The Official 2020 Cincinnati Reds Thread

wolves82 said:
I agree that the Reds need to get it together quickly. In a full 162 game season season, this 1-3 would equate to about 3-9. Let's go boys.

As for lineups - Bell needs to stop with the L/R clowning. he is too driven by this. When healthy, everyday players: Suarez, Votto, Galvis, Moose on the IF. Castellanos, Shogo, Aquino in the OF. versus righty, play Barny at C and Winker at DH. versus lefty, Casalli at C and Senzel in CF, shift Aquino to DH.
With Moose out, platoon Van Meter and Farmer at 2B.
With Senzel out, Ervin can DH vs lefties.

Never need to see anyone else, play your best guys almost every day. LFG!
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Not picking at you personally, I dont know you but I came on here figuring someone would post something a out 1 game being equal to 3 games in a normal year. That is not how math works.

If one loss was equal to 3 losses, then if a team came into a game down 3 games in the standings to the team they were playing, a loss would find them 6 down but a win would get them back to even.

The fact is mathematically games are still worth one game. Each team essentially blew off the first 102 games of the season and started at 51-51 or 0-0 or whatever number you want to use but they were all tied up with 60 games to go.

Stats wise we will see about 1/3 typical homeruns or RBI for the season, so some stats could be said to be affected by a factor of three, but not the win loss column.
 
D4fan said:
Not picking at you personally, I dont know you but I came on here figuring someone would post something a out 1 game being equal to 3 games in a normal year. That is not how math works.

If one loss was equal to 3 losses, then if a team came into a game down 3 games in the standings to the team they were playing, a loss would find them 6 down but a win would get them back to even.

The fact is mathematically games are still worth one game. Each team essentially blew off the first 102 games of the season and started at 51-51 or 0-0 or whatever number you want to use but they were all tied up with 60 games to go.

Stats wise we will see about 1/3 typical homeruns or RBI for the season, so some stats could be said to be affected by a factor of three, but not the win loss column.
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I'm a data analyst in my career, so yeah, I get how math works. Maybe I communicated poorly, maybe you read this way too literally. I'm not saying literally 1 game = 3 games, of course I realize how the standings work, everyone does.

I'm was simply saying in a regular 162 game season, the 1-3 start is no big deal. But in this short season, it is a bigger deal. It is the same portion of the season as 3-9 would be in a full season. So it's time to fix it, right now. Everyone else seemed to understand my point.

Obviously at 1-4, with the Cubs 4-1, the Reds are only 3 games back with 55 to play. But they need to fix it quickly.
 
Sig Hansen said:
If this team doesn't turn it around by the end of the weekend, fire Bell and bring in Barry Larkin. You can't blow this season away
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With the money Castellini spent for a 2-year window, you are correct, he will not throw half of it away. Not saying this is Bell's fault, but something will be done quickly.
 
wolves82 said:
I'm a data analyst in my career, so yeah, I get how math works. Maybe I communicated poorly, maybe you read this way too literally. I'm not saying literally 1 game = 3 games, of course I realize how the standings work, everyone does.

I'm was simply saying in a regular 162 game season, the 1-3 start is no big deal. But in this short season, it is a bigger deal. It is the same portion of the season as 3-9 would be in a full season. So it's time to fix it, right now. Everyone else seemed to understand my point.

Obviously at 1-4, with the Cubs 4-1, the Reds are only 3 games back with 55 to play. But they need to fix it quickly.
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You were projecting what their record would look like on a 162 game basis, it was pretty clear. Just ignore him.
 
If you are going to do something radical like firing Bell and bringing in someone with zero experience like Larkin, this would be the year to do it!

With the short season, maybe someting like this works.
 
thavoice said:
Will need to go (projected) 32-23 the rest of the way to get into the postseason.....
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You've been posting like this daily, and it is hilarious. The simple fact is that you just don't know. Noone does. But to assume that it will take 33-27 to make the playoffs shows a general lack of understanding of basic numbers. Some facts:
- there are 30 MLB teams
- in the proposed format for this season, 16 teams will make the playoffs, 8 in each league.
- 16 is slightly more than half of 30
- each of the MLB games will have a winner and a loser, thus overall, the MLB cumulative won/lost record will always be .500

Got it? So it is almost a mathematical certainty that at least 1 team under .500 makes the playoffs. It could be 2 or 3.

So you can stop these silly posts.
 
OH really, we dont know?
What a f'n genius.

My projection. 33-27 gets them in.
Could it be worse?
Yeah.

but 33-27 is where I am sticking.

wolves82 said:
You've been posting like this daily, and it is hilarious. The simple fact is that you just don't know. Noone does. But to assume that it will take 33-27 to make the playoffs shows a general lack of understanding of basic numbers. Some facts:
- there are 30 MLB teams
- in the proposed format for this season, 16 teams will make the playoffs, 8 in each league.
- 16 is slightly more than half of 30
- each of the MLB games will have a winner and a loser, thus overall, the MLB cumulative won/lost record will always be .500

Got it? So it is almost a mathematical certainty that at least 1 team under .500 makes the playoffs. It could be 2 or 3.

So you can stop these silly posts.
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wolves82 said:
I'm a data analyst in my career, so yeah, I get how math works. Maybe I communicated poorly, maybe you read this way too literally. I'm not saying literally 1 game = 3 games, of course I realize how the standings work, everyone does.

I'm was simply saying in a regular 162 game season, the 1-3 start is no big deal. But in this short season, it is a bigger deal. It is the same portion of the season as 3-9 would be in a full season. So it's time to fix it, right now. Everyone else seemed to understand my point.

Obviously at 1-4, with the Cubs 4-1, the Reds are only 3 games back with 55 to play. But they need to fix it quickly.
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Just my luck ( trying to use someone as an example who understands numbers far better than I). I think you understand it clearly, but the number of people who believe a deficit of one game back in the standings will be three times as difficult to overcome this year is what prompted me to come on here and swat this concept around a bit.

I think it would be more properly said that you dont want to fall behind this year because there is far less room for error due to a very short season compared to normal. Overcoming a 5 game deficit with 10 games played and 50 to be played is far more difficult than a similar scenario 10 games into the season but with 152 to be played.

Listen to talk radio? If so, pay attention to how many people espouse the idea of each game played this season is the equivalent to three in a normal year.


And as we always say when a team starts slow, "it's ok, its early".
 
eastside_purple said:
You were projecting what their record would look like on a 162 game basis, it was pretty clear. Just ignore him.
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Sorry, I thought this area was open to anyone. I will leave it to you as you clearly have no desire to have any new ideas inserted into your thinking.
 
D4fan said:
Sorry, I thought this area was open to anyone. I will leave it to you as you clearly have no desire to have any new ideas inserted into your thinking.
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No one is saying a win or loss today multiples by 3 in ground gained or lost in the standings. You misrepresented his point which was simply projecting what the starting record so far in 2020 would be on a 162 game schedule. ??‍♂️
 
D4fan said:
Just my luck ( trying to use someone as an example who understands numbers far better than I). I think you understand it clearly, but the number of people who believe a deficit of one game back in the standings will be three times as difficult to overcome this year is what prompted me to come on here and swat this concept around a bit.

I think it would be more properly said that you dont want to fall behind this year because there is far less room for error due to a very short season compared to normal. Overcoming a 5 game deficit with 10 games played and 50 to be played is far more difficult than a similar scenario 10 games into the season but with 152 to be played.

Listen to talk radio? If so, pay attention to how many people espouse the idea of each game played this season is the equivalent to three in a normal year.


And as we always say when a team starts slow, "it's ok, its early".
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No problem. we all misunderstand occasionally on short posts. And no, I typically try to avoid talk radio. Too many bombastic types who will say anything to get attention and spur discussion. My exception is 97.1 FM in Columbus (The FAN) in the afternoons. Common Man & T-bone are juvenile idiots who occasionally mix in some sports talk. Usually worth a few laughs.
 
The offense has sucked but that’s expected early. The Bullpen being horrendous and Cody Rees still being on the team is mind boggling. I’ve never seen a Pitcher like Reed get so many chances in the League w/ zero success. Even Kevin Gregg had a season or two where he was decent in Atl, Reed had always sucked.
 
D4fan said:
Not picking at you personally, I dont know you but I came on here figuring someone would post something a out 1 game being equal to 3 games in a normal year. That is not how math works.

If one loss was equal to 3 losses, then if a team came into a game down 3 games in the standings to the team they were playing, a loss would find them 6 down but a win would get them back to even.

The fact is mathematically games are still worth one game. Each team essentially blew off the first 102 games of the season and started at 51-51 or 0-0 or whatever number you want to use but they were all tied up with 60 games to go.

Stats wise we will see about 1/3 typical homeruns or RBI for the season, so some stats could be said to be affected by a factor of three, but not the win loss column.
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D4 I completely agree, this notion that a game is worth 3 games is nonsense. EVERYONE is playing 60 games (except maybe the Marlins). One game worth one game. This is where in sports talk, someone got cute and made this statement and everyone ran with it.
 
D4fan said:
Sorry, I thought this area was open to anyone. I will leave it to you as you clearly have no desire to have any new ideas inserted into your thinking.
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Actually, ignore EP, D4, he's never much for conversation, he just shouts people down for their opinion...on an open message board no less...
 
Omar said:
The offense has sucked but that’s expected early. The Bullpen being horrendous and Cody Rees still being on the team is mind boggling. I’ve never seen a Pitcher like Reed get so many chances in the League w/ zero success. Even Kevin Gregg had a season or two where he was decent in Atl, Reed had always sucked.
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I think Reds fans need to take a deep breath...

Fact #1 - in Gray, Castillo and Bauer, we and roll out 3 starting pitchers that give us a great chance to win every time out.
Fact #2 - the offense can't get much worse. This team has hitters and they will hit.
Fact #3 - There is 55 games left in the season, and you're 3 games back. There is a LONG, LONG way to go in this.

Yes, the bullpen is going to have to be better, there is no doubt about that. But I'm still confident this is one of the better teams in the NL.
 
Red14 said:
D4 I completely agree, this notion that a game is worth 3 games is nonsense. EVERYONE is playing 60 games (except maybe the Marlins). One game worth one game. This is where in sports talk, someone got cute and made this statement and everyone ran with it.
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I don’t think the Marlins will be the only team to play less then 60. Actually I’m concerned that MLB is going to get this season completed. I’m usually pretty optimistic about Covid but if your job depends on it how hard is it to stay away from compromising situations and stay Covid free? Behave yourself for a few months.
 
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