We did it.

[CoventryTrackXCguy]

Great season everybody. While I am personally disappointed in how the season transpired for my own team- we had allowed our talent to grow thin, and we were unable to utilize the offseason last spring to draw more athletes onto our team. But still I remain grateful that we even had a season, and that our kids even had the opportunity to compete. We would be in far worse shape, if we had not been given that much.

I am not getting my hopes up for Indoor Track Season. But I do pray that we will be granted an outdoor track season. I think Coventry was robbed of what could have been by far the most successful season in school history. We brought back a state qualifying hurdler, and a state qualifying long jumper from 2019, both of whom were capable of taking first in 2020. Coventry could have gotten to 20 points, which likely puts us in top 5 in the state. But alas, it was stolen from us. And now we must spend this spring rebuilding-a tall task, and it would be much taller should the 2021 season also be taken from us. Not that I doubt we can rebuild. Daniel Savage has coached at Coventry since 2012. He has taken Coventry from the basement to near the top over a span of 8 seasons. If he did it once, he can do it again.

 

[CoventryTrackXCguy]

As psychodad pointed out, with infections and hospitalizations headed in the direction they are headed, I am more worried about losing another outdoor season than in trying to get in an indoor season. If you look at the actual square footage of indoor track facilities, even the largest ones will struggle to allow even 300-400 total athletes to compete. Just not seeing any way very many places will open up. Way too much risk for too little reward.

I think that come March/April, the vaccine will start to come into play. Moderna and Pfizer are both days away from getting FDA approval...both have over 90% efficacy. By February/March, we should have started ratcheting up production of the vaccines.

 

[madman]

I think that come March/April, the vaccine will start to come into play. Moderna and Pfizer are both days away from getting FDA approval...both have over 90% efficacy. By February/March, we should have started ratcheting up production of the vaccines.

I've heard that some companies were mass producing these vaccinces before they had been approved so that once approved the distribution would be accelerated. I am hopeful that is the case with Moderna and Pfizer and any other yet to be name effective vaccines.

Even so the logistics in getting them distributed to 6 Billion people scattered over the globe will be a huge challenge. If it takes two doses separated by 3-4 weeks, I highly doubt we're going to see any impact on COVID numbers in time for spring sports. More likely, any changes we see by spring time are going to be due to changes in our behavior - mandated, voluntary, or driven by weather - or just the natural progression of the virus.

I don't think of myself as much of a consiracy theorist, but you won't find me at the head of the line for receiving the vaccine. I think there is a huge chunk of the population who are going to take a wait-and-see approach, which will delay society achieving levels of immunity sufficient to establish a significant herd immunity.

Furthermore, I think there is also a significant chunk of society who believe we've already passed the point of no return and just need to let it run it's course....the deaths and damage due to the virus are going to happen regardless before the vaccines can make a real difference. These people won't get the vaccines either.

Then there are the people who believe there are clandestine organizations "pulling the strings of humanity" that are going to gain influence of various types through the vaccines. I have always thought the number of people in this category was very small. The last 8 months have shown me how wrong I am on this front. Many people, quite educated people, who I have known for years have told me things like they believe Bill Gates wants to kill African children and that's why he's funding vaccinations in Africa, that Fauci funded (as is profiting) the creation of this virus, etc.

So many of the attributes that have made America great are exacerbating the effect of this virus within the US. Ruggest individualism isn't always a virtue.

 

[yj_runfan]

I've heard that some companies were mass producing these vaccinces before they had been approved so that once approved the distribution would be accelerated. I am hopeful that is the case with Moderna and Pfizer and any other yet to be name effective vaccines.

Even so the logistics in getting them distributed to 6 Billion people scattered over the globe will be a huge challenge. If it takes two doses separated by 3-4 weeks, I highly doubt we're going to see any impact on COVID numbers in time for spring sports. More likely, any changes we see by spring time are going to be due to changes in our behavior - mandated, voluntary, or driven by weather - or just the natural progression of the virus.

I don't think of myself as much of a consiracy theorist, but you won't find me at the head of the line for receiving the vaccine. I think there is a huge chunk of the population who are going to take a wait-and-see approach, which will delay society achieving levels of immunity sufficient to establish a significant herd immunity.

Furthermore, I think there is also a significant chunk of society who believe we've already passed the point of no return and just need to let it run it's course....the deaths and damage due to the virus are going to happen regardless before the vaccines can make a real difference. These people won't get the vaccines either.

Then there are the people who believe there are clandestine organizations "pulling the strings of humanity" that are going to gain influence of various types through the vaccines. I have always thought the number of people in this category was very small. The last 8 months have shown me how wrong I am on this front. Many people, quite educated people, who I have known for years have told me things like they believe Bill Gates wants to kill African children and that's why he's funding vaccinations in Africa, that Fauci funded (as is profiting) the creation of this virus, etc.

So many of the attributes that have made America great are exacerbating the effect of this virus within the US. Ruggest individualism isn't always a virtue.

Another category... people that have seen “I Am Legend”. ?

 

[CoventryTrackXCguy]

I've heard that some companies were mass producing these vaccinces before they had been approved so that once approved the distribution would be accelerated. I am hopeful that is the case with Moderna and Pfizer and any other yet to be name effective vaccines.

Even so the logistics in getting them distributed to 6 Billion people scattered over the globe will be a huge challenge. If it takes two doses separated by 3-4 weeks, I highly doubt we're going to see any impact on COVID numbers in time for spring sports. More likely, any changes we see by spring time are going to be due to changes in our behavior - mandated, voluntary, or driven by weather - or just the natural progression of the virus.

I don't think of myself as much of a consiracy theorist, but you won't find me at the head of the line for receiving the vaccine. I think there is a huge chunk of the population who are going to take a wait-and-see approach, which will delay society achieving levels of immunity sufficient to establish a significant herd immunity.

Furthermore, I think there is also a significant chunk of society who believe we've already passed the point of no return and just need to let it run it's course....the deaths and damage due to the virus are going to happen regardless before the vaccines can make a real difference. These people won't get the vaccines either.

Then there are the people who believe there are clandestine organizations "pulling the strings of humanity" that are going to gain influence of various types through the vaccines. I have always thought the number of people in this category was very small. The last 8 months have shown me how wrong I am on this front. Many people, quite educated people, who I have known for years have told me things like they believe Bill Gates wants to kill African children and that's why he's funding vaccinations in Africa, that Fauci funded (as is profiting) the creation of this virus, etc.

So many of the attributes that have made America great are exacerbating the effect of this virus within the US. Ruggest individualism isn't always a virtue.

I bet there is a substantial overlap between the people who are against getting the vaccine, and those who are not wearing masks and social distancing so much. I bet that the cases are far more prevalent in those people. My hope is that whenever the vaccine does get rolled out, that the anti-science crowd will already be fairly immune to the virus, and they will not so adversely affect our herd immunization as we might think.

 

[RedChief]

A few of the senior boys at Lakota West have put together a 3200 meter time trial on Saturday night (11/21) 7pm at Lakota West track. If you have any runners interested in their 3200 time or perhaps a senior trying to catch the attention of a college coach, have them contact colemancronk@gmail.com or @zczrunning on Instagram. They will have an electronic timing company and over a dozen sub 16 5k runners from Indiana and Ohio have already committed. There’s no fee and no spectators.

 

[yj_runfan]

I bet there is a substantial overlap between the people who are against getting the vaccine, and those who are not wearing masks and social distancing so much. I bet that the cases are far more prevalent in those people. My hope is that whenever the vaccine does get rolled out, that the anti-science crowd will already be fairly immune to the virus, and they will not so adversely affect our herd immunization as we might think.

The fastest developed and tested vaccine in human history... what could possibly go wrong?
Does anyone know how long the vaccines effectiveness will last? I haven’t heard that estimate. What if they discover it wears off in 6 months?
Is anyone else wondering about possible long term side affects for a vaccine created over a few month period?

 

[Supertramp]

The fastest developed and tested vaccine in human history... what could possibly go wrong?
Does anyone know how long the vaccines effectiveness will last? I haven’t heard that estimate. What if they discover it wears off in 6 months?
Is anyone else wondering about possible long term side affects for a vaccine created over a few month period?

Studies are saying that COVID immunity could last years, maybe even decades.

Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint (Published 2020)

Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response, researchers reported.

www.nytimes.com

As far as long term vaccine risks, obviously you don't know what you don't know. But at the same time, it seems like this mRNA tech is even more fragile than a weakened or dead strand of the virus (a big reason why they need the freezers), so if anything the concern was that they would be less effective than other vaccines, but the new studies say they are very effective.

It does sound like you could feel pretty bad (fever, soreness, etc.) for a few days after getting the vaccine though. A small price to pay for all of this to be over.

 

[mathking]

Studies are saying that COVID immunity could last years, maybe even decades.

Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint (Published 2020)

Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response, researchers reported.

www.nytimes.com

As far as long term vaccine risks, obviously you don't know what you don't know. But at the same time, it seems like this mRNA tech is even more fragile than a weakened or dead strand of the virus (a big reason why they need the freezers), so if anything the concern was that they would be less effective than other vaccines, but the new studies say they are very effective.

It does sound like you could feel pretty bad (fever, soreness, etc.) for a few days after getting the vaccine though. A small price to pay for all of this to be over.

This is very hopeful. Extremely hopeful. But it has the problem that this is specifically studying those with enough symptoms to seek treatment. (This was pointed out by one of the authors in an interview on the radio.) If we did nothing, let everyone get it, we could still be looking at 5-6 years before we could get significant herd immunity from just infections. Which would mean a lot more deaths.

As for the mRNA vaccines needing freezers meaning they are weaker, and thus producing a weaker immune response, that's not a scientifically logical line of reasoning.

 

[CoventryTrackXCguy]

This is very hopeful. Extremely hopeful. But it has the problem that this is specifically studying those with enough symptoms to seek treatment. (This was pointed out by one of the authors in an interview on the radio.) If we did nothing, let everyone get it, we could still be looking at 5-6 years before we could get significant herd immunity from just infections. Which would mean a lot more deaths.

As for the mRNA vaccines needing freezers meaning they are weaker, and thus producing a weaker immune response, that's not a scientifically logical line of reasoning.

For what it is worth, there has been no evidence of significant widespread reinfections from Covid, and this thing has been circulating around for 9-10 months now. I am aware that there may have been a few people who have been reinfected, but they are likely rare genetic anomallies, and the vast majority of those infected in the last 10 months do not seem to be getting reinfected yet.

Assuming the vaccine works as effectively as having actually been exposed to the virus, this puts immunity at least in flu territory. And was that not the big argument as to why we are shutting down for Covid when we haven't for the flu, is that there is no vaccine for the flu? Well, now, in the next few months, we will have a covid vaccine becoming increasingly available, that is more effective then a flu vaccine. And the whole argument for shutting down for covid, when we dont for flu, loses its footing.

 

[yj_runfan]

I need to learn how they predict the length of time a brand new vaccine will retain immunity. I’m not sure what a reliable source would be.

 

[mathking]

For what it is worth, there has been no evidence of significant widespread reinfections from Covid, and this thing has been circulating around for 9-10 months now. I am aware that there may have been a few people who have been reinfected, but they are likely rare genetic anomallies, and the vast majority of those infected in the last 10 months do not seem to be getting reinfected yet.

Assuming the vaccine works as effectively as having actually been exposed to the virus, this puts immunity at least in flu territory. And was that not the big argument as to why we are shutting down for Covid when we haven't for the flu, is that there is no vaccine for the flu? Well, now, in the next few months, we will have a covid vaccine becoming increasingly available, that is more effective then a flu vaccine. And the whole argument for shutting down for covid, when we dont for flu, loses its footing.

Well, we do have flu vaccines, for the record. We have been getting inundated with calls to get vaccinated agains the flu for the past two months. The reason we were told that Covid-19 is more dangerous than the flu is because it is more dangerous than the flu. We have already lost several multiples of people more than in a typical year from the flu, with far fewer people getting infected than in a typical flu season. This virus is more likely to kill you, more likely to put you in a hospital, more likely stick around keep kicking your butt for weeks or months, and more likely to give you long lasting health effects. Back in the spring and summer the argument against shutting down was, essentially, we don't even know if there ever will be a vaccine so we should just learn to live with it. Generally followed by arguments that it wasn't really any worse than the flu or that the number of reported deaths was vastly over inflated, or something else. Then later in the summer it was "sure, infections are going up but not hospitalizations." A couple weeks later it was "OK, hospitalizations are up, but not deaths." Then it was crickets.

Now that it seems likely that we are only months away from widespread vaccine availability it seems like the argument against more restrictions in the short term wouldn't carry as much weight. At least it was plausible, if you were willing to accept hundreds of thousands of deaths, to argue in the spring that it was a bad idea to restrict our activities for because it could take years (or forever) to get a decent vaccine.

Here is something to consider... our economy will not get back to anything like normal as long as we have the kind of infection situation we have now. This is the view of the great majority of economists. It is the view of almost every business organization. It is born out by the fact that the states that never implemented restrictions are hurting as much or more economically as those that did. And we haven't really begun to feel the bite from the lost productivity of those who have died or been disabled by this.

 

[mathking]

I need to learn how they predict the length of time a brand new vaccine will retain immunity. I’m not sure what a reliable source would be.

They do it in exactly the same way the cited study predicted the immunity response from Covid-19. You measure the antibody response over time. It's not perfect either. There are sometimes confounding factors. It's really cool math though.

 

[yj_runfan]

They do it in exactly the same way the cited study predicted the immunity response from Covid-19. You measure the antibody response over time. It's not perfect either. There are sometimes confounding factors. It's really cool math though.

Wouldn’t the short time frame they have to measure affect the accuracy?

 

[mathking]

Wouldn’t the short time frame they have to measure affect the accuracy?

It makes the uncertainty larger. (Just as it does for the study cited about about immunity from contracting the disease.) So that right now they can probably only see with strong certainty out to a year or two. The longer we go the further into the future the certainty extends. There are decades of data that show how antibody immunity decays over time. So that once you start measuring the response over time there is a lot of evidence on which to base the models.

There is very strong evidence that the vaccine immunity will last at least a year. All of the published data suggests that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines generate as strong or stronger an immune response as contracting Covid-19.

 

[psycho_dad]

We still do not have enough proper PPE for medical staff dealing with this crud.
My wife has finally reached her breaking point and she is now seeing things first hand. "We don't have enough swabs. We don't have enough gloves. Staff in the ICU doesn't have enough either. All available is going to ICU and they are rationing it." The back up staffing that was in place in case they were under staffed if cases rose, is no longer available as those people have gone to other states. They are pulling untrained people to fill the staffing holes.

We can't just rely on a vaccine. I have lost hope that it will be distributed properly when we can't do the simple things like PPE. When it is your loved ones that have to deal with this stuff every day and they are not properly equipped or protected 9 months into it, it makes your blood boil.

We better hope that people in charge get it together. We still have 6-8 months of this and that is with vaccines.