seemed to step up all year for the Bears. Kabelka came on strong in the district meet. Anyone have thoughts about this?
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How about Carson Barnes from NA. The only freshman to qualify for the state meet. I would place him on top. That said UA & SC each had 3 freshman on their district teams. Kibbe for UA scored - got the podium in the 500 and swam on 1 of UA's relays. All 3 of SC's freshmen scored points. Kabelka made the podium twice in individual events + 2 relays. Kibbe may eventually be the strongest swimmer from this year's crop of freshman, but SC looks like they have the most overall talent. It wil be interesting to see who improves significantly next year.
 
Good call dutchman, Barnes had a great swim, those three seemed to be clear cut as the best, I think ua had 4 freshman at the meet and a 5th whose time at the ua invite would have made it but he didn't make the 500 lineup, but that is splitting hairs, ironically sugar trained w ua until high school I think, lots of good young talent in the area and a lot of good clubs w ossc, uasc, wac, gcsto, usa, dublin, naac, etc exciting for the future!
 
Congratulations to Coffman and Jerome on their state meet performances. Both teams moved up on their projected scores. That means their swimmers either held their time or swam faster. Both UA & SC had relays DQed which dropped them down in the standings. And with the exception of Trace it doesn't look like they were able to hold their seeds or district times. That would indicate the both teams tapered for the district. While it will stay competitive for the district team title for the near future it looks like the state team title (and maybe a top 5 finish) is not going to happen for the teams in the Central District.
 
agree with the top 5 finish, newcome from ua dropped nearly 2 seconds in the 500 and moved up to 7, their medley relay also dropped nearly 2 seconds!
 
You are correct. I overlooked Newcome who had 2 fine swims in the 500. As for the medley, the lineup changed and moving Trace to the anchor probably accounted for most of the drop. I didn't understand the District lineup for UA in the medley anyway. Reardon in the back and Trace either anchoring or swimming the 400R always made more sense to me. Reardon had an event available...of course, deBear may not have used him in the medley because of the IM, although that didn't stop him from placing him in the medley at the state meet.
 
You all are overlooking what UA has coming back and coming in! Not only do they reclaim the district title, but they will finish top 5 easily, if not top 3.
 
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