hilliard-city-schools-suspends-all-extracurricular-activities/

[moonshadow]

Lakota CC just tweeted, hope its true:

Good news! Cross Country has officially been classified as a low/noncontact sport by the OHSAA. Also the meet director for our first meet, August 29th is feeling very good about the meet happening and everyone competing safely.

 

[madman]

I personally don't think the number of people that get it matters the most. The over 150,000 that have died seems like the more important number. People are still dying from heart disease and cancer and every other cause of death. On top of the 150,000 that have died, there are another 60,0000 that have died above what would normally die in the USA to this point of the year. This is not the flu we normally deal with. If you are hospitalized because of covid, you have 32% chance of dying in Ohio. Nationally, it's 34%. That number goes up and down depending on the hospitals ability to properly treat the patients. I feel it's our obligation not to over run the hospitals.

We have no idea how many people have the flu each year. We do not test for it like we are doing for covid. Any comparison is meaningless. Number of people dead.

Important numbers to me. % of those tested that test positive. Total number of hospitalizations. Total number of deaths and percent hospitalized that die. Other people might have what they feel are important. It's already the 3rd leading cause of death in the US.

... and the only one that's contagious in the top 7.

Top causes of death in the United States in 2020: Heart disease, cancer and COVID-19

Up-to-date numbers on how coronavirus is overtaking common causes of death for Americans

usafacts.org

WHO/HQ/DDI/DNA/CATINTERNATIONAL GUIDELINES FOR CERTIFICATION AND CLASSIFICATION (CODING) OF COVID-19AS CAUSE OF DEATH

 

[Percidae]

Uhm. I went to some lengths using Ohio stats to drill down on these numbers. I will state them again. The number of confirmed cases is well established to be at most 1/10 of the actual case count. That cannot be overlooked. PD knows that or maybe he just chooses not to remember it.


The real death rate for teacher’s based on Ohio statistics is 0.384% projecting 109 teachers. My view is that is 4x more than what would be reality because these calculations assume every teacher will contract the virus. So a more realistic number is probably 25-30 deaths. That is putting it down probably close to deaths that would occur for commuting to and from school. You can argue that is still to great of a sacrifice but that case should be made based on the merits.

 

[Percidae]

Cor

Uhm. I went to some lengths using Ohio stats to drill down on these numbers. I will state them again. The number of confirmed cases is well established to be at most 1/10 of the actual case count. That cannot be overlooked. PD knows that or maybe he just chooses not to remember it.


The real death rate for teacher’s based on Ohio statistics is 0.384% projecting 109 teachers. My view is that is 4x more than what would be reality because these calculations assume every teacher will contract the virus. So a more realistic number is probably 25-30 deaths. That is putting it down probably close to deaths that would occur for commuting to and from school. You can argue that is still to great of a sacrifice but that case should be made based on the merits.

View attachment 8851

Correction.. 0.384 is the death rate for all of Ohio. The death rate for just the teachers would be 0.1% because there are virtually no teachers in the 70+ age group.

 

[The_Rocco]

Really you can’t look at stats when it comes to teachers. Is there any other situation right now where you put 600-1200 14-18 year olds in a building 6-7 hours a day with 22-65 year olds? The prolonged exposure in a confined area is going to impact a person much worse than normal circumstances.

 

[Percidae]

Really you can’t look at stats when it comes to teachers. Is there any other situation right now where you put 600-1200 14-18 year olds in a building 6-7 hours a day with 22-65 year olds? The prolonged exposure in a confined area is going to impact a person much worse than normal circumstances.

In what way? Be specific. My calculations assume 100% of teachers will become infected. I understand that viral load can contribute to worse outcomes. Medical professionals have the greatest risk of contracting heavy load because they are face to face with very sick people. That situation does not describe what teachers will face. Everyone will be wearing masks and teachers will be some distance away from the students. I would be interested to learn about how classroom settings actually do impact teachers that become infected from their students. Is there data on this from schools that have gone back into session? From Europe perhaps?

 

[madman]

I'm cherry-picking, but to provide another view of this coin...

After Reopening Schools, Israel Orders Them To Shut If COVID-19 Cases Are Discovered

At least 244 students and school employees have tested positive for the coronavirus in recent weeks, according to the education ministry. At least 130 cases occurred in a single school in Jerusalem.

www.npr.org

 

[The_Rocco]

In what way? Be specific. My calculations assume 100% of teachers will become infected. I understand that viral load can contribute to worse outcomes. Medical professionals have the greatest risk of contracting heavy load because they are face to face with very sick people. That situation does not describe what teachers will face. Everyone will be wearing masks and teachers will be some distance away from the students. I would be interested to learn about how classroom settings actually do impact teachers that become infected from their students. Is there data on this from schools that have gone back into session? From Europe perhaps?

If you look at the guidelines they only require schools to have students wear masks when they can’t be at least 3 feet away. They also don’t specify what types of masks to wear. I believe the medical field has the best masks on hand. Also many old school buildings have terrible air ventilation with no air conditioning. The exposure to to teachers will be much worse when compared to doctors that have the best safety precautions on hand.

 

[Percidae]

If you look at the guidelines they only require schools to have students wear masks when they can’t be at least 3 feet away. They also don’t specify what types of masks to wear. I believe the medical field has the best masks on hand. Also many old school buildings have terrible air ventilation with no air conditioning.

If I were a teacher, I don't think I would go into a classroom where students were not required to wear a mask. My wife is a teacher and we were very troubled when the superintendent of her school initially said students would not be required to wear masks. That has since been changed and all students will now be required to wear masks in the classrooms. I also think all teachers should be provided with N95 masks. I think teacher unions should push for this accommodation.

 

[psycho_dad]

If I were a teacher, I don't think I would go into a classroom where students were not required to wear a mask. My wife is a teacher and we were very troubled when the superintendent of her school initially said students would not be required to wear masks. That has since been changed and all students will now be required to wear masks in the classrooms. I also think all teachers should be provided with N95 masks. I think teacher unions should push for this accommodation.

Have her get an N95 and start wearing it now. They are not fun and it will take some time to get used to. I've only worn one a few times, but I had trouble. I don't think I could do it for 30 min the first time. It would take me a week to build up, I would guess. They decrease the oxygen. Some people handle them easier than others.

 

[pheesh]

In what way? Be specific. My calculations assume 100% of teachers will become infected. I understand that viral load can contribute to worse outcomes. Medical professionals have the greatest risk of contracting heavy load because they are face to face with very sick people. That situation does not describe what teachers will face. Everyone will be wearing masks and teachers will be some distance away from the students. I would be interested to learn about how classroom settings actually do impact teachers that become infected from their students. Is there data on this from schools that have gone back into session? From Europe perhaps?

These articles link to a few studies:

‘This Push to Open Schools Is Guaranteed to Fail’

It is time to stop pretending. Our children are staying home.

www.theatlantic.com

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

Her research assistant spent 30 hours hunting for data—for example on whether younger students are less adept at spreading the virus than older ones, and whether outbreaks followed reopenings—and found little that addressed the risk of contagion in schools.

This is just about what happened in Israel when schools opened.

America wants to reopen schools? Here’s how to learn from Israel’s mistakes

***

www.haaretz.com

 

[The_Rocco]

If I were a teacher, I don't think I would go into a classroom where students were not required to wear a mask. My wife is a teacher and we were very troubled when the superintendent of her school initially said students would not be required to wear masks. That has since been changed and all students will now be required to wear masks in the classrooms. I also think all teachers should be provided with N95 masks. I think teacher unions should push for this accommodation.

The unions are but when you have a school board that votes on all policies (which are not experts and have their personal beliefs and agendas) it will not happen in some cases. The state should have never put this policy on districts. The experts should have mandated it.

There will be school boards even going against the recommendations of the their county health department just so their kid can have a normal school year. It is already happening in my district.

 

[madman]

If I were a teacher, I don't think I would go into a classroom where students were not required to wear a mask. My wife is a teacher and we were very troubled when the superintendent of her school initially said students would not be required to wear masks. That has since been changed and all students will now be required to wear masks in the classrooms. I also think all teachers should be provided with N95 masks. I think teacher unions should push for this accommodation.

The number of nurses in the U.S. is almost the same as the number of teachers. If all teachers need to wear N95 masks, this will nearly double the demand on this vital piece of ppe (the number of doctors is ~30% of the number of teachers and not all doctors and nurses are in stituations where they need to wear N95 masks.) As recently as July 22nd the AMA has indicated there is still a shortage of these supplies. Doubling the demand isn't going to be good for anyone.

From the CDC:

"When practicing extended use of N95 respirators, the maximum recommended extended use period is 8–12 hours. Respirators should not be worn for multiple work shifts and should not be reused after extended use. N95 respirators should be removed (doffed) and discarded before activities such as meals and restroom breaks. "

At a cost of $3-$5/mask in a modest size district of ~100 teachers, this is going to cost ~$500/day or ~$90,000 if we have to do it all year. When state and local funding is reduced due to declining revenues I don't see the districts coming up with these funds. Furthermore if things are bad enough that we need N95 masks then we also need face shields.

Even if you could get the majority of teachers to work in a setting that requires this kind of ppe, I think it would freak out the students and parents. We might as well wear hazmat suits.

 

[Percidae]

Have her get an N95 and start wearing it now. They are not fun and it will take some time to get used to. I've only worn one a few times, but I had trouble. I don't think I could do it for 30 min the first time. It would take me a week to build up, I would guess. They decrease the oxygen. Some people handle them easier than others.

Me and mine have been wearing N95 since the start. Bought the 10 years ago. We use the Italian procedure to disinfect and re-use them. 70% alcohol in a spray bottle. I know this is not ideal but we are in the middle of a pandemic so you do the best you can with what you have. I believe this is still better than surgical masks.

 

[psycho_dad]

Me and mine have been wearing N95 since the start. Bought the 10 years ago. We use the Italian procedure to disinfect and re-use them. 70% alcohol in a spray bottle. I know this is not ideal but we are in the middle of a pandemic so you do the best you can with what you have. I believe this is still better than surgical masks.

Good, I give you credit for wearing them. I can only do it for 10-15 minutes at a time.

 

[Percidae]

These articles link to a few studies:

‘This Push to Open Schools Is Guaranteed to Fail’

It is time to stop pretending. Our children are staying home.

www.theatlantic.com

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

Her research assistant spent 30 hours hunting for data—for example on whether younger students are less adept at spreading the virus than older ones, and whether outbreaks followed reopenings—and found little that addressed the risk of contagion in schools.

This is just about what happened in Israel when schools opened.

America wants to reopen schools? Here’s how to learn from Israel’s mistakes

***

www.haaretz.com

Thanks for these articles. Well, I could have done without the first one by the Atlantic which was nothing more than a political hit job.

The "ScienceMag" article was extremely illuminating. It was full of good information. My takeaways are this:
1. Schools should not reopen if there is widespread community spread.
2. Schools do not contribute to and are not the cause of increased community spread but they mirror what is going on in the community at large.
3. Masks and distancing can be effective within schools.
4. Plans should be in place on how to react to positive cases. One case need not shut down the entire school.

The third article that discussed the Israel situation was mostly political hit but did have some good info as well. They left out a very significant fact that was described in the ScienceMag article that reveals their bias. They never mention that the schools were open and not having a problem until there was a heat wave that made it unbearable to continue to wear masks. That is when they started having problems. The Science article pointed this out. The most troubling thing I found about the Israel situation was the difficulty they had in getting teenagers to adhere to the mask policy. I hope that is not the case for Ohio schools that attempt mask wearing.

 

[pheesh]

The most troubling thing I found about the Israel situation was the difficulty they had in getting teenagers to adhere to the mask policy. I hope that is not the case for Ohio schools that attempt mask wearing.

I'll defer to teachers and administrators opinions about how realistic adherence to a mask policy is.

A couple of interesting papers on COVID transmission, airflow and HVAC.

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea

COVID-19 Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea

wwwnc.cdc.gov

 

[psycho_dad]

Parents! I was just at a customer's home this morning. North Royalton. Long story short. Petitions are going around to demand in school classes. Demand Football be played.(Was told specifically football) Demanding kids are not allowed to be tested for COVID. Is that what we are dealing with? Reasonable demands like that? I was never so happy to say I was not a resident. Just here to remodel the kitchen.