Region 1 2019

brian1227 said:
Why went from 2 to 0 ?.
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Pasteur was missing either Moeller's loss to St. Edward or Loyola's loss to Marist. Take the 6.5 potential L2 points off the table for whichever loss wasn't factored in yet, and Iggy's max win-out average dropped below the min lose-out averages for 8 of the teams in region 1 (Mentor, St. Ed, McKinley, Euclid, Solon, Jackson, Medina, and Cleveland Hts.). Once that happens, a team is mathematically eliminated by Eitel.
 
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Well I guess there is the possibility of West Toronto Prep cancelling the Week 10 game (it's been said on here that Ignatius would never purposely cancel at the last minute on somebody). That would be a little fishy though, especially since West Toronto just gave Warren Harding a close game. I don't think it is going to happen and that game looks like it will be played. But this is more a general question, has a situation like that ever happened, and how would the OHSAA count it? Would they give West Toronto a forfeit if they were the ones to cancel, or would the OHSAA treat it as an Iggy bye week, which would put them back in the mix.
 
SVillegrad said:
Well I guess there is the possibility of West Toronto Prep cancelling the Week 10 game (it's been said on here that Ignatius would never purposely cancel at the last minute on somebody). That would be a little fishy though, especially since West Toronto just gave Warren Harding a close game. I don't think it is going to happen and that game looks like it will be played. But this is more a general question, has a situation like that ever happened, and how would the OHSAA count it? Would they give West Toronto a forfeit if they were the ones to cancel, or would the OHSAA treat it as an Iggy bye week, which would put them back in the mix.
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Cancellations are treated as open weeks.

A cancellation is rather unlikely, but at best, Iggy would finish at 20.5364 if it went down like that.
 
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Mr. Slippery said:
Cancellations are treated as open weeks.
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I know they are, but this would be a different scenario because this doesn't look like a team that would be putting their kids in danger for playing the game. Granted Warren Harding is not Iggy, but Warren Harding is still a quality, Division II playoff team that they just hung with. Before anybody accuses me of saying that West Toronto is going to cancel, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that in a case where a team cancels on another with the only logical reason for the cancellation is to help the other team make the playoffs, I think the OHSAA should treat it as a forfeit instead of an open week.
 
Mr. Slippery said:
Cancellations are treated as open weeks.

A cancellation is rather unlikely, but at best, Iggy would finish at 20.5364 if it went down like that.
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Yeah, didn't add it up. But if that's the case they probably would only go back up to 2 percent, so its moot in this case anyway.
 
Just spitballing on these percentages, but this is roughly what I would put the odds of the 6 remaining teams who are still alive for the final 3 spots:

Jackson: 99 percent (might as well count them as a lock)

Medina: 65 percent (win and in, but still even has a couple paths with a loss).

Cleveland Heights: 60 percent (win and in and still has a longshot path with a loss).

Brunswick: 40 percent (a win should do it, but there are a couple scenarios where they could win and still be out).

Stow: 5 percent (still alive and while it wouldn't take some so inconceivable scenarios to make me say they are done, it still will take a minor miracle).

Strongsville: 1 percent (Mentor has the outright GCC title to play for so they probably play everybody for a half, build up a 3-4 TD lead then rest everybody. That may give Strongsville's starters a 2 percent chance to come back on Mentor's backups in the second half. But I'm dropping it back down to 1 percent because a win, unlikely as it is to begin, still doesn't guarantee a spot ... and even if it does, they will just go right back against Mentor in week 11 and lose by 40-plus, lol).
 
Being a home team in a neutral stadium second round can sometimes mean not having to sit in an ice storm blowing tiny ice particles in your face at 40 miles per hour (Brunswick) lol. As a fan, I'm willing to suffer the elements to support my team, but there are limits. Sitting in the visitors stand in Brunswick last year in the second half of the game with Mentor was literally Chinese torture. I felt sorry for the band who couldn't get up and move to the home stand to survive it. It coincided with the second half collapse of our team, but they weren't physically ready to go the distance anyway. They were a finesse team with no depth and questionable conditioning getting pummeled with injuries and pellets of blinding, painful ice. So if we win, it would be nice not to have to wear goggles in the second round matchup! Better still, it would be even nicer to be back in our old region 2 where its easier to progress to a semi to play only one of Mentor or St. Edward than needing to beat both with a new coach and a young team just to get out of the region. Life in R1 is like a box of chocolates...;-)

WHERE CHAMPIONS ARE MADE AND SUCCESS IS TRADITION
 
Well I was wrong about St. I getting in, thought they would beat X, but weather conditions can effect a game.

It's interesting how things will end up McK a win over Mas should put them in #2, but a loss puts them in #3 or #4. Ed's could drop to 4, but that would take a lot of unusual things to happen. It will be fun to watch out how 6, 7 & 8 plays out this next weekend. Should be some great high school games.
 
EagleSE said:
Well I was wrong about St. I getting in, thought they would beat X, but weather conditions can effect a game.

It's interesting how things will end up McK a win over Mas should put them in #2, but a loss puts them in #3 or #4. Ed's could drop to 4, but that would take a lot of unusual things to happen. It will be fun to watch out how 6, 7 & 8 plays out this next weekend. Should be some great high school games.
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6, 7, and 8 are the battles to see who can avoid running clocks
 
JJBulldog said:
Being a home team in a neutral stadium second round can sometimes mean not having to sit in an ice storm blowing tiny ice particles in your face at 40 miles per hour (Brunswick) lol. As a fan, I'm willing to suffer the elements to support my team, but there are limits. Sitting in the visitors stand in Brunswick last year in the second half of the game with Mentor was literally Chinese torture. I felt sorry for the band who couldn't get up and move to the home stand to survive it. It coincided with the second half collapse of our team, but they weren't physically ready to go the distance anyway. They were a finesse team with no depth and questionable conditioning getting pummeled with injuries and pellets of blinding, painful ice. So if we win, it would be nice not to have to wear goggles in the second round matchup! Better still, it would be even nicer to be back in our old region 2 where its easier to progress to a semi to play only one of Mentor or St. Edward than needing to beat both with a new coach and a young team just to get out of the region. Life in R1 is like a box of chocolates...;-)

WHERE CHAMPIONS ARE MADE AND SUCCESS IS TRADITION
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Could be McKinley vs St. Edward Rd 2. Guessing at Byers an Reg final in Euclid again. If you guys get the 2 and we at 3, man those Home stands suck as bad,maybe worse than Brunswick visitors. You want the 3 just so u can sit on the west side. Lol.
 
Stow's path to the 8 seed looks like it includes all of the following:

1) Stow victory over Cuyahoga Falls (94% likelihood according to Pasteur)
2) Cleveland Heights loss to Maple (27%)
3) North Royalton over Nordonia (48%)
4) Twinsburg over Hudson (7%)

In other words, right around 1% likelihood. Barring the incredibly unlikely scenarios above taking place, looks like the final spot will be decided in the Medina/Brunswick game. Determining the 8th seed will be the following:

If Medina wins or Heights loses, Heights will be the 8 seed
If Cleveland Heights/Brunswick win, Brunswick will be the 8 seed
 
My projections:

1. Mentor (10-0) 39.700
2. St Edward (9-1) 34.283
3. Euclid (8-2) 29.696
4. McKinley (8-2) 29.350
5. Solon (8-2) 28.800
6. Jackson (8-2) 25.700
7. Medina (7-3) 25.500
8. Cleveland Heights (9-1) 24.750

We could see as many as four or five regular season rematches out of the seven Region 1 playoff games. But my projections include all fresh match ups in the first round, which would be more interesting. A couple Fed/GCC showdowns. Reigniting an old LEL matchup with Mentor/Heights. Eds/Medina...not much to say about that. I imagine it might be the first time the two would have ever played before, just a guess.
 
There is lot of good teams in the region. Lot of ppl expect Mentor and Eds.

Eds playing Detroit Cass Tech, Erie Prep, Elder, Winton Woods, even a bad Moeller would beat Elyria 100 to 0.
Mentor probably would of beat everyone Eds played an they did Iggy an Clarkson...but Mentor plays Elyria, Shaker, and a few other GCC teams that are ok, then Solon Euclid, they did whoop them.

think that Eds harder schedule playing helps get them ready more than any team in region.

Anything can happen but just a thought
 
Hank THE Tank said:
There is lot of good teams in the region. Lot of ppl expect Mentor and Eds.

Eds playing Detroit Cass Tech, Erie Prep, Elder, Winton Woods, even a bad Moeller would beat Elyria 100 to 0.
Mentor probably would of beat everyone Eds played an they did Iggy an Clarkson...but Mentor plays Elyria, Shaker, and a few other GCC teams that are ok, then Solon Euclid, they did whoop them.

think that Eds harder schedule playing helps get them ready more than any team in region.

Anything can happen but just a thought
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Have you been drinking like Frank the Tank?
 
@Hank THE Tank
Those two are solely the owners of Region 1 until someone can pry it from their hands. I don't see how it could possibly happen this year. Or next. But until Hoban wins another State Championship, adds more boys to their enrollment and has to compete in Region 1, then we could see a different Region 1 winner.
 
bagobones said:
Have you been drinking like Frank the Tank?
[/
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halifax8 said:
@Hank THE Tank
Those two are solely the owners of Region 1 until someone can pry it from their hands. I don't see how it could possibly happen this year. Or next. But until Hoban wins another State Championship, adds more boys to their enrollment and has to compete in Region 1, then we could see a different Region 1 winner.
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Agree with u.
 
I think almost everyone would be shocked if it's not Ed's and Mentor. Two best teams without question. Now do I think Ed's schedule will help? 100% Mentor hasn't played a game that mattered since the Iggy game. When they meet in 4 weeks that will be almost 3 months since they had any meaningful snaps. I am not saying Mentor is going to lose just when you go that long without a meaningful game it may cause some issues. Either way should be a great game. The winner should be the favorite to win it all.
 
mailman112 said:
I think almost everyone would be shocked if it's not Ed's and Mentor. Two best teams without question. Now do I think Ed's schedule will help? 100% Mentor hasn't played a game that mattered since the Iggy game. When they meet in 4 weeks that will be almost 3 months since they had any meaningful snaps. I am not saying Mentor is going to lose just when you go that long without a meaningful game it may cause some issues. Either way should be a great game. The winner should be the favorite to win it all.
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True to a point but it isn't like Eds has played a bunch of juggernauts either in the 2nd half

Solon and Euclid could be 4/5 in region 1 when it's all said and done. Are they elite like mentor and Eds? Of course not. But maybe Mentor made them look very bad because Mentor is very good. Crazy I know
 
MentorGrad2002 said:
True to a point but it isn't like Eds has played a bunch of juggernauts either in the 2nd half

Solon and Euclid could be 4/5 in region 1 when it's all said and done. Are they elite like mentor and Eds? Of course not. But maybe Mentor made them look very bad because Mentor is very good. Crazy I know
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mailman112 said:
I think almost everyone would be shocked if it's not Ed's and Mentor. Two best teams without question. Now do I think Ed's schedule will help? 100% Mentor hasn't played a game that mattered since the Iggy game. When they meet in 4 weeks that will be almost 3 months since they had any meaningful snaps. I am not saying Mentor is going to lose just when you go that long without a meaningful game it may cause some issues. Either way should be a great game. The winner should be the favorite to win it all.
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Agree winner should be heavily favored
 
MentorGrad2002 said:
True to a point but it isn't like Eds has played a bunch of juggernauts either in the 2nd half

Solon and Euclid could be 4/5 in region 1 when it's all said and done. Are they elite like mentor and Eds? Of course not. But maybe Mentor made them look very bad because Mentor is very good. Crazy I know
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Yeah. Just saying Elder,WW,Cass Tech,NCA, play some big recruits(which are overrated),but most these would be runner up in the GCC. Even a bad Moeller team woulda spanked Elyria Shaker an maybe a few other. Not saying Mentor woulda lost cause they hell of a team an woulda probably ran table too but a few changes last year, us playing big physical teams by the time we got back to you guys after first dew plays didn't really have problem with Potter or the big OL. All great players juat think it helps to a point. Still got to play and will be a great one. Wonder if we be in Euclid again?
 
Hank THE Tank said:
Yeah. Just saying Elder,WW,Cass Tech,NCA, play some big recruits(which are overrated),but most these would be runner up in the GCC. Even a bad Moeller team woulda spanked Elyria Shaker an maybe a few other. Not saying Mentor woulda lost cause they hell of a team an woulda probably ran table too but a few changes last year, us playing big physical teams by the time we got back to you guys after first dew plays didn't really have problem with Potter or the big OL. All great players juat think it helps to a point. Still got to play and will be a great one. Wonder if we be in Euclid again?
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Ed's has definitely played a tougher schedule. Elder for sure would be no. 2 in the GCC. Then Cathedral Prep, Winton Woods and Cass Tech are comparable to Euclid and Solon. The team from Maryland is probably comparable to Medina/Brunswick/Strongsville group. I'm not sure about Moeller. I actually don't think they would automatically beat Shaker (which isn't as bad as its record ... though same can be said for Moeller). Buchtel is probably right on par with Shaker.

They both played Iggy and Clarkson, so that's a wash.

Ed's hasn't played an Elyria bad team, so the difference between Elder (Eds) and Elyria (Mentor) is the only glaring difference in the schedules, imo.
 
St Eds hardly has a national elite schedule, but it is stronger than Mentor's. The GCC is probably the best/deepest big school league in Ohio, or pretty darn close. But even at that, there is obviously a huge drop off between Mentor and the 2nd best team. Elder is much better than Euclid. Winton Woods is better too. Cathedral Prep, NCA, and Cass Tech are right there with Euclid/Solon.

Will schedule be a factor in a potential rematch? Maybe. I don't think blowing teams out for 8 straight weeks (likely 10 including the first two playoff games) is quite as helpful compared to having a game or two mixed in there against an elite team where you experience some struggle. When Mentor/Eds hook up on November 22, it will be nearly three months since Mentor played a meaningful down in the 4th quarter. I can't say that it is a good thing. It has been nice to see Mentor playing consistently well though.
 
SVillegrad said:
Ed's has definitely played a tougher schedule. Elder for sure would be no. 2 in the GCC. Then Cathedral Prep, Winton Woods and Cass Tech are comparable to Euclid and Solon. The team from Maryland is probably comparable to Medina/Brunswick/Strongsville group. I'm not sure about Moeller. I actually don't think they would automatically beat Shaker (which isn't as bad as its record ... though same can be said for Moeller). Buchtel is probably right on par with Shaker.

They both played Iggy and Clarkson, so that's a wash.

Ed's hasn't played an Elyria bad team, so the difference between Elder (Eds) and Elyria (Mentor) is the only glaring difference in the schedules, imo.
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Fair enough We're going to have to agree to disagree on this one a few of them, few of them on the fence.

Jusy wonder if one has advantage over other..

Also to kinda factor in like this week that DC team has Oklahoma, A&M,UMass, ECU an other kids. Cass had bunch power 5 kids, then other Michigan,OSU, LSU, Iowa St, few Louisville, an some other kids along the way....now I know a few over rated, an some GCC kids under recruited and it's a team game but just think also those individual matches in the box and outside can help prepare kids more being harder competition and become more physical.

( This is No insult to the GCC who has many good teams and best all around conference in NE Ohio)
 
cardzfan1234 said:
St Eds hardly has a national elite schedule, but it is stronger than Mentor's. The GCC is probably the best/deepest big school league in Ohio, or pretty darn close. But even at that, there is obviously a huge drop off between Mentor and the 2nd best team. Elder is much better than Euclid. Winton Woods is better too. Cathedral Prep, NCA, and Cass Tech are right there with Euclid/Solon.

Will schedule be a factor in a potential rematch? Maybe. I don't think blowing teams out for 8 straight weeks (likely 10 including the first two playoff games) is quite as helpful compared to having a game or two mixed in there against an elite team where you experience some struggle. When Mentor/Eds hook up on November 22, it will be nearly three months since Mentor played a meaningful down in the 4th quarter. I can't say that it is a good thing. It has been nice to see Mentor playing consistently well though.
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Ty for answer. Just wonder how ppl thinkn
 
cardzfan1234 said:
St Eds hardly has a national elite schedule, but it is stronger than Mentor's. The GCC is probably the best/deepest big school league in Ohio, or pretty darn close. But even at that, there is obviously a huge drop off between Mentor and the 2nd best team. Elder is much better than Euclid. Winton Woods is better too. Cathedral Prep, NCA, and Cass Tech are right there with Euclid/Solon.

Will schedule be a factor in a potential rematch? Maybe. I don't think blowing teams out for 8 straight weeks (likely 10 including the first two playoff games) is quite as helpful compared to having a game or two mixed in there against an elite team where you experience some struggle. When Mentor/Eds hook up on November 22, it will be nearly three months since Mentor played a meaningful down in the 4th quarter. I can't say that it is a good thing. It has been nice to see Mentor playing consistently well though.
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Yes, the Eagles OOS schedule isn't nearly as beefy as it has been in past years. For good reason too. While this years version of the Eagles is playing pretty damn good right now, they are not as stacked from a talent perspective as some of the prior state champion versions. That is what it takes to compete with some of the top tier national programs theses days, which have become transfer factories littered with 4 and 5 star talent. The AD has been smart with the OOS games they've been getting on the schedule the last few years, and we haven't been going beyond our pay grade. While some of these "academy" schools have double digit FBS players, they are often not as well coached and have very little depth beyond the starting 22. So it gives us the benefit of having our players compete against a higher caliber athlete, but likely coming away with a victory.

This year, Elder and WW are better than any non-Mentor GCC team by a comfortable margin. Cathedral Prep is solid, but unspectacular. Cass Tech is way down from previous versions, but still has considerable speed and talent. Though to get a gauge on this against National Christian Academy team that is coming into town this week. They have several FBS commits, but have played a who's who of nobodies. They beat Steubenville in a shootout, but have lost to a DC public school.
 
EaglePride01 said:
Yes, the Eagles OOS schedule isn't nearly as beefy as it has been in past years. For good reason too. While this years version of the Eagles is playing pretty damn good right now, they are not as stacked from a talent perspective as some of the prior state champion versions. That is what it takes to compete with some of the top tier national programs theses days, which have become transfer factories littered with 4 and 5 star talent. The AD has been smart with the OOS games they've been getting on the schedule the last few years, and we haven't been going beyond our pay grade. While some of these "academy" schools have double digit FBS players, they are often not as well coached and have very little depth beyond the starting 22. So it gives us the benefit of having our players compete against a higher caliber athlete, but likely coming away with a victory.

This year, Elder and WW are better than any non-Mentor GCC team by a comfortable margin. Cathedral Prep is solid, but unspectacular. Cass Tech is way down from previous versions, but still has considerable speed and talent. Though to get a gauge on this against National Christian Academy team that is coming into town this week. They have several FBS commits, but have played a who's who of nobodies. They beat Steubenville in a shootout, but have lost to a DC public school.
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Don't give me that 4 5 star talent . Eds had 3 - 4 star recruits this decade an won 4 state championship in OH not North Dakota, Ohio......An NO five stars.

Team talented an has No weakness. Just not super deep
 
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