They increase the number of ICU beds available as needed. Not saying that is a bad thing, but it makes it nearly impossible to look at statistics and make any type of determination. (And let's make it clear, I'm not saying they are fudging the numbers to make the situation look better. I honestly think they see the need to increase ICU beds and are doing the responsible thing and making that happen.) For example, when they were at 640 covid-19 in the ICU's the percentage of ICU beds being used was higher, but there was also slightly less beds available. % of hospitals reporting changes too, although it's always about 80% when I have checked. So, it never looks any better or any worse. However, as you can see. The numbers for the month have risen. 640 at the start. 890 at the end. Now, the good news is the number of ventilators available has always been 2-3 times what was needed. The other real good news is the number of deaths has been falling. Hard to tell though if the deaths will rise as the hospitalizations have over the last month and there is just a lag. Let's hope not. I have family that lives there. They open and close things left and right. One week they can go out to eat at a place and the next it's closed because of overcrowding and/or an outbreak. Right now, I think that 10% of the positive tests they are getting are from kids under 17. Only a few of those have resulted in death. However, there have been a few deaths. Just not enough to hit 1% of the total deaths. So, it shows as 0%.
What are the decision makers going to look at? The easy stat to look at is number of cases and number of hospitalizations. They are going up.
With increased testing there are going to be more positive tests. Common sense. However, the Percentage of positive tests has stayed very steady in NC. They have been as low as 8%, but stay about 10% ish. I saw some place that other parts of the country have seen it go up from 7-8% a month ago to about 14%. Texas, AZ etc... That's not a good sign. Who knows how much of that is the tests being better and less false negatives?
The NC site is interesting because they pose a question before every graph, but leave it up to me and you to summarize the data. Does NC have the capacity to test 5000-7000 people a day. And then the graph shows they are easily 2-3 times that. The worst day is still over 5000. Why pose it as a question? Just in the graph above. Is NC seeing a 14-day downward trajectory or sustained leveling in number of people currently hospitalized? Um...NO? Not really? They seem to be making decisions based on 14-day decreases or leveling of numbers.
I do not know how to interpret all the data. My son sees things in the data and more importantly sees memos and directives from the CDC etc.. and he tells me things are going to happen weeks before they do.
How do we make it so that kids are back in school? Is distance learning a realistic thing? Is some sort of Hybrid going to work? What does it mean for athletics and is that even important at this time. I think it is. I think athletics is important. My son got to Pole Vault for the first time since January this past Thursday. It was like turning on a light switch. He's like a new man in 3 days. It matters. I do not think he will do well with distance learning in College. He needs the socialization. Some things he is very good at alone, but academics is not one of them. Self taught guitarist who will spend hours alone playing and getting better and better. Learns other things much differently. There are kids at risk of falling way behind. How do we correct that and make this coming school year happen?
www.npr.org
www.woodlandsonline.com
