2022 CFP Projections

[AEW Champion]

We’ve seen six weekends of games (seven for bumbling teams like Nebraska and Northwestern), so it’s not too early to start mapping out the College Football Playoff. These are projections of where I think things will end up at season’s end:

1. Ohio State — It’s harvest season in Big Ten Country, and this year, in addition to all the corn, pumpkins and whatnot, there’s been an abundant crop of juicy tomatoes that have been canned for any decent football team’s consumption. Big Ten tomato cans include: Rutgers, Michigan State, Indiana, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota. With little competition in conference — just at Penn State and vs Michigan before a horrible Big Ten West team in Indianapolis — it’s hard to see any solid team losing any remaining game on Ohio State’s schedule.

2. Alabama — They’re in the early stages of a brutal stretch. They’ve already valiantly vanquished Arkansas and Texas A&M without the services of Bryce Young. Now they go to Tennessee in the showdown of the SEC season. Then they get Miss State before a bye and at LSU and at Ole Miss. If anyone can stand up to this schedule, it’s Alabama. Even if they lose one, they can still be #2 by beating UGA (or Tennessee) in the SEC Title game.

3. Georgia — If they get through Florida and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks surrounding Halloween, they’ll be here even if losing the SEC Title game to Alabama.

4. Notre Dame — Had Notre Dame simply gone with Drew Pyne instead of Tyler Buchner to start the season, the Irish would likely be 5-0 and ranked #3 in the country right now. As it is, they belong in the top 20 after beating UNC soundly on the road (UNC is 5-1, by the way) and going out west to topple BYU in Vegas. The path is straightforward for the Irish: Win at #22 Syracuse at the end of October, take down unbeaten Clemson in South Bend on Nov. 5, and then win a massive end-of-season primetime national TV showdown at unbeaten USC to end the season. When all of that happens, who else besides Alabama is going to have a resume that can even touch the 5 big wins the Irish will have? I liken this team to 2002 USC when Carson Palmer won the Heisman trophy: Took a couple losses early, then put it all together and were clearly the best, most dangerous team at the end of the season. Unfortunately, that USC team was unjustly omitted from the BCS title game in favor of some Columbus clogged-toilet offense nonsense. But we as fans and I dare say as a society in general have grown smarter in the past 20 years, so hopefully we will be smart enough to not hold two early losses against an ascendant team this time around.

Others considered: Tennessee, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Michigan, Clemson, USC, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Texas

Not considered serious contenders: Penn State, TCU

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[Termite2]

#4 ND

Delusional ND fans who excuse their losses by rationalizing they were actually victories if it weren't for the inconvenient actual score.

 

[AEW Champion]

#4 ND

Delusional ND fans who excuse their losses by rationalizing they were actually victories if it weren't for the inconvenient actual score.

Aside from the Marshall loss, who else is going to be able to match this resume:

Big wins:
at North Carolina
vs BYU (Las Vegas - Mormon country)
at Syracuse
Clemson
at USC

Loss:
at Ohio State (21-10) - ND controlled game until late 3rd quarter

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[Orin Swift]

Aside from the Marshall loss, who else is going to be able to match this resume:

Big wins:
at North Carolina
vs BYU (Las Vegas - Mormon country)
at Syracuse
Clemson
at USC

Loss:
at Ohio State (21-10) - ND controlled game until late 3rd quarter

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Doesn’t matter, they lost to Marshall. Also including Syracuse as a big win lol

 

[AEW Champion]

Doesn’t matter, they lost to Marshall. Also including Syracuse as a big win lol

Syracuse is in the Top 25 and deserves their ranking. They’d probably win the Big Ten West.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[Orin Swift]

Syracuse is in the Top 25 and deserves their ranking. They’d probably win the Big Ten West.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

They’ll be unranked in 2 weeks and definitely won’t be ranked by the time ND plays them. They’ll also finish the year with at least 4 losses (unless ND sh*ts the bed), in what world is a victory over an 8-4 team a big win?

That’s like bragging about being the most athletic guy in a room full of geriatrics in wheelchairs.

 

[AEW Champion]

They’ll be unranked in 2 weeks and definitely won’t be ranked by the time ND plays them. They’ll also finish the year with at least 4 losses (unless ND sh*ts the bed), in what world is a victory over an 8-4 team a big win?

That’s like bragging about being the most athletic guy in a room full of geriatrics in wheelchairs.

Very few teams finish with 10+ wins. No team is playing a gauntlet of 10-win teams … Notre Dame is the only one who comes close to that type of schedule.

There’s plenty of years where Big Ten teams beat their chest about winning at Iowa or beating Wisconsin or beating Penn State or Michigan State and those teams routinely are in the 8 or 9 win range.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

P.S. Why you hating on senior citizens?

 

[Termite2]

Aside from the Marshall loss, who else is going to be able to match this resume:

Big wins:
at North Carolina
vs BYU (Las Vegas - Mormon country)
at Syracuse
Clemson
at USC

Loss:
at Ohio State (21-10) - ND controlled game until late 3rd quarter

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Lost to Marshall; credit for "controlled game until late 3rd quarter" against Ohio St ND never led by more than 3 pts in any point in the game
ND 253yds of offense
Ohio St 395

2nd half ND scored 0 pts.

If you get credit for" controlling" the game against Ohio St until late in the 3rd qtr; does that mean ND gets slammed for Cal "controlling" the game against ND for 3 qtrs?

 

[nwwarrior09]

That Marshall loss is atrocious. Marshall has lost to Troy and Bowling Green, which have a combined 6-6 record at this point. BG is a bottom half MAC team and arguably one of the 2-3 worst teams in that league.

Notre Dame will lose to at least one and I'd probably bet both of Clemson and USC, so it doesn't matter.

 

[Orin Swift]

Very few teams finish with 10+ wins. No team is playing a gauntlet of 10-win teams … Notre Dame is the only one who comes close to that type of schedule.

There’s plenty of years where Big Ten teams beat their chest about winning at Iowa or beating Wisconsin or beating Penn State or Michigan State and those teams routinely are in the 8 or 9 win range.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

P.S. Why you hating on senior citizens?

Correct, that’s why big wins are reserved for wins against teams that win at least 10 games, not a slightly above average ACC team. That’s called taking care of business.

I don’t care what other Big Ten teams say or do, this ain’t Kentucky riding the coattails of Bama, FL and LSU.

No hate for senior citizens, they just aren’t athletic in their old age. Just comparing how pointless it is to brag about maybe winning the Big Ten West in 2022.

 

[Omar]

We’ve seen six weekends of games (seven for bumbling teams like Nebraska and Northwestern), so it’s not too early to start mapping out the College Football Playoff. These are projections of where I think things will end up at season’s end:

1. Ohio State — It’s harvest season in Big Ten Country, and this year, in addition to all the corn, pumpkins and whatnot, there’s been an abundant crop of juicy tomatoes that have been canned for any decent football team’s consumption. Big Ten tomato cans include: Rutgers, Michigan State, Indiana, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota. With little competition in conference — just at Penn State and vs Michigan before a horrible Big Ten West team in Indianapolis — it’s hard to see any solid team losing any remaining game on Ohio State’s schedule.

2. Alabama — They’re in the early stages of a brutal stretch. They’ve already valiantly vanquished Arkansas and Texas A&M without the services of Bryce Young. Now they go to Tennessee in the showdown of the SEC season. Then they get Miss State before a bye and at LSU and at Ole Miss. If anyone can stand up to this schedule, it’s Alabama. Even if they lose one, they can still be #2 by beating UGA (or Tennessee) in the SEC Title game.

3. Georgia — If they get through Florida and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks surrounding Halloween, they’ll be here even if losing the SEC Title game to Alabama.

4. Notre Dame — Had Notre Dame simply gone with Drew Pyne instead of Tyler Buchner to start the season, the Irish would likely be 5-0 and ranked #3 in the country right now. As it is, they belong in the top 20 after beating UNC soundly on the road (UNC is 5-1, by the way) and going out west to topple BYU in Vegas. The path is straightforward for the Irish: Win at #22 Syracuse at the end of October, take down unbeaten Clemson in South Bend on Nov. 5, and then win a massive end-of-season primetime national TV showdown at unbeaten USC to end the season. When all of that happens, who else besides Alabama is going to have a resume that can even touch the 5 big wins the Irish will have? I liken this team to 2002 USC when Carson Palmer won the Heisman trophy: Took a couple losses early, then put it all together and were clearly the best, most dangerous team at the end of the season. Unfortunately, that USC team was unjustly omitted from the BCS title game in favor of some Columbus clogged-toilet offense nonsense. But we as fans and I dare say as a society in general have grown smarter in the past 20 years, so hopefully we will be smart enough to not hold two early losses against an ascendant team this time around.

Others considered: Tennessee, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Michigan, Clemson, USC, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Texas

Not considered serious contenders: Penn State, TCU

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Why do you do this? It makes ND look bad.

 

[Omar]

It’s not hard to list the top 4:

OSU- best team by a decent amount
Bama
UGA
Clemson

This is why expanding the playoff is stupid

 

[AEW Champion]

It’s not hard to list the top 4:

OSU- best team by a decent amount
Bama
UGA
Clemson

This is why expanding the playoff is stupid

Expanding the playoff pool is the primary way to encourage elite talent to consider other options besides always congregating at the same few schools. No one wants to see the same 5 or 6 teams in the Playoff Four every single year.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[nwwarrior09]

There are roughly a dozen teams that I'd consider to be "in the hunt" at this point. Alabama, UGA, Clemson and Ohio State are way out in front of the others.

Next weekend has a massive implication game with Alabama going to Tennessee. The Vols can either make a statement that vaults them into legitimate playoff contention, or, rather, I suspect Alabama hammers them as we start to gradually eliminate teams outside of that top-4.

 

[adselder09]

It’s not hard to list the top 4:

OSU- best team by a decent amount
Bama
UGA
Clemson

This is why expanding the playoff is stupid

So you'd prefer seeing these same 4-5-6 teams duke it out every year? Why even play the regular season then? Just toss Bama, Georgia, Ohio State and/or Clemson, and/or Oklahoma every year. The fact this Playoff is less than 10 years old and we've seen Bama-Clemson and Bama-Georgia a total of five times is a major problem.

 

[adselder09]

Aside from the Marshall loss, who else is going to be able to match this resume:

Big wins:
at North Carolina
vs BYU (Las Vegas - Mormon country)
at Syracuse
Clemson
at USC

Loss:
at Ohio State (21-10) - ND controlled game until late 3rd quarter

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Unless North Carolina or Syracuse make the ACC Title game, these are not "big wins."

BYU looked like it could have been a big win, but wasn't that their 3rd loss already?

Clemson and USC would qualify as big wins, but I think ND loses at least one more, probably end up losing both.

I will give them credit for going to Ohio State, but that game only matters if Notre Dame finishes 11-1 and thanks to the Thundering Herd that won't happen.

 

[Omar]

So you'd prefer seeing these same 4-5-6 teams duke it out every year? Why even play the regular season then? Just toss Bama, Georgia, Ohio State and/or Clemson, and/or Oklahoma every year. The fact this Playoff is less than 10 years old and we've seen Bama-Clemson and Bama-Georgia a total of five times is a major problem.

I’m saying it won’t matter, the end result is going to be the same

 

[cjb5656]

There was a chance to spread the talent out the same way they did when a handful of teams dominated the top 10 in the 1960s and 1970s. They cut the scholarship limit from well over 100 to 85. Then you started to see a lot of schools become competitive. Cutting the limit to 75 could have done something similar, but forget it now with the NIL money. You can literally buy a team now. A booster can now pick up the cost for a player and free up a scholarship for someone else. BYU has a booster that is paying the tuition, fees, room and board for all the walk ons. That basically gives them 100+ scholarships to offer. So a kid that might get offers from Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado, or wherever can turn it down to walk on at BYU knowing school is paid for. If they can do it, so can the big boys with the big money.

 

[Auggie]

There was a chance to spread the talent out the same way they did when a handful of teams dominated the top 10 in the 1960s and 1970s. They cut the scholarship limit from well over 100 to 85. Then you started to see a lot of schools become competitive. Cutting the limit to 75 could have done something similar, but forget it now with the NIL money. You can literally buy a team now. A booster can now pick up the cost for a player and free up a scholarship for someone else. BYU has a booster that is paying the tuition, fees, room and board for all the walk ons. That basically gives them 100+ scholarships to offer. So a kid that might get offers from Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado, or wherever can turn it down to walk on at BYU knowing school is paid for. If they can do it, so can the big boys with the big money.

I was thinking the same thing, I can also see a lot of package deals start to get supplemented by NIL $s. That 5 * QB wants his pal that is a 3 * WR on the team, no need to take up a scholarship as the 5* can pay his own way with his NIL $s and allow the lower ranked kid to get the free ride.

Also free agency starts year 1 now, what other sport has that rule? No agent involved either so you get to keep all the $s but on the flip side there is nobody there to represent your interest except for an over matched family member or amature advisor.

 

[cjb5656]

I was thinking the same thing, I can also see a lot of package deals start to get supplemented by NIL $s. That 5 * QB wants his pal that is a 3 * WR on the team, no need to take up a scholarship as the 5* can pay his own way with his NIL $s and allow the lower ranked kid to get the free ride.

Also free agency starts year 1 now, what other sport has that rule? No agent involved either so you get to keep all the $s but on the flip side there is nobody there to represent your interest except for an over matched family member or amature advisor.

Those things, along with consolidation of the power teams into four leagues, will ultimately kill the golden goose. The playoff ratings are already decreasing as the novelty wears off. When it’s the same teams coming from the same four leagues…with so much of the regionalism taken away…interest will wane.

 

[Orin Swift]

I was thinking the same thing, I can also see a lot of package deals start to get supplemented by NIL $s. That 5 * QB wants his pal that is a 3 * WR on the team, no need to take up a scholarship as the 5* can pay his own way with his NIL $s and allow the lower ranked kid to get the free ride.

Also free agency starts year 1 now, what other sport has that rule? No agent involved either so you get to keep all the $s but on the flip side there is nobody there to represent your interest except for an over matched family member or amature advisor.

cough cough Arch Manning Will Randle cough cough

I think you’ll see the reverse. The 5* keeps the scholarship and the 3* gets an NIL deal to cover tuition, board, etc. plus some pocket money at a Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, etc. that they wouldn’t have gotten at Houston, TCU or Vandy own their own.

I also don’t think you’ll see it that often. Maybe there’s kids out there like TC Caffey at OSU who love the school so much they’d rather go there as a walk on with NIL vs. a scholarship elsewhere, but there’s still a huge difference outside financials for scholarship vs. non scholarship players. There’s a lot of benefits non scholarship players do not receive.

 

[Hammerdrill]

Those things, along with consolidation of the power teams into four leagues, will ultimately kill the golden goose. The playoff ratings are already decreasing as the novelty wears off. When it’s the same teams coming from the same four leagues…with so much of the regionalism taken away…interest will wane.

My guess wrt the playoff ratings is the fatigue of seeing the same teams every year. Expanding the playoffs will remedy that. Not that I care if the golden goose is killed.

 

[nutsnbolts]

So you'd prefer seeing these same 4-5-6 teams duke it out every year? Why even play the regular season then? Just toss Bama, Georgia, Ohio State and/or Clemson, and/or Oklahoma every year. The fact this Playoff is less than 10 years old and we've seen Bama-Clemson and Bama-Georgia a total of five times is a major problem.

You don’t think we’ll still see those matchups?
Those five teams you listed will still be in it. Just a matter of which four teams get the first round bye. While I like the opportunity to give more teams a chance, I don’t think I like adding two more weeks to the playoff, with the number of regular season games plus conference championships. But if the playoff starts the week or two after the conference championships the season won’t really be any longer. And they do it in other divisions, so????

 

[adselder09]

You don’t think we’ll still see those matchups?
Those five teams you listed will still be in it. Just a matter of which four teams get the first round bye. While I like the opportunity to give more teams a chance, I don’t think I like adding two more weeks to the playoff, with the number of regular season games plus conference championships. But if the playoff starts the week or two after the conference championships the season won’t really be any longer. And they do it in other divisions, so????

I agree with you, the regular season probably should be shortened to 10-games with an expanded playoff, but who is going to say yes to that?

And as I said in another post, that may be true. We may end up seeing the same four teams. But there's a chance for more teams to get in and make a move. Hell there could be 4 SEC teams in the Final Four of the CFP and B1G wonks would lose their minds, but I think more inclusion will help the parity. That and Saban retiring.

 

[AEW Champion]

Unless North Carolina or Syracuse make the ACC Title game, these are not "big wins."

BYU looked like it could have been a big win, but wasn't that their 3rd loss already?

Clemson and USC would qualify as big wins, but I think ND loses at least one more, probably end up losing both.

I will give them credit for going to Ohio State, but that game only matters if Notre Dame finishes 11-1 and thanks to the Thundering Herd that won't happen.

The first sentence is ludicrous and showing your anti-Notre Dame bias. So a team has to make a conference title game for it to be considered a big win??? Really??? You think the Buckeye boys on here won’t be beating their chest until it bleeds if they beat Penn State, calling it a big win? Because I can assure you Penn State won’t be in the Big Ten title game.

If USC wins at Utah on Saturday night, it won’t be a big win because Utah won’t be in the Pac 12 title game? If Bama beats Tennessee, it won’t be a big win because UGA will be the SEC East rep??? Insane comment.

BYU has only lost twice: at Oregon and vs Notre Dame. (Also beat the stuffing out of USF, 50-21, in case you’re looking to compare BYU with your boys.)

Lastly, there’s no rule that a two-loss team can’t make the playoff if they rack up enough big wins, which Notre Dame has a chance to do. It’s all in front of the Irish.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[AEW Champion]

You don’t think we’ll still see those matchups?
Those five teams you listed will still be in it. Just a matter of which four teams get the first round bye. While I like the opportunity to give more teams a chance, I don’t think I like adding two more weeks to the playoff, with the number of regular season games plus conference championships. But if the playoff starts the week or two after the conference championships the season won’t really be any longer. And they do it in other divisions, so????

I’m fine with more games being added. These players and coaches are all well-compensated employees at this point, so I’m not going to lose sleep if several very good teams have a couple more weeks of work.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Caution: Genius at Work

 

[adselder09]

The first sentence is ludicrous and showing your anti-Notre Dame bias. So a team has to make a conference title game for it to be considered a big win??? Really??? You think the Buckeye boys on here won’t be beating their chest until it bleeds if they beat Penn State, calling it a big win? Because I can assure you Penn State won’t be in the Big Ten title game.

No I didn't say that. You assumed I meant that across the board, but for a win over Syracuse or North Carolina who generally aren't major players in the ACC, then yes that would need to happen for a Notre Dame win over either of those two to be considered "big." Also, if you want to bring Penn St to this conversation, they've won the B1G Championship, a much better conference than the ACC, since the CFP was implemented and made it to a Rose Bowl. What has Syracuse and North Carolina done?

If USC wins at Utah on Saturday night, it won’t be a big win because Utah won’t be in the Pac 12 title game? If Bama beats Tennessee, it won’t be a big win because UGA will be the SEC East rep??? Insane comment.

Again you're putting words in my mouth. Utah won the Pac 12 last season and were a trendy pick to make the CFP this year. Tennessee appears to be better than a lot of people thought, myself included, but they don't have a ton of success in recent history so in your hypothetical, I would have taken a wait and see approach to calling that a "big win" for Bama. Unfortunately I for both USC and Bama, they lose close ones today. .

BYU has only lost twice: at Oregon and vs Notre Dame. (Also beat the stuffing out of USF, 50-21, in case you’re looking to compare BYU with your boys.)

BYU just took another L today, against Arkansas no less, by 17 at home in Provo. The same Arkansas team, that "my boys" only lost to by one TD in Razorback Stadium.

 

[adselder09]

Lastly, there’s no rule that a two-loss team can’t make the playoff if they rack up enough big wins, which Notre Dame has a chance to do. It’s all in front of the Irish.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

You're also right that there isn't a rule against having a 2-loss team make the Playoff, but in the short history of the CFP, how many 2-loss teams have made the 4-team bracket?

 

[Crusaders]

An expanded playoff this year would be great for sure

 

[AEW Champion]

An expanded playoff this year would be great for sure

Maybe to 8 teams, not 12. The only teams I can come up with are:

Tennessee
Georgia
Alabama
Clemson
UCLA
USC
Michigan
Ohio State

(I do not believe TCU to be in the category of these other teams, and hopefully either Texas or one of the jilted New Big XII also-rans can take them out.)

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …