2022 CFP Projections

If you're ranking the Pac 12 teams, it should go:
Oregon - undefeated in league play
UCLA - best loss of the group at Oregon, handled Utah
USC - lost by 1 at Utah, best win by 3 at Oregon St
Utah - only one with two losses, have that ugly loss to Florida in Week 1

Now luckily this conference will get to play itself out, Oregon has a tough matchup in Washington at home tonight, but then next week it's USC-UCLA and Oregon-Utah.
I know it’s only halftime, but do you still think Oregon is #1 in the Pac 12???

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Yes. They beat UCLA, USC has a quarterback and nothing else.
What a reply. Whatever, the smart shall inherit the earth while the dum-dums get left behind.

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What a reply. Whatever, the smart shall inherit the earth while the dum-dums get left behind.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Lol says the claiming a 3 loss Notre Dame team that barely beat 3-6 Navy today is a realistic CFB playoff contender.
 
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The Ducks don’t have a hope in hell that they’re a Top 4 team. Even if they pull this game out.

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Oregon and UCLA go down.

USC has UCLA and ND and the PAC-12 Championship game yet. If they can win all three (tall task) they are in.
 
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. TCU
4. USC

The playoffs will have three unbeaten conference champs and a one loss USC.
 
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. TCU
4. USC

The playoffs will have three unbeaten conference champs and a one loss USC.
USC doesn’t have the defense to finish the season, Might beat ND but will struggle keeping up with UCLA or whoever they play in the title game. TCU and their defense might be able to get this done, still need to close out the deal which is a tough thing to do. If TCU wins out it looks to possibly be a debate between OSU/UM loser and Tenn.
 
Looks like it’s going to be up to Notre Dame to get Tennessee into the playoff.

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I know it’s only halftime, but do you still think Oregon is #1 in the Pac 12???

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
By resume, they were. I'm not entirely convinced they're still not. Bad matchup for them against Washington, but if you want in the Playoff that's one you need to win at home.

UCLA also shat the bed against Arizona last night. So now you've got 3 of the top 4 teams in the Pac 12 with 2 losses. If USC doesn't run the table, they'll be left out of the Playoffs again.
 
USC has a good shot. a 1 point loss @ Utah is not bad. Imagine this, very slim but if LSU wins out, beats Georgia in the SEC championship game they have to be in, right?
 
That isn't true. Illinois is still ranked and currently will be the other side of the B1G Championship Game, so for now it still matters. If they lose to Purdue on Saturday, then they likely won't be ranked and then it won't matter. As you said, Michigan's non-conference schedule was bad, they need ranked wins and Illinois could give them another one.

Also to your second point about "diving into these conferences" - that is literally the definition of the ACC this year. Which is why Clemson should have never been ranked 4th and why they really ought to be lower than 10 currently.

But you could say that about any of these conferences because they're all so big. The SEC has Vanderbilt, Missouri and Florida in the East, and Auburn, Miss St and A&M in the West. It just so happens this year that the B1G is unusually down outside of Ohio St and Michigan. They've consistently been the 2nd best conference over the past 5+ years. They're 3 or maybe even 4 this year.

The only conference that doesn't have the ability to say they're beating up on the lesser teams in the conference is the Big 12, but that's because they all play one another. It's also why they almost never have an undefeated Champ at the end of the year.
Big ten--- "unusually" down??? I've been around awhile and it's normally 2-3 teams tops that are good in the big ten. It's just not a very good football league but because the midwest has so many grads of big ten schools and the league gets propped up more than it should.
Sad piggies in Fayetteville this afternoon. Harold Perkins has been playing really well but what a breakout game for him for LSU. Just an absolute unstoppable force. BK clinches a divisional title in his first year with a Bama win at Ole Miss.
Kelly can flat out coach.
 
Thoughts on the Final 4 for CFP

Georgia as your Number 1

Ohio State/ Michigan winner Number 2

TCU if they win out at Number 3

USC if they win out at Number 4 or
LSU if they would beat Georgia n regular season and win out also the rematch.
 
Thoughts on the Final 4 for CFP

Georgia as your Number 1

Ohio State/ Michigan winner Number 2

TCU if they win out at Number 3

USC if they win out at Number 4 or
LSU if they would beat Georgia n regular season and win out also the rematch.
LSU doesn’t play Georgia in the regular season.

#4 will be USC or Tennessee. LSU ain’t beating Georgia for the SEC Title.

Big Ten might get rewarded for being a Charmin soft league and get two teams in if TCU, USC and LSU all lose.

If that were to happen, I’d put three SEC teams (UGA, Tennessee, Bama) in the playoff along with the Ohio State/Michigan winner.

If all that happens and the Big Ten West wins the Big Ten title, then I’d have to go with the three SEC teams and Notre Dame as the most worthy quartet.

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USC has a good shot. a 1 point loss @ Utah is not bad. Imagine this, very slim but if LSU wins out, beats Georgia in the SEC championship game they have to be in, right?
That would be a tough one because who do they knock out? Not undefeated Ohio St/Michigan, not undefeated TCU, and they also were blown out at home by Tennessee.
 
Big ten--- "unusually" down??? I've been around awhile and it's normally 2-3 teams tops that are good in the big ten. It's just not a very good football league but because the midwest has so many grads of big ten schools and the league gets propped up more than it should.
Yes unusually down compared to at least the last 5 years, if not 10. They're usually better than they're showing this year. The B1G West is an absolute dumpster fire. Most years you at least have 4-6 good (ranked) teams - OSU, Michigan, then either Penn St or Michigan St, sometimes both. Then in the West usually Wisconsin or Iowa are strong, again sometimes both.
 
Yes unusually down compared to at least the last 5 years, if not 10. They're usually better than they're showing this year. The B1G West is an absolute dumpster fire. Most years you at least have 4-6 good (ranked) teams - OSU, Michigan, then either Penn St or Michigan St, sometimes both. Then in the West usually Wisconsin or Iowa are strong, again sometimes both.
I really have stopped paying attention to teams ranked above #10. It's really just a flip flop from week to week where teams go from #12 to #20, then back again. It's really been Ohio State predominately. Michigan State was in a few times, Wisconsin a few times. Michigan last year. Penn State can't get by Michican, Michigan State and Ohio State in the same season. Big ten fans act like the Big ten is on par with the SEC but it's not even close. And the really rich one is when Buckeye fans rip Clemson for playing in a weak conference! I'd say the Big ten may be just a hair better than the ACC.
 
LSU doesn’t play Georgia in the regular season.

#4 will be USC or Tennessee. LSU ain’t beating Georgia for the SEC Title.

Big Ten might get rewarded for being a Charmin soft league and get two teams in if TCU, USC and LSU all lose.

If that were to happen, I’d put three SEC teams (UGA, Tennessee, Bama) in the playoff along with the Ohio State/Michigan winner.

If all that happens and the Big Ten West wins the Big Ten title, then I’d have to go with the three SEC teams and Notre Dame as the most worthy quartet.

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I tend to agree with this - USC if they run the table or Tennessee. I don't think LSU can beat Georgia in Atlanta.

I think the Committee would give Ohio State more of a look than Michigan should the Buckeyes lose at home in a close one. If Michigan loses they're relegated to the Rose Bowl, which isn't a bad consolation all things considered.

After this weekend, there are 7 teams for 4 spots.
-Georgia is in, provided their only loss is in the SEC Title Game
-Ohio St-Michigan Winner is in, loser likely out
-TCU in if they win out, likely out with loss
-Tennessee likely in if they win out, only team that I think could hop them is 1-loss Pac 12 Champ USC
-USC should be in if they win out IMO, but they will get smacked by Georgia or Ohio State if they do get in
-LSU can only get in by winning out and then with TCU losing, USC losing and Ohio State/Michigan blowing the doors off the other

Anyone else doesn't really have a path unless there is mass chaos.

Ironically enough, I'd be interested to see where Notre Dame lands if they run the table. Could they sneak back into a NY6 bowl? They'd own the head-to-head win over Clemson and North Carolina, so likely would hop the ACC loser, but likely not the winner. May take a perfect storm for that to happen but it's possible.
 
Ironically enough, I'd be interested to see where Notre Dame lands if they run the table. Could they sneak back into a NY6 bowl? They'd own the head-to-head win over Clemson and North Carolina, so likely would hop the ACC loser, but likely not the winner. May take a perfect storm for that to happen but it's possible.
If Notre Dame finishes 9-3, they’ll for sure be in a NY6 bowl at least. The field would look like:

Georgia (SEC champ)
Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Tennessee
Alabama

Michigan
TCU (Big 12 champ)
Clemson (ACC champ)
USC (Pac 12 champ)
Notre Dame
UCF (Group of 5 champ)
This week’s Utah/Oregon winner
Penn State (undeserved spot, should be LSU)

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Sad piggies in Fayetteville this afternoon. Harold Perkins has been playing really well but what a breakout game for him for LSU. Just an absolute unstoppable force. BK clinches a divisional title in his first year with a Bama win at Ole Miss.
Harold Perkins is a freak. Can you imagine him wasting away with the Aggies right now? Great flip for BK and the Tigers for sure.
 
I tend to agree with this - USC if they run the table or Tennessee. I don't think LSU can beat Georgia in Atlanta.

I think the Committee would give Ohio State more of a look than Michigan should the Buckeyes lose at home in a close one. If Michigan loses they're relegated to the Rose Bowl, which isn't a bad consolation all things considered.

After this weekend, there are 7 teams for 4 spots.
-Georgia is in, provided their only loss is in the SEC Title Game
-Ohio St-Michigan Winner is in, loser likely out
-TCU in if they win out, likely out with loss
-Tennessee likely in if they win out, only team that I think could hop them is 1-loss Pac 12 Champ USC
-USC should be in if they win out IMO, but they will get smacked by Georgia or Ohio State if they do get in
-LSU can only get in by winning out and then with TCU losing, USC losing and Ohio State/Michigan blowing the doors off the other

Anyone else doesn't really have a path unless there is mass chaos.

Ironically enough, I'd be interested to see where Notre Dame lands if they run the table. Could they sneak back into a NY6 bowl? They'd own the head-to-head win over Clemson and North Carolina, so likely would hop the ACC loser, but likely not the winner. May take a perfect storm for that to happen but it's possible.
Notre Dame lost to Marshall at home, they are not ever going to get in.

Otherwise, this is a good summary. Ohio State Michigan loser is out, period. Especially Michigan because their strength of schedule is so bad.
 
If Notre Dame finishes 9-3, they’ll for sure be in a NY6 bowl at least. The field would look like:

Georgia (SEC champ)
Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Tennessee
Alabama

Michigan
TCU (Big 12 champ)
Clemson (ACC champ)
USC (Pac 12 champ)
Notre Dame
UCF (Group of 5 champ)
This week’s Utah/Oregon winner
Penn State (undeserved spot, should be LSU)

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1-loss Michigan should be in over 2-loss Bama. As should 1-loss TCU.

LSU should get high enough in the Rankings to keep their spot in the NY6 over either ND or Penn St.

I'd say:
Georgia vs. Michigan - Peach
Ohio State vs. Tennessee - Fiesta

Penn St vs. USC - Rose
TCU vs. Alabama/LSU - Sugar
G5 vs. Utag/Oregon/Notre Dame - Cotton
Clemson vs. Alabama/LSU/Notre Dame
 
But they are the SEC champ.
To date, I don't know that the committee has really put alot of stock in the conf championship game winner. This would certainly test that.

I think first and foremost, any undefeated conference champion is nearly an automatic bid. Any loss, ANY loss can knock you out. If that senario happened, Georgia would have 1 loss, neutral site. vs. SEC champ so they'd be a likely lock as well.
 
Why is Notre Dame down at #18???

No one has the pair of top wins that ND has (#9 Clemson, #13 UNC) except for Georgia and LSU. And no else in the country had the guts to play at Navy on Veterans Day weekend.

It remains a complete joke that Penn State remains highly ranked (#11) despite zero wins of relevance. Penn State is NOT good.

Lastly, having three American teams in the Top 25 while stronger teams like Texas, Pitt, Syracuse, Arkansas, etc. are omitted is ridiculous.

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