2022 CFP Projections

adselder09 said:
What? You're the first person I've seen even try to argue this take. Everyone knew the Buckeyes were falling behind USC this week, it happened in every single Poll.

The SOS I find hard to believe. Both played and beat Notre Dame at home. Ohio State played at top 10 Penn State and hosted top 2 Michigan, but the rest of their schedule wasn't any good. USC played at #11 Utah, at top 20 UCLA and Oregon State, though they did avoid Oregon and Washington.

Ohio State has the best win between the two, at Penn State but USC has two road wins that are better than Ohio State's next best win (which also happens to be another ranked win on USC's resume). At best this is a push.

The Ohio State loss, albeit to a better and higher ranked team was at home by more than 20. USC lost by one point, in the final minute to a top 11 team. Advantage USC.

And then there's the recency bias which always comes into play in November games. Ohio State was only up 3 late in the 4th against middle of the B1G Maryland and lost to Michigan by 20. USC was beating it's cross-town rival and ranked UCLA on the road and then beating ranked Notre Dame at home. The Trojans have been playing better football than Ohio State has.
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Comparing resumes between the two is easy. OSU has a way better road win and a top 10 victory. OSU has a better SOS wins. The ND game is a washout. OSU loss was a close game until the final 7 minutes. USC got beat by a 3 LOSS team! OSU has won 11 games by double digits. USC barely beat UCLA and Oregon State. If the Michigan game would have been played in early October with the same results are you telling me USC would still be 4th right now? You are nuts.
 
Orin Swift said:
Well unless TCU, USC and possibly UGA lose, that is.
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There’s no way I’d put Ohio State above any of those teams even if they lose this Saturday. Maybe if there were a huge blowout loss, but that’s the extent of it.

The Big Ten is a one-bid league this year. There is no earthly justification for putting in two teams from a Charmin soft conference. Especially when the team in question looked mediocre all November and just lost by 22 at home in a revenge game.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
There’s no way I’d put Ohio State above any of those teams even if they lose this Saturday. Maybe if there were a huge blowout loss, but that’s the extent of it.

The Big Ten is a one-bid league this year. There is no earthly justification for putting in two teams from a Charmin soft conference. Especially when the team in question looked mediocre all November and just lost by 22 at home in a revenge game.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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If TCU loses by 1 OSU is in. The playoffs are always biased towards OSU. All about money
 
Voice said:
Comparing resumes between the two is easy. OSU has a way better road win and a top 10 victory. OSU has a better SOS wins. The ND game is a washout. OSU loss was a close game until the final 7 minutes. USC got beat by a 3 LOSS team! OSU has won 11 games by double digits. USC barely beat UCLA and Oregon State. If the Michigan game would have been played in early October with the same results are you telling me USC would still be 4th right now? You are nuts.
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Winning at UCLA at night is easily more impressive than winning at mediocre Sean Clifford and Penn State in a noon game. Penn State isn’t very good. They’re laughably overrated. It’s just the rest of the Big Ten is so devoid of any semblance of quality, no one else beat Penn State.

Notre Dame was playing way, way better football at the end of the year than when they had Buchner at QB in Week 1, so I give USC’s win over Notre Dame a bit higher regard than Ohio State’s win over ND.

The Pac 12 is a much deeper, tougher conference this year than the Big Ten. Barring a gigantic loss to Utah Friday night or Caleb Williams suffering a season-ending injury, I’m putting USC in over Ohio State even if they lose a close one Friday night.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

P.S. Utah is a very good, dangerous team. Winning a night game at Rice-Eccles is extremely tough to do. That’s something Ohio State wouldn’t know anything about since they didn’t play a single road night game.
 
Raider6309 said:
If TCU loses by 1 OSU is in. The playoffs are always biased towards OSU. All about money
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Money is the only reason to put Ohio State in. They know people will tune in for the comedic relief of watching Ohio State lose to the SEC again.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
Voice said:
Comparing resumes between the two is easy. OSU has a way better road win and a top 10 victory. OSU has a better SOS wins. The ND game is a washout. OSU loss was a close game until the final 7 minutes. USC got beat by a 3 LOSS team! OSU has won 11 games by double digits. USC barely beat UCLA and Oregon State. If the Michigan game would have been played in early October with the same results are you telling me USC would still be 4th right now? You are nuts.
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If we're talking game control, then in USC's only loss they led the entire game, only to have the Utes go ahead by 1 in the final minute on a 2-point conversion.

Ohio State lost by 22! At home no less. Their resume's are splitting hairs, but USC has been impressive against ranked teams lately. Ohio State was unimpressive against Maryland and lost to Michigan. Simple as that.
 
AEW Champion said:
There’s no way I’d put Ohio State above any of those teams even if they lose this Saturday. Maybe if there were a huge blowout loss, but that’s the extent of it.
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It's an interesting argument. The CFP Chairman said last night that these teams in the Conference Championship Games get a "bonus" game and they were excited to see them all play again. There have been plenty of years where the conference title results have knocked out a contender for the National Championship. But when those 4-teams are all playing one extra game, is that fair when Ohio State and Alabama are sitting idle because they didn't qualify.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Remind me again who won the national championship in the 2014 season. When is the last time ND has won a CFP game.
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Remind me which conference has won 12 of the past 16 national championships.

And for all the chest-beating out of Columbus, the Buckeyes have one single CFP semifinal victory since the 2014 championship over *checks notes* Blake Sims. Lording over the Big Ten hasn’t done them much good once it comes time to play the best teams in the country.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Remind me which conference has won 12 of the past 16 national championships.

And for all the chest-beating out of Columbus, the Buckeyes have one single CFP semifinal victory since the 2014 championship over *checks notes* Blake Sims. Lording over the Big Ten hasn’t done them much good once it comes time to play the best teams in the country.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Trevor Lawrence and Clemson.
 
AEW Champion said:
There’s no way I’d put Ohio State above any of those teams even if they lose this Saturday. Maybe if there were a huge blowout loss, but that’s the extent of it.

The Big Ten is a one-bid league this year. There is no earthly justification for putting in two teams from a Charmin soft conference. Especially when the team in question looked mediocre all November and just lost by 22 at home in a revenge game.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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1) no one cares where you’d put OSU lol
2) double quoting my posts from last night? Come on AEW.
 
AEW Champion said:
Remind me which conference has won 12 of the past 16 national championships.

And for all the chest-beating out of Columbus, the Buckeyes have one single CFP semifinal victory since the 2014 championship over *checks notes* Blake Sims. Lording over the Big Ten hasn’t done them much good once it comes time to play the best teams in the country.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Fair. I’d still take that over the whole bunch of nothing ND has won since 1988.
 
AEW Champion said:
Deshaun Watson would’ve been Clemson’s QB back then. Probably a freshman at that point, too.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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I read your post wrong. I thought you were saying they only have one CFP Semifinal win since then, which was against Trevor Lawrence in 2020.

Even then, that Alabama team with Blake Sims had Derrick Henry and Amari Cooper on the team.
 
AEW Champion said:
Remind me which conference has won 12 of the past 16 national championships.

And for all the chest-beating out of Columbus, the Buckeyes have one single CFP semifinal victory since the 2014 championship over *checks notes* Blake Sims. Lording over the Big Ten hasn’t done them much good once it comes time to play the best teams in the country.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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And once again how many CFP games has ND won? You just bad mouth OSU because of ND's short comings; you are a very small and petty person.

its true, its true, trust me
 
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(copied from another thread)
Any one of the top 4 loses, and the Buckeyes are in. Right now, the committee has it correct. 3 undefeated teams deserve to be there. Now you have two - 1 loss teams, USC and OSU. USC just won and play in their conf. championship. OSU just lost. Pretty simple. OSU should be #5.
If any of the undefeated teams lose, their loss will be worse than the Buckeyes' loss. OSU lost to a top 2 team in the country, and regardless of the final outcome, it was close until the 4th quarter. If Georgia, TCU, and/or USC lose, it would be to a 3 loss team. That's a worse loss no matter how you shake it. A UM loss would be to a 4 loss team (Purdue). If OSU drops from 2 to 5 losing to the 2nd best team in the country, then any of the top 4 should fall AT LEAST that far with a loss to an "inferior" team. That's the most objective way to state it. No 2 loss team will jump in, unless 2 of those 4 lose and USC is one of them. Any other scenario is based on subjectivity and bias (and there's definitely plenty of that out there). If all 4 win, nothing changes, OSU is out. In no scenario, does Alabama jump OSU to get in. If the committee thought Alabama should be higher than OSU, they would have put them there last night when the rankings came out.
 
Who cares there’s only been like 3 competitive semi final games since the playoff started. College football has the best regular season in sports, but the worst post season!
 
Here is the way I see it, not a popular take perhaps, but if I'm in the commitee this might be how I think:

UGA & UM in no matter what the result is of their conference title game. The only question is who is #1 & #2. Supposing they both win their conference title games, this might be how you compare them.

UGA Best Wins: Neutral site vs Oregon, Home vs Tennessee, Neutral vs LSU (championship game)

UM Best Wins: Home vs Penn State, Away vs OSU, Neutral vs Purdue (championship game)

I think both have a case, but I would give the nod to Michigan for having the best win, along with best road win. However, I think the commitee is pretty commited to UGA being #1.

Now, let's take a look at the TCU and USC scenarios:

TCU and USC: In with conference title victory

TCU best wins: Home vs Kansas State, Away vs Texas, Home vs Kansas State (conference title game)

USC best wins: Away vs UCLA, Away vs Oregon State, Home vs Notre Dame, Neutral vs Utah (conference title game)
USC Losses: Away vs Utah

Arguments FOR & AGAINST TCU if the lose:

FOR: They beat all of their opponents in the regular season, but failed to beat KSU twice. Therefore, they shouldn't be penalized for beating the same opponent earlier in the year.

AGAINST: They failed to win their Conference Title game, therefore they are undeserving.

Arguments FOR & AGAINST USC if they lose:

FOR: It's hard to beat the same opponent twice in the same season, and they should not be penalized twice for losing to the same team.

AGAINST: Lost their Conference Title game, could not redeem their loss against the same team.

Determining #3 & #4: Toss Up, lean #3 USC, #4 TCU

Ohio State and Alabama situation:

Ohio State Best Wins: Home vs Notre Dame, At Penn State
Ohio State Worst Loss: Home vs UM

Arguments For Ohio State if either TCU or USC lose:

FOR: Still managed to navigate their season with 1 loss in a Power 5 conference. Michigan is a "good loss" because they were ranked in the top 5.

AGAINST: No conference title, performed poorly against a Top 5 school at home.

Arguments FOR & AGAINST Alabama:

Alabama Best Wins: At Texas, Home vs Mississippi State
Alabama Worst Losses: at Tennessee, at LSU

FOR: Played close, on the road with two very good opponents, one of which will be playing for a Conference Title.

AGAINST: 2 Loss team, shouldn't even be considered, no good wins, both losses were conference losses.

If I had to pick my Top 4 for each scenario it would be this:

All Teams WIN Conference Title Games:

#1- UGA
#2- UM
#3- USC
#4- TCU

UGA Loss:

#1- UM
#2- UGA
#3- USC
#4- TCU

UM Loss:

#1- UGA
#2- UM
#3- USC
#4- TCU

With a TCU Loss and USC Win:

#1- UGA
#2- UM
#3- USC
#4- OSU

With a USC Loss and TCU Win:

#1- UGA
#2- UM
#3- TCU
#4- OSU

With TCU & USC Loss:

#1- UGA
#2- UM
#3- OSU
#4- TCU

Just my thoughts, take 'em or leave 'em
 
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With the announcement of the 12 team playoff, which I despise, it will REALLY be amusing to see some of you honks whine when we have 3-4 SEC teams in the final 4 most years.

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Looking at this senario, you don't think Bama will love getting another shot at Tennesse in the semis?
 
14Red said:
With the announcement of the 12 team playoff, which I despise, it will REALLY be amusing to see some of you honks whine when we have 3-4 SEC teams in the final 4 most years.

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Looking at this senario, you don't think Bama will love getting another shot at Tennesse in the semis?
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Bama wouldn't get a shot at Tennessee. They would lose to Michigan.

Also no chance most years end up with 3-4 SEC teams in the Semifinals. You might end up with a year of 3, but it will be 1 most years, sometimes 2, as it's been recently with the 4-team CFP.

But hell yeah overall. Sign me up for:
Clemson at Penn State
Kansas State at Tennessee
Utah at Alabama

Just wish they'd keep the Quarterfinals at home sites as well. I think that's the only thing they got wrong with this expansion. Fans are dedicated, but you can't expect people to travel across the country up to 3x in a month to watch their team play in a Playoff game.
 
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I hate that quarterfinal games will be at legacy bowl locations instead of on campuses of the better seed. When will college football fully divorce itself from the antiquated, do-nothing cabal of bowl game operators?

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
With the new format, gone are the conference finals and it makes zero sense to keep OSU vs TTUN the last game. Hurts the Big 10 overall to keep the game the same.
 
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