AFC East
- Thread starter Yappi
- Start date
I'm picking Buffalo to win the East. Now before I get shredded here are my reasons:
* New England is bound to weaken. Brady may be the best QB to ever play the game but he's getting OLD. The arm strength is dropping and defenses are going to eat that up.
* Among the other 3 East teams the Bills IMO made the best off season moves and are structurally in the best place to take advantage of the situation if the Pats slide.
* The Bills have the advantage of a returning head coach & GM.
* The Bills are bringing back ALL but one of their defenders off a defense that was among the best in the NFL.
* The Bills have significantly upgraded their 2 biggest weaknesses - Offensive Line and Receiving core. These two position groups were arguably the two worst units in the NFL. For sure they were bottom 3. Even improving them to average, which I think the Bills at minimum have done, dramatically improves the team.
* So it comes down to 2nd year QB Allen. if you think Allen sucks and was a bust draft pick then you're laughing at my choice of the Bills as AFC East champs. But if your like me and think Allen showed signs of being a great NFL QB then you're excited to see his improvements for next year.
Keep in mind the Bills plans were for Allen to sit out the 2018 season like Mahomes sat out his rookie season. The idea was for Allen to improve on the bench and not play until the end of the season. Buffalo hoped McCarron could hold down the position to then.
But things didn't work out and Allen ended up starting in the 2nd game of the season. Unfortunately for the Bills AND Allen he hadn't taken very many 1st team snaps in training camp & the pre-season. Even worse his WR's had been chosen to compliment McCarron's passing style. All of this was on top of Allen being universally regarded as a RAW prospect! Throw in the NFL's worst O-line and you had a recipe for disaster.
Allen though didn't do to bad. He had a nightmarish game against Green Bay but an all pro game against Minnesota. He got hurt against Houston and missed 4 games. But when he got back the Bills had revamped the Offense to better fit Allen's style (strong arm & hyper athleticism) by replacing THREE O-lineman, cutting 2 big but slow WR's and replacing them with two fast guys (one signed off Denver's practice squad & the other an undrafted FA).
The Bills also brought in a veteran QB (D Andeson) to work with Allen. Bottom line is that all this paid off, as the game slowed down for Allen and he was a much better QB post injury then he was before getting hurt. In fact in games that he started & finished Allen went 5 - 5.
Allen now has a full off season to fine tune his footwork & throwing mechanics; a full off season to refine the offense to even better match his strengths; an upgraded O-line and receiving group and the fact that Allen will be taking most of the 1st team snaps through pre-season and I'm cautiously optimistic his game will improve substantially. And if it does I have the Bills going 10 - 6 and dethroning the Pats.
* New England is bound to weaken. Brady may be the best QB to ever play the game but he's getting OLD. The arm strength is dropping and defenses are going to eat that up.
* Among the other 3 East teams the Bills IMO made the best off season moves and are structurally in the best place to take advantage of the situation if the Pats slide.
* The Bills have the advantage of a returning head coach & GM.
* The Bills are bringing back ALL but one of their defenders off a defense that was among the best in the NFL.
* The Bills have significantly upgraded their 2 biggest weaknesses - Offensive Line and Receiving core. These two position groups were arguably the two worst units in the NFL. For sure they were bottom 3. Even improving them to average, which I think the Bills at minimum have done, dramatically improves the team.
* So it comes down to 2nd year QB Allen. if you think Allen sucks and was a bust draft pick then you're laughing at my choice of the Bills as AFC East champs. But if your like me and think Allen showed signs of being a great NFL QB then you're excited to see his improvements for next year.
Keep in mind the Bills plans were for Allen to sit out the 2018 season like Mahomes sat out his rookie season. The idea was for Allen to improve on the bench and not play until the end of the season. Buffalo hoped McCarron could hold down the position to then.
But things didn't work out and Allen ended up starting in the 2nd game of the season. Unfortunately for the Bills AND Allen he hadn't taken very many 1st team snaps in training camp & the pre-season. Even worse his WR's had been chosen to compliment McCarron's passing style. All of this was on top of Allen being universally regarded as a RAW prospect! Throw in the NFL's worst O-line and you had a recipe for disaster.
Allen though didn't do to bad. He had a nightmarish game against Green Bay but an all pro game against Minnesota. He got hurt against Houston and missed 4 games. But when he got back the Bills had revamped the Offense to better fit Allen's style (strong arm & hyper athleticism) by replacing THREE O-lineman, cutting 2 big but slow WR's and replacing them with two fast guys (one signed off Denver's practice squad & the other an undrafted FA).
The Bills also brought in a veteran QB (D Andeson) to work with Allen. Bottom line is that all this paid off, as the game slowed down for Allen and he was a much better QB post injury then he was before getting hurt. In fact in games that he started & finished Allen went 5 - 5.
Allen now has a full off season to fine tune his footwork & throwing mechanics; a full off season to refine the offense to even better match his strengths; an upgraded O-line and receiving group and the fact that Allen will be taking most of the 1st team snaps through pre-season and I'm cautiously optimistic his game will improve substantially. And if it does I have the Bills going 10 - 6 and dethroning the Pats.
Raymo
Well-known member
I'm so tired of watching them,anyone else is fine.
GoArrowsGo
Well-known member
It's December and this isn't looking so crazy now. Bills have a chance to pull even with the Pats on Saturday. Allen is still a question mark. Very inconsistent. Still though the defense is solid and they are a fun team to watch. Depending on who they match up with in the postseason they could even pull out a win in wild card weekend.
I think Allen's inconsistency is overstated. IMO it's no more then one would expect from most 2nd year QB's. As one of the rawest high QB draft picks in recent memory Allen was a real project. That he is ahead of schedule seems pretty clear to me.
One thing that hurts Allen is his perception among the "expert" NFL guys. Coming out of Wyoming 90% of these folks, who never actually played QB, stated that Allen would be a bust on the order of Ryan Leaf. These guys, mostly wedded to their ridiculous analytics (football is chaotic with a minimum sample size so not suited IMO to sophisticated statistical analysis) even went back to Allen's HS career to justify their statements that he could NEVER be accurate.
But the eye test, which I still think is the best metric for a QB, says that Allen is almost there. He still needs to improve aspects of his game and like Brett Farve, whose game I think Allen's most closely resembles, he'll make the boneheaded throw.
Now before folks jump in and quote me the conventional stats showing Allen in the bottom 1/3 of QB's here's some stats that I think reinforce the eye test and are actually better measures of a QB:
* Total TD's, both passing & rushing. In the new era of Lamar Jackson rushing TD's will be an important QB metric. So if you take total TD's (passing + rushing) and compare that number to total turnovers (INT's + LOST fumbles) you get a great read on how good a QB is. Allen is currently 6th in the NFL with 27 TD's. And while his detractors claim Allen is a turnover machine the facts say otherwise as he has a total of only 13 TO's. So his # is 27/13 which is above a 2 ratio and quite good.
* Other stats that show Allen in a better light are his 4th quarter QB rating. He is currently #3 in the NFL. And it's not because he's piling up garbage stats because the Bills have had very closely contested 4th quarters.
* Another impressive Allen stat is that in the Red Zone he's the 3rd rated QB and is tied for 3rd in total red zone TD's. This is key for a team like Buffalo that has an elite D but only an average O.
* Finally, Allen is clutch as he's tied with Russel Wilson for the lead in leading game winning 4th quarter drives with 5. Last year he had 3 giving him a total of 8 game winning drives in 25 NFL starts.
I think it's interesting to note that if you were judging the 2018 QB class TODAY Jackson is #1 and Allen is #2. But on draft day 2018 those 2 were considered the least likely to succeed. The NFL is changing at the QB position and this time I think it's for real and will be long lasting.
The one thing I got wrong was how good the Pats D was going to be. The Pat's O has declined and if their D wasn't elite they would be 8 - 6 right now. In the era of video game offenses we forget that D still can win a lot of games - it's just sort of ugly & brutal how they do it. But look at Pittsburgh - they might have the best D in the NFL and they're right in the playoff hunt with a 3rd string QB.
Going forward though the Bills will be the favored team in the East starting next year. IMO they have their franchise QB and a lot of other young players making a big impact. There are 4 rookies starting on the D & O and a number of key 2nd year players like Allen & Edmunds also contributing. Edmunds will emerge as one the NFL dominating LB's. The guy was only 20 yrs old when he played last year. As he's learned the intricacies of the pro game he's been very impressive. And he's a freak of nature.
The Bills also have a very good coach whose creating a solid culture. But a key has been their GM. This is only his 2nd year but he inherited a Bills team with one of the worst CAP situations in the NFL. He oversaw a total rebuild and going into next season the Bills will have over $90,000,000 in CAP space. They need to add a physically big, play making WR & one more O lineman and they have the money to do it.
LaSalle2016
Active member
No kidding. Bills look like a solid team. They won’t win the division this year because all the pats have to do is win 1 (and they have Miami still) but they could theoretically end the season with the same record. Allen looked rough at the start of the year but is improving. Seems like Brady’s weakness this year is any pressure, which he used to thrive under. I guess you feel those hits more at 42 than you do at 30. Also seems like his downfield accuracy has decreased too. The arm strength is still there (he doesn’t really throw ducks like ‘15 Peyton or even Rivers). Also doesn’t help how banged up the o line and receivers are.