RollingTrain
Well-known member
I look at Division IV in NW Ohio and then took a look at Central Ohio. Good lord. It’s not even fair.
Toledo Area Basketball 20-21
- Thread starter Northpole
- Start date
The Dock
Persona Non Grata
The Division IV landscape in NW Ohio is drastically different from what Division IV is for the Central District, for several reasons. D4 NWO is also really different from D4 Southeast, D4 East, D4 Northeast.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Competitive balance decimated DIV in the central district while making their DIII an 800 pound gorilla.
The Dock
Persona Non Grata
It's that, but also the fact the geography and population of Central Ohio doesn't beget there being many public schools being in the D4 classification for the Central. There's only 19-20 or so D4 schools in Central Ohio; there's 68 for the NW District. And of the 20 or so D4 schools in Central Ohio, half of them are basically minnows athletically in a big pond of school options. Compare that against the Northwest, where there are entire counties of only public school options and those options are strong athletic + academic traditions.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
It's true that geography/population distribution doesn't make for very many small public options in Central Ohio...it also allows for the possibility of some extremely competitive private and selective enrollment public schools.
I imagine the people laughing at seeing Patriot Prep Academy seeded #2 on their district bracket would not be laughing in a non-competitive balance landscape if their small-town world beaters won their district and had to face an Africentric, Harvest Prep or Wellington in a regional semifinal. CB has overloaded central district D3. I think the polls are largely a joke, but it's quite a statement when Fredericktown is ranked 7th in the state and was only seeded 6th (of 22 or 23) in their district. The D3 central district open draw (two champs) is, in my opinion, far and away the most competitive sectional/district draw in the bottom two divisions.
Edit: as a side note and a good reason as to why CB exists, before COVID stopped the tournament last year Jackson Center and their whopping enrollment of 61 boys would have been squaring off with Wellington and their enrollment that's inflated by 30% due to CB in a regional final. In case it wasn't clear, IMO these schools absolutely should be moved up, although it mostly seems to just be moving the problem into the backyard of slightly larger schools.
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The Dock
Persona Non Grata
Correct!
Ironically, Patriot Prep has the potential to be a selective inner-city program to threaten the D4 scene statewide in short time.
The two Catholic schools in Central D4 are so far "up the creek" in enrollment that they're not going to have the base of players capable to be good enough to where additions could contribute to the team being anything more than a 'one-year wonder' or a district finalist. They're also in the backyard of the OCC and copious strong mid-size programs (Bloom-Carroll, Fairfield Union; Granville, Heath) with insane tuition charges. It's also not helping that the suburbs and areas just past are, how do I say, probably not filled with many people interested in paying 7.5-8K a year.
I would give a kidney to see my D4 Catholic reach the Final Four, but I know it'd be a dumb proposal when I just saw them blow a 26-4 lead earlier this week.
The only Christian school that has the chance to reach the heights of "extremely competitive" would be Tree of Life, and I don't think they're going to be back to the late 2000's era they were. It partly depends on EdChoice, I think, and also being a contemporary to private school choices like Worthington Christian and DeSales.
The KMAC publics are fine schools with good communities, but basketball has never been big traditions with many of them.
// Side note: 'twas a sight to see Harvest Prep jump into the same bracket as Worthington Christian!
edits above^^^
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nwwarrior09
Well-known member
As usual and as expected, the central district juggernauts have no respect for the Southeast district and regional and view getting over 1-2 big time district foes as equaling another trip to state.
RollingTrain
Well-known member
I am aware, I’ve lived a long time in both. But it doesn’t take away from the fact that Central OH gets a regional spot too....and the path to get there is drastically different.
RollingTrain
Well-known member
well, same thing happened in Div. II for the second year in a row
ayCC!
NWO Realignment Enjoyer
I agree with your DI analysis, really aren’t on the same level as everyone else. BCSN or the Blade not covering Lima area stuff is some horse$hit tbh. That being said NV vs LS would be a good game to watch.D1 will be competitive but the teams are not good compared to the rest of the state.
I don't think BCSN included the Lima area in their top 30 teams.
No way Clay beats Northview. They have the ability to snatch defeat from the hands of victory like no other program in the area.
I think it comes down to the Rossford/TCC game.
TCC vs. Rossford will definitely be impactful on how that district plays out.
The Dock
Persona Non Grata
NW gets 4 regional spots, right? Whereas the Central typically only gets 1 (although this year and last year it’s 2.)
green_genes
Well-known member
Rossford over Wauseon last night: 58-43. The Indians are very solid defensively and forced the game to be played at their tempo. They do not have a lot of size, though, and Rossford was able to beat them up a little on the offensive boards.
nwosportsfan
Active member
How does this Rossford team compare to the 18-19 Genoa team?
I think Rossford is a little deeper, but Plantz and Bench would be the two best players on the floor if the two teams played. Genoa defended better, Rossford is better on offense. Genoa would be 7-8 points better in my eyes.
irish_buffalo
Well-known member
This Rossford team being the shining beacon of Toledo area basketball shows just how down the area is. It is the worst I've ever seen. The Bulldogs are good and talented but much of that has to do with the rest of the area as well.
nwosportsfan
Active member
Happens when 2 high level Division 1 prospects move out west. One being top 50 in his class. Can’t blame em either.
Living in Rossford and knowing all these kids, it's a great group of talented basketball first kids, only a small few play other sports, but hoops is a 12 month sport in Rossford. Not sure how deep of a run they can make, but it's a team of highly skilled kids. IB has been saying this and I've been agreeing, there's a huge talent drop in high school basketball right now, the freshman class at SJJ might be as bad of a class as I've seen SJJ have. With Stritch and for a short time MVCD pulling kids away from the traditional hoop powers in town, the talent is more spread out than ever before. Is Craig the best player in the area? If he is, what's his college ceiling? Could he play at UT or BG and play facing the basket at 6'6"? Or is he a Findlay talent? What has happened at SFS, picked to with the TRAC, with just about everyone back from last year and most of them playing since sophmore year. I know SFS is more than likely getting the young Easter kid, but I can't see him staying in town for 4 years. I think Lima is the best D1 school, most likely Rossford in D2 and Stritch should get to regionals in D3.
I think Easter is already in Arizona with Neal and Coleman.
Craig looks more like a D2 guy to me and that is no slight. Top D2 programs are better than 50% of the small D1 schools from no name conferences.
For me the issue is more about a lack of depth than anything. Lately 2-3 D1 guys in the Toledo area leagues (TRAC, NLL, TAAC, NBA, NWOAL) is the norm, but you could count on several D2/NAIA scholarship level guys and a D1 walk on here and there. That depth is missing.
And even though some of the small schools are pulling guys at one point the TCL included Libby, Macomber and Devilbiss so that is more than a wash to me.
Current Sr class has;
D1
Hornbeak Kent State
D2
McWinnie Hillsdale
Wensink Malone
Wilson Wayne State
NAIA
Thompson Indiana University South Bend
Am I missing any seniors with scholarship offers, Adams from Findlay maybe???
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nwosportsfan
Active member
Not having a normal AAU season probably doesn’t help the senior class. That and the recruiting dead period.
irish_buffalo
Well-known member
That is incredible. ONE kid from the Toledo area with a DI offer in hand? All of the D2 guys are TAAC kids. Unreal.
I agree, Craig is a D2 kid and that is no slight. As cchs said he is not a face the basket every play guy and at 6'6" he is not a post guy either. Not DI anyhow. He is a good player but he'd a been an above average guy just 10 years ago.
It is not just basketball either, every sport in the Toledo area is WAY down. Brian drain in full effect.
CC Track Fan
Well-known member
Very true not many state titles in any sport/division north of Findlay and West of Sandusky,
I’ll only talk about the NLL over the last 15 or so years because it’s what I’ve watched the most and before that seems irrelevant to the programs current situations.
What happened to Springfield since Reiser and then Joplin? They used to be a school who consistently had some of the best prospects. (Leroy, McFadden, Wiggins) Perrysburg hasn’t ever had elite talent even in their best years imo, Sizemore was solid the last few years but I can’t think of a D1 guy under Boyce. AW had Donnal but outside of him their best basketball players have typically been better at something else, similar to PB. BG has had a couple top level players (Brown, Orr) but since 2013 haven’t been the same. Napoleon is ok but other than the Lauf brothers they haven’t had any D1 or 2 guys in the NLL. SV has Jump who is probably a D2 guy next year similar level as Casanova but their talent isn’t near what it was back when Gant played let alone Joplin and Hausfeld. NV has Craig right now and the West brothers were both solid, can’t think of much before them. I don’t think Maumee has had a D2 or better guy play since around 2013 though Ben Pacer and Walker were both close.
At the end of the day i think about half the starters in the NLL just don’t focus on basketball anymore. From what I’ve seen this year I think Craig is the only player in the NLL with the size and athleticism to even consider playing D1. Maybe once these kids realized they wouldnt ever be physically gifted enough to play D1 (or D2 in some cases) they decided to show up in the winter to play ball and spend the other 8 months focused on baseball, football or soccer where they might be able to play at the next level.
What happened to Springfield since Reiser and then Joplin? They used to be a school who consistently had some of the best prospects. (Leroy, McFadden, Wiggins) Perrysburg hasn’t ever had elite talent even in their best years imo, Sizemore was solid the last few years but I can’t think of a D1 guy under Boyce. AW had Donnal but outside of him their best basketball players have typically been better at something else, similar to PB. BG has had a couple top level players (Brown, Orr) but since 2013 haven’t been the same. Napoleon is ok but other than the Lauf brothers they haven’t had any D1 or 2 guys in the NLL. SV has Jump who is probably a D2 guy next year similar level as Casanova but their talent isn’t near what it was back when Gant played let alone Joplin and Hausfeld. NV has Craig right now and the West brothers were both solid, can’t think of much before them. I don’t think Maumee has had a D2 or better guy play since around 2013 though Ben Pacer and Walker were both close.
At the end of the day i think about half the starters in the NLL just don’t focus on basketball anymore. From what I’ve seen this year I think Craig is the only player in the NLL with the size and athleticism to even consider playing D1. Maybe once these kids realized they wouldnt ever be physically gifted enough to play D1 (or D2 in some cases) they decided to show up in the winter to play ball and spend the other 8 months focused on baseball, football or soccer where they might be able to play at the next level.
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I like the point of the post overall, but we disagree with the level of talent it takes to play D2 (sorry nit picking a few comments). Meaning I believe the bar to be much higher than some of the names mentioned.
To play D2 you have to be in the top 2% of basketball players if not nationally then at least regionally. Maybe you could expand that to 2.5% to account for guys playing other sports in college, guys who don't make the grade, some NAIA scholarship guys and the D1 or bust guys who choose not to play in college.
Estimated probability of competing in college athletics
Estimated probability of competing in college athletics
www.ncaa.org
I am more familiar with the 2019 class - here are how some "Toledo Area" guys are doing. No high level D1 guys, but a lot of depth with guys contributing early at the D2/NAIA level;
D1
Harris (St. Francis/Oakland/Wayne St.) - Played in 26 games for Oakland as a fresh transferred to Wayne State
Elsasser (Bowling Green/BGSU) - Plays late in several games
Syroka (Whitmer/Niagra) - Limited Time
D2
Plantz (Genoa/Lake Erie) - 9 PPG as a Fresh, 13 PPG as a soph
West (Northview/Ohio Dominican) - 5.8 PPG as a Fresh, 11 PPG as a Soph
Horn (Southview/Urbana/USC Aiken) - 12 PPG as a Fresh, 7 PPG as a soph
Hughes (Whitmer/Lake Erie)- Redshirt as a Fresh, 6 PPG as a soph
Burton (Stritch/Notre Dame College) - 10 PPG as a Fresh, 14 PPG as a soph
Caryer (Stritch/Tiffin University) - Redshirt as a Fresh, Limited Time as a soph
Colbert (Whitmer/University of Charleston) - 8 PPG as a Fresh, 12 PPG as a soph
Seiler (Wauseon/Malone) - 1.3 PPG as Fresh, 7 PPG - started all 15 games as a soph
NAIA
Anderson (Stritch/Lourdes) - 9 PPG as Fresh, 10 PPG as Soph
Nunn (Findlay/Madonna) - 3 PPG as a Fresh, 9 PPG as a Soph
Wells (St. Francis/Shawnee St.) - Can't find Fresh stats, started 22 of 24 games for 22-2 team, 3 PPG
Brooks (St. Johns/Stritch/Bowsher/Siena Heights) - Getting limited time
JUCO
Evans (Whitmer/Mid Michigan) - 9 PPG as a Soph
D1
Harris (St. Francis/Oakland/Wayne St.) - Played in 26 games for Oakland as a fresh transferred to Wayne State
Elsasser (Bowling Green/BGSU) - Plays late in several games
Syroka (Whitmer/Niagra) - Limited Time
D2
Plantz (Genoa/Lake Erie) - 9 PPG as a Fresh, 13 PPG as a soph
West (Northview/Ohio Dominican) - 5.8 PPG as a Fresh, 11 PPG as a Soph
Horn (Southview/Urbana/USC Aiken) - 12 PPG as a Fresh, 7 PPG as a soph
Hughes (Whitmer/Lake Erie)- Redshirt as a Fresh, 6 PPG as a soph
Burton (Stritch/Notre Dame College) - 10 PPG as a Fresh, 14 PPG as a soph
Caryer (Stritch/Tiffin University) - Redshirt as a Fresh, Limited Time as a soph
Colbert (Whitmer/University of Charleston) - 8 PPG as a Fresh, 12 PPG as a soph
Seiler (Wauseon/Malone) - 1.3 PPG as Fresh, 7 PPG - started all 15 games as a soph
NAIA
Anderson (Stritch/Lourdes) - 9 PPG as Fresh, 10 PPG as Soph
Nunn (Findlay/Madonna) - 3 PPG as a Fresh, 9 PPG as a Soph
Wells (St. Francis/Shawnee St.) - Can't find Fresh stats, started 22 of 24 games for 22-2 team, 3 PPG
Brooks (St. Johns/Stritch/Bowsher/Siena Heights) - Getting limited time
JUCO
Evans (Whitmer/Mid Michigan) - 9 PPG as a Soph
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Insane92
Location: South Jersey
What about D3 guys?
ayCC!
NWO Realignment Enjoyer
What about Williams from SJJ at VCU? Or the Bowsher kid at Toledo?
They were not in the 2019 class. I didn't have enough time to dig into every year.
Delonte Brown is at Miami
The other Williams from St. Johns is a walk on at Toledo
St. Francis has a walk on at Dayton
and there was a St. Johns baller turned rapper that was playing at Northern Kentucky
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Right there are several, but didn't have the time to look them all up.
ayCC!
NWO Realignment Enjoyer
My bad, didn't read it close enough. Really appreciate the detail of your findings though, interesting read.