The Official 2019 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Monclova Steve said:
For me, this is not an easy choice at all. Peraza has had seasons in which he has hit decently, but he hasn't exactly covered himself with glory offensively during his career -- .275 BA, .313 OBP, .641 OPS. Defensively, he hasn't won a lot of plaudits either, leading the NL in errors at SS in 2018 for example. I'm not sure that giving him the everyday SS job is going to be a move that takes the Reds to the postseason.

Of course, Galvis isn't exactly Barry Larkin either. His comparable stats to Peraza's are less attractive -- .248/.291/.674 -- but not by a whole lot. Defensively is where the difference lies between the two. A look at both players' defensive stats shows a pretty big difference between the two.

I imagine the Reds are going to use both next year. After all, both can play around the infield wherever needed. At trading deadline time, if Galvis hasn't been the answer, then a goodbye is easily done.
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Peraza is a super two player. He will likely make 4.5M next season. He isn't worth anywhere near that unless he starts. He isn't good enough to start everyday at SS on a championship caliber team.

If the Reds are going for a championship next season, he should be traded/released/non tendered.
 
Monclova Steve said:
Well, Galvis has played a total of 10 innings in the outfield in the last 6 seasons (in 2 games in 2017). Other than that, he has not played the OF at all since filling in in 2013. I'm not sure that qualifies as "playes" infield and outfield.
But, define it however you want. I just think that folks on here like to hear the facts as they exist.
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Thanks for the clairfication, so he's played as little outfield as Derek Dietrich. Then again Peraza has played very little outfield in his career, he CAN, but generally in a pinch.
 
Red14 said:
Thanks for the clairfication, so he's played as little outfield as Derek Dietrich.
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Dietrich has played 49 games in the outfield since 2016.
Galvis has played 10 innings there since 2013.

I don't share your conclusion that Galvis "plays" the outfield. Perhaps others on here will disagree with me.
 
Logically it does not make sense for someone to say "We need to get rid of Billy Hamilton, his offense is a liability" and also say "We need to play Galvis in front of Peraza because of defense". I will always favor playing the better offensive player, unless the defense is so egregiously bad that it has to be addressed.

Example: Galvis and Peraza both played full-time SS in 2018.

Galvis was 2nd among qualified SS with a .986 fielding percentage (9 errors in 160 games). Peraza was 23rd, with .962 and 22 errors in 158 games. Clearly Galvis is the superior glove. But how many runs did those 13 errors cost the Reds? I have no idea, but I bet it is less than 13.

Also for 2018, Galvis hit .248, with .299 OBP, 13 HR, 8 SB, 62 Runs. Peraza hit .288 with .326 OBP, 14 HR, 23 SB, 85 Runs. Give me Peraza please.
 
wolves82 said:
Logically it does not make sense for someone to say "We need to get rid of Billy Hamilton, his offense is a liability" and also say "We need to play Galvis in front of Peraza because of defense". I will always favor playing the better offensive player, unless the defense is so egregiously bad that it has to be addressed.

Example: Galvis and Peraza both played full-time SS in 2018.

Galvis was 2nd among qualified SS with a .986 fielding percentage (9 errors in 160 games). Peraza was 23rd, with .962 and 22 errors in 158 games. Clearly Galvis is the superior glove. But how many runs did those 13 errors cost the Reds? I have no idea, but I bet it is less than 13.

Also for 2018, Galvis hit .248, with .299 OBP, 13 HR, 8 SB, 62 Runs. Peraza hit .288 with .326 OBP, 14 HR, 23 SB, 85 Runs. Give me Peraza please.
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In 2019, Galvis has been the better offensive player. He has better numbers across the board than Peraza, especially in HRs (18 to Peraza's 6). He has a better BA (.267/.242), OBP (.299/.288), runs (55/31), RBI (54/32).
Since, in your own estimation, Galvis is "clearly" the superior glove, then I'm not sure I can share your conclusion of playing Peraza ahead of Galvis --at SS anyway. Certainly either could play 2B as well.
 
Monclova Steve said:
In 2019, Galvis has been the better offensive player. He has better numbers across the board than Peraza, especially in HRs (18 to Peraza's 6). He has a better BA (.267/.242), OBP (.299/.288), runs (55/31), RBI (54/32).
Since, in your own estimation, Galvis is "clearly" the superior glove, then I'm not sure I can share your conclusion of playing Peraza ahead of Galvis --at SS anyway. Certainly either could play 2B as well.
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Galvis is able to be had for 5.5M next year if the Reds pick up his option. Peraza will likely cost 4M.

Is Galvis worth the extra 1.5M?
 
Indiandad said:
Galvis is able to be had for 5.5M next year if the Reds pick up his option. Peraza will likely cost 4M.

Is Galvis worth the extra 1.5M?
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I'm not in love with either of them right now as the everyday SS for next season. Just like the Reds, I'll be watching Galvis closely the rest of this year before I make up my mind.
Whew! Dodged that question, didn't I, Indiandad?:giggle:
 
Well, Aquino had a HR. Galvis got a couple hits. The Reds scored some runs.
I believe in looking at the bright side of things. Of course, the game isn't over so there's time to come back -- or not.

That's at least better than just saying we got our asses whipped.
 
Monclova Steve said:
Well, Aquino had a HR. Galvis got a couple hits. The Reds scored some runs.
I believe in looking at the bright side of things. Of course, the game isn't over so there's time to come back -- or not.

That's at least better than just saying we got our asses whipped.
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Losing by 10 in Baseball is an whippin!
 
SMARTY22 said:
Losing by 10 in Baseball is an whippin!
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The great thing about yesterday is how rare it's been this season. For the most part, this team has been in most games this season. The last 3 years, we've got pounded like yesterday routinely.
 
Red14 said:
The great thing about yesterday is how rare it's been this season. For the most part, this team has been in most games this season. The last 3 years, we've got pounded like yesterday routinely.
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Except during the day. Day record is awful! Yesterday we also gave up a 10 spot in an inning for at least the second time this year.
 
And we begin a 4 game series with the FIRST PLACE Cardinals. Let's face it, at the start of the season, the Cubs and Brewers were projected to contend in this division. The Cardinals/ Pirates and Reds were supposed to fight it out for the bottom. The Cardinals, as much as I dislike them, just continue to grind out success. They don't have a fantastic team on paper, they really don't. And slugger Paul Goldschmidt hasn't had his typical season, although he's been better of late.
They've had injuries, they've lost their closer Hicks, and yet they just find ways to hang around.
 
You guys and Galvis, I don't get it. Yes, he has hit better this year. But he's been in the show for 7 years, 5 of them as full time starter, and he has consistently had an OBP around .290. You wanted Hamilton out of the lineup for that exact reason.

At least Red14 is consistent, he wants both Hamilton and Galvis. The rest of you, here: https://www.mlb.com/player/freddy-galvis-520471 This is who Freddy has been for 7 years.

I mean, if he is a Red, I will root for him, but I would not sign him.
 
It seemed like all year after the disastrous start every time they got within 3 games of 500 they fell apart again and would lose 4 or 5 in a row. How disappointing after going 4-2 last week getting back to within 3 games last Saturday only to lose 4 in a row and slip back to 7 games under 500. This team/organization seems to have lacked a true leader on the team that knows how to get this team fired up when necessary.
 
wolves82 said:
You guys and Galvis, I don't get it. Yes, he has hit better this year. But he's been in the show for 7 years, 5 of them as full time starter, and he has consistently had an OBP around .290. You wanted Hamilton out of the lineup for that exact reason.

At least Red14 is consistent, he wants both Hamilton and Galvis. The rest of you, here: https://www.mlb.com/player/freddy-galvis-520471 This is who Freddy has been for 7 years.

I mean, if he is a Red, I will root for him, but I would not sign him.
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Of course you don't get it. You don't understand the rationale.
You are looking only at the offensive output of each player, and according to your thoughts the best offensive player should play. However, that view doesn't take into account the OVERALL performance of each player. Perhaps the most accurate statistic here is WAR.
Neither player is a wizard offensively. Conveniently, you only present us with Galvis' numbers ( not impressive, I grant you). However, are Peraza's much better? Not by much.
Defensively, the difference is as wide as it could be.
Peraza -- in 3 of his 4 seasons with the Reds (2016, 2017, 2019) has been selected to start at SS for a TOTAL of 95 games. At least to me, that doesn't indicate that he's a clear choice to man that position.
In 2018, the year that he was given the position as starting SS, he played 156 games there. The result? He led the majors in errors and had the worst fielding % of all MLB starting SS's!

Galvis, OTOH, has excelled defensively everywhere he has gone. He has been the starting SS for his team in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. He has been a finalist for the Gold Glove in 2 of those years.

No, this is not a conversation having anything to do with Billy Hamilton. This is a conversation about the comparative values of two players at the SS position. Peraza is -- by a little bit -- better offensively (unless you take the most current stats into consideration. However, defensively, the difference is so large that even the Reds -- when given the opportunity to do so over the past couple of years -- have decided against giving him the SS job and have picked up Galvis.

Just to try to take the mano v. mano debate out of this, I mentioned WAR earlier for each player, respectively. For their careers, Peraza has a WAR of 1.0. Galvis' WAR is 7.2.

Thanks for this, wolves82. Researching all this has changed my mind from thinking this was pretty much a tossup to now thinking it's a no-brainer.

Best of all worlds would be that the Reds re-sign Iglesias and both Peraza and Galvis are on board as well.
 
wolves82 said:
You guys and Galvis, I don't get it. Yes, he has hit better this year. But he's been in the show for 7 years, 5 of them as full time starter, and he has consistently had an OBP around .290. You wanted Hamilton out of the lineup for that exact reason.

At least Red14 is consistent, he wants both Hamilton and Galvis. The rest of you, here: https://www.mlb.com/player/freddy-galvis-520471 This is who Freddy has been for 7 years.

I mean, if he is a Red, I will root for him, but I would not sign him.
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I don't know that the Reds are in or out on Galvis, this is all about flexibility and options. Galvis was released by the Blue Jays, so the Reds essentially pick him up this year for nothing, pay the rest of his 2019 contract (pro-rated). For 2020, they have the CHOICE to pay him $5.5 mill, or just give him $1 mill to go away. In baseball money that's cheap for a veteran.
This allows the Reds at least some leverage with Iglesias. If you're Iglesias agent, after this season and looking the Reds (if Galvis didn't exist) and Perazas numbers and you'd probably start with a minimum 3 year deal at $20-$30 mil. And who knows, maybe another team likes Iglesias enough to bring him in. The Reds obviously don't have a shortstop in the triple A or double A levels they are ready to plug in full time, so you need options.

I think many people continue to over-estimate the value of the offensive numbers. Again, as I've pointed out many times over the years, you need guys who play catcher-SS-2B and CF who are very good defensively. Those players generally 4-5 at bats per game, but they may affect a game even more as they get 8-10-12 opportunities to affect a game defensively, good or bad.
It appears Derek Dietrich's not able to play now, the Reds saw an opportunity to pick up a veteran guy pretty cheap, who can play multiple positions. He's not a great on base guy, but he does other things that bring value to the team.
 
Monclova Steve said:
Of course you don't get it. You don't understand the rationale.
You are looking only at the offensive output of each player, and according to your thoughts the best offensive player should play. However, that view doesn't take into account the OVERALL performance of each player. Perhaps the most accurate statistic here is WAR.
Neither player is a wizard offensively. Conveniently, you only present us with Galvis' numbers ( not impressive, I grant you). However, are Peraza's much better? Not by much.
Defensively, the difference is as wide as it could be.
Peraza -- in 3 of his 4 seasons with the Reds (2016, 2017, 2019) has been selected to start at SS for a TOTAL of 95 games. At least to me, that doesn't indicate that he's a clear choice to man that position.
In 2018, the year that he was given the position as starting SS, he played 156 games there. The result? He led the majors in errors and had the worst fielding % of all MLB starting SS's!

Galvis, OTOH, has excelled defensively everywhere he has gone. He has been the starting SS for his team in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. He has been a finalist for the Gold Glove in 2 of those years.

No, this is not a conversation having anything to do with Billy Hamilton. This is a conversation about the comparative values of two players at the SS position. Peraza is -- by a little bit -- better offensively (unless you take the most current stats into consideration. However, defensively, the difference is so large that even the Reds -- when given the opportunity to do so over the past couple of years -- have decided against giving him the SS job and have picked up Galvis.

Just to try to take the mano v. mano debate out of this, I mentioned WAR earlier for each player, respectively. For their careers, Peraza has a WAR of 1.0. Galvis' WAR is 7.2.

Thanks for this, wolves82. Researching all this has changed my mind from thinking this was pretty much a tossup to now thinking it's a no-brainer.

Best of all worlds would be that the Reds re-sign Iglesias and both Peraza and Galvis are on board as well.
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Nice...looking at the players defensive value...been my contention all along...
 
MoeDude said:
It seemed like all year after the disastrous start every time they got within 3 games of 500 they fell apart again and would lose 4 or 5 in a row. How disappointing after going 4-2 last week getting back to within 3 games last Saturday only to lose 4 in a row and slip back to 7 games under 500. This team/organization seems to have lacked a true leader on the team that knows how to get this team fired up when necessary.
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Moe you summed up the 2019 season for the Reds. The 1-8 start doomed this team from the beginning, they've just not ever been able to put an extended win streak together. I mean, you look at us on paper vs. every other team in the division and we're right there. Now I'd say the Cubs daily lineup has more thunder in it than us, but I'll take our starting rotation and even bullpen over theirs.
Here's a little concern for me moving forward. The Reds have one of the worst records in baseball in day games. And it's concerning in this way, many times, these day games are on Sundays and "get away" days. I think this completely comes down to focus and even lineup construction. Are we more concerned with just getting that day's game over with and going to the next city or home rather than winning? Also, Bell tries to "buy" an extra off days for guys, or tries to get part timers some playing time on these days as well. So you're playing an inferior lineup many times on those days. I believe the Reds are something like 16-31 in day games. That's big. If the Reds were .500 in day games, they'd be near first place and right in the mix for the wild card.
 
Red14 said:
I don't know that the Reds are in or out on Galvis, this is all about flexibility and options. Galvis was released by the Blue Jays, so the Reds essentially pick him up this year for nothing, pay the rest of his 2019 contract (pro-rated). For 2020, they have the CHOICE to pay him $5.5 mill, or just give him $1 mill to go away. In baseball money that's cheap for a veteran.
This allows the Reds at least some leverage with Iglesias. If you're Iglesias agent, after this season and looking the Reds (if Galvis didn't exist) and Perazas numbers and you'd probably start with a minimum 3 year deal at $20-$30 mil. And who knows, maybe another team likes Iglesias enough to bring him in. The Reds obviously don't have a shortstop in the triple A or double A levels they are ready to plug in full time, so you need options.

I think many people continue to over-estimate the value of the offensive numbers. Again, as I've pointed out many times over the years, you need guys who play catcher-SS-2B and CF who are very good defensively. Those players generally 4-5 at bats per game, but they may affect a game even more as they get 8-10-12 opportunities to affect a game defensively, good or bad.
It appears Derek Dietrich's not able to play now, the Reds saw an opportunity to pick up a veteran guy pretty cheap, who can play multiple positions. He's not a great on base guy, but he does other things that bring value to the team.
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Your math is wrong. SS, 2B, CF, C should get 15-20 at bats a game combined. Those same 4 defensive positions will likely field 4-5 balls per WEEK combined that only an elite defender could make an out on. The rest of the balls hit to their position an average defender can make the play.
4 elite defenders at 4 positions hurt your teams chances at winning if they are also not above average offensively.
 
Indiandad said:
Your math is wrong. SS, 2B, CF, C should get 15-20 at bats a game combined. Those same 4 defensive positions will likely field 4-5 balls per WEEK combined that only an elite defender could make an out on. The rest of the balls hit to their position an average defender can make the play.
4 elite defenders at 4 positions hurt your teams chances at winning if they are also not above average offensively.
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Indiandad, I disagree. This isn't slow pitch softball. If you want to be a contender, a championship level team, you need above average players up the middle, especially at catcher. In order of importance for me in those positions....
1. defense
2. flexibility
3. offense
 
Red14 said:
If you want to be a contender, a championship level team, you need above average players up the middle, especially at catcher.
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Can you cite some overwhelming examples to support your claim? I would expect no less than 4/5 of contending teams for the last 5 years to be above average at catcher, 2nd, SS and CF. Thank you in advance!
 
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