2019 MVL Projections

freedom_isnt_free

freedom_isnt_free

Member
The Miami Valley League is officially back after the spring sports wrap up so what do you guys think as far as projections go? Hard to not see Troy as the easy favorite but I really like the progress that Puckett made at Butler in his first season. Could Butler be the dark horse in 2019?
 
 
freedom_isnt_free said:
The Miami Valley League is officially back after the spring sports wrap up so what do you guys think as far as projections go? Hard to not see Troy as the easy favorite but I really like the progress that Puckett made at Butler in his first season. Could Butler be the dark horse in 2019?
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Puckett has done a great job but the only thing that might work against him is the numbers from next years seniors and juniors. Next years sophomore class is good and some of them got varsity time this year so could be interesting. If they contend this year Puckett is the man and the rest of the league might be chasing Butler for awhile. But know one thing he will have them fight ready every Friday.


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Troy, Tipp, Butler, Piqua in that order then everyone else.
Troy is the team to beat until proven otherwise, Tipp has proven that it can beat Butler even if they aren’t as talented. And Tipp will be much improved from last year. Butler loses a lot but will still be competitive. Piqua lost a lot as well but they always seem to be competitive. Troy loses probably more than anyone, but I expect them to still be good.
 
troy is definitely the team to beat, but it should be a fun year for the new year. Troy has to replace some dudes, which could make this league interesting.
 
Butler gets Troy early in Week 2 with Troy losing so much talent I wonder if that’s an advantage for Butler?Tipp has done a good job of beating Butler but I do think losing Derge is going to be a bigger impact than people think. I have no evidence of that other than a guy feel.

On another note I just saw the Butler schedule for 2019 and they don’t play Sidney? How does that work?
 
freedom_isnt_free said:
Butler gets Troy early in Week 2 with Troy losing so much talent I wonder if that’s an advantage for Butler?Tipp has done a good job of beating Butler but I do think losing Derge is going to be a bigger impact than people think. I have no evidence of that other than a guy feel.

On another note I just saw the Butler schedule for 2019 and they don’t play Sidney? How does that work?
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What teams do they play instead of playing each other? One or the other may still be under contract with another team.
 
PATSFB said:
What teams do they play instead of playing each other? One or the other may still be under contract with another team.
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Assuming the website is right which I would assume it is they play:

Harrison
Troy
Wilmington
West Carrollton
Piqua
Xenia
Fairborn
Stebbins
Greenville
Tippecanoe

Must be the Wilmington contract.
 
It will be a lame 9 game league schedule and may have some big impact on playoff points, especially for Troy. DIII region is pretty weak so it shouldn’t be s problematic for the rest of them. Teams that are locked into contracts will finish them and then only have one out of conference game unless the league commish wants to adjust this.
As far as top dog...Troy. And you can stop. Piqua will be strong with a couple big young backs that run the ball very well. Butler was solid last year but they lose so much talent...so Hyatt you can stop playing like 2020 is the Purple Reign. Puckett is going to earn that check this year. Tipp will be a dumpster fire if they mess up this hire, and still may not be able to rebound if they don’t acknowledge it takes more than 5 coaches. Sidney will have athletes as usual but their OC will have lineman throwing the ball and their DC will be out coached, so you can count them out. Let’s hope Fairborn has a resurgence and some of the other bottom dwellers get their act together or this league gets bad pretty fast.
 
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MVL - Returning Upperclassmen - seniors & juniors for the 2019 Season. Male Enrollment on the far left. Total returning upperclassmen to the Right of the team.(Based on 2018 Season Rosters)

513 Troy – 49 – 24 Seniors/25 Juniors - Lost 24 to graduation
381 Piqua- 39 – 16 Seniors/23 Juniors – Lost 17 to graduation
421 Sidney – 39 – 18 Seniors/21 Juniors – Lost 15 to graduation
508 Xenia – 37 – 19 Seniors/18 Juniors – Lost 12 to graduation
463 Stebbins – 31 – 12 Seniors/19 Juniors – Lost 10 to graduation
315 Greenville – 29 – 11 Seniors/18 Juniors – Lost 11 to graduation
296 Tippecanoe – 28 – 10 Seniors/18 Juniors – Lost 20 to graduation
354 West Carrollton – 22 – 12 Seniors/10 Juniors – Lost 3 to graduation
440 Fairborn – 20 – 7 Seniors/13 Juniors – Lost 9 to graduation
385 Butler – 13 – 6 Seniors/7 Juniors – Lost 19 to graduation
 
FeartheRooster said:
It will be a lame 9 game league schedule and may have some big impact on playoff points, especially for Troy. DIII region is pretty weak so it shouldn’t be s problematic for the rest of them. Teams that are locked into contracts will finish them and then only have one out of conference game unless the league commish wants to adjust this.
As far as top dog...Troy. And you can stop. Piqua will be strong with a couple big young backs that run the ball very well. Butler was solid last year but they lose so much talent...so Hyatt you can stop playing like 2020 is the Purple Reign. Puckett is going to earn that check this year. Tipp will be a dumpster fire if they mess up this hire, and still may not be able to rebound if they don’t acknowledge it takes more than 5 coaches. Sidney will have athletes as usual but their OC will have lineman throwing the ball and their DC will be out coached, so you can count them out. Let’s hope Fairborn has a resurgence and some of the other bottom dwellers get their act together or this league gets bad pretty fast.
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We could be back to the GMVC days when we have a 10-0 team and not make the playoffs. Especially if the bottom feeders stay the way they are already.


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BleedPurple&Gold said:
We could be back to the GMVC days when we have a 10-0 team and not make the playoffs. Especially if the bottom feeders stay the way they are already.


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It may be a useless cry for help, but some of these communities either need to invest in their athletics more, for obvious financial reasons, or league members need to recognize the issue with playing this many league games in sub par leagues. Not every team is ever going to be a hitter, but if you get into a year where your top 4 are loaded but they beat up on themselves and don’t have any other quality wins than the bottoms of the league...you’re on the outside looking in and watching your regions pass you up year after year. But now-a-days wins can still do a lot for you, you’ll just get bounced in the first round as a 7 or 8 seed.
 
BleedPurple&Gold said:
We could be back to the GMVC days when we have a 10-0 team and not make the playoffs. Especially if the bottom feeders stay the way they are already.


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No doubt this will limit the number of teams that the MVL sends to the playoffs but I still think a 7 win team will be in especially the DIII teams of the league. The question will be whether or not that will be enough for that team to host a first round game.
 
How many of the teams in the league that win their week 1 non conference game would be a big factor in terms of playoff scenarios. Obviously you have to schedule someone you can beat that will win a lot of games.
 
Zezzo! said:
WHAT A LEAGUE!! :grouphug::help::dang::(
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It's the American Conference now in the GWOC....what's your point? Like any league it has the historically rich and the poor in terms of competitiveness. No one team rules the roost in all sports, in fact it's quite diversified in that respect. No league is perfect but this one looks like a good fit for all schools involved. With all due respect the teams near the bottom of the standings are going to have challenges regardless of league. At least in the MVL the gap isn't what it currently is in the GWOC with forced games against DI programs. The MVL offers a competitive balance better than that of the GWOC.

The teams worthy of the playoffs will be in the playoffs.
 
VBHSFB04 said:
How many of the teams in the league that win their week 1 non conference game would be a big factor in terms of playoff scenarios. Obviously you have to schedule someone you can beat that will win a lot of games.
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Even more reason to NOT schedule Northmont for the one out of conference game every year. It’s not a rivalry anymore. The Englewood/Clayton community grew and the school ballooned in numbers....Vandalia/Butler Twp. Has not grown at the same rate and doesn’t have the same numbers. I just don’t see Butler beating Northmont therefore you start every season behind the eight ball. And honestly if there is a year Butler wins it’s going to be over an awful Northmont team which is going to do anything points wise. The key will be finding a decent DII to play each year.
 
Butler is overrated. They got bounced by a Badin team in the 1st round home game of the playoffs and won 6 games. They finished 6-5. The region turned into a down Trotwood, no Bellbrook (overrated in Region in 11), and a GCL dominant playoff. Butler didn't beat any playoff teams, beat Xenia in OT 13-7, and beat Piqua 27-25.
 
Butler was very average. Not sure what frustrations are with previous coaches, but some have a love affair with new coach. They went 6-4 with a senior laden team and a few STUDS and you would think they were awesome. Will see how next year goes.
 
I guess everyone is entitled to an opinion. I don’t get the overacted comment...they actually weren’t rated and nobody expected them to win many games. They won six games and made the playoffs. Should have beaten Badin, definitely a bad loss that they need to grow from. Team is tending in the right direction and should be solid in 2 years. Don’t expect outsiders to understand the challenges that the program went through with Hyatt.
 
FeartheRooster said:
It will be a lame 9 game league schedule and may have some big impact on playoff points, especially for Troy. DIII region is pretty weak so it shouldn’t be s problematic for the rest of them. Teams that are locked into contracts will finish them and then only have one out of conference game unless the league commish wants to adjust this.
As far as top dog...Troy. And you can stop. Piqua will be strong with a couple big young backs that run the ball very well. Butler was solid last year but they lose so much talent...so Hyatt you can stop playing like 2020 is the Purple Reign. Puckett is going to earn that check this year. Tipp will be a dumpster fire if they mess up this hire, and still may not be able to rebound if they don’t acknowledge it takes more than 5 coaches. Sidney will have athletes as usual but their OC will have lineman throwing the ball and their DC will be out coached, so you can count them out. Let’s hope Fairborn has a resurgence and some of the other bottom dwellers get their act together or this league gets bad pretty fast.
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I am curious as to which D3 region you think is weak...
 
yakyak said:
DPL, now that is a football league!
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Not so fast my friend! Stebbins,West Carrollton,Fairborn,Xenia,Greenville is just as bad as 3 teams in the 5 team DPL :thumb: None of the 10 teams in the MVL would dominate the DPL in football definitely not in basketball, ABSOLUTELY will in baseball (no game would go 2 innings)!
 
JustAGuy5 said:
I am curious as to which D3 region you think is weak...
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I’m specifically speaking about region 12, but you knew that...your arrogant tone is annoying.
Butler was a 4 seed and went 6-4, show me their quality wins? They probably should have lost to Xenia and Piqua too. Piqua was down big at half and just couldn’t complete the comeback. Xenia shot themselves in the foot. That’s neither here nor there really though, all teams have those games they “could have lost” or visa versa. This region is loaded with teams that only beat 2 or 3 teams with winning records and some are 6-4 ?. I would say there are 3 legit teams in this region. Trotwood and Alter without a doubt, CJ would have been but they had to sit the stud QB after 5 for the transfer, and Wapak. The rest are paper champs.
Satisfied?
 
JustAGuy5 said:
I am curious as to which D3 region you think is weak...
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Don’t act like you don’t know what region he’s talking about. He’s referring to region 12 for the Division III schools. He is referring to in the new MVL, it will be easier for the Division III teams to get into the playoffs as opposed to the Division II teams getting into the playoffs in region 8. Region 12 typically has three, maybe four really good teams a year. Region 8 is usually pretty sound one through eight seeds. Sometimes one or two teams will be fake and shouldn’t be there. In the new MVL and having to play nine conference games, you will be encouraged to play a tough week one opponent, in less your One of those schools that are just content with saying you have a good record but just missed the playoffs. So we will find out who really wants to compete and who is content with looking like they are trying, while living a house of cards. You won’t get a pat on the back for winning five or six games with some of the cupcakes in the new conference. Heck, Will Nees will probably win 7 games minimum every year.
 
FeartheRooster said:
I’m specifically speaking about region 12, but you knew that...your arrogant tone is annoying.
Butler was a 4 seed and went 6-4, show me their quality wins? They probably should have lost to Xenia and Piqua too. Piqua was down big at half and just couldn’t complete the comeback. Xenia shot themselves in the foot. That’s neither here nor there really though, all teams have those games they “could have lost” or visa versa. This region is loaded with teams that only beat 2 or 3 teams with winning records and some are 6-4 ��. I would say there are 3 legit teams in this region. Trotwood and Alter without a doubt, CJ would have been but they had to sit the stud QB after 5 for the transfer, and Wapak. The rest are paper champs.
Satisfied?
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A team can get in at 6-4 because a lot of the teams in Region 12 all play each other. Hence the records. Teams don't dominate, besides Alter. For one to be arrogant, they first have to be good. Since we are talking about Region 12 I can rest my case correct?
 
JustAGuy5 said:
A team can get in at 6-4 because a lot of the teams in Region 12 all play each other. Hence the records. Teams don't dominate, besides Alter. For one to be arrogant, they first have to be good. Since we are talking about Region 12 I can rest my case correct?
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While those things can be correct in a sense of playing a lot of tough teams like Winton Woods or LaSalle does each year playing top programs in the state and out of state, you’re reaching here to try and make your case and you are way off. So in my opinion you can’t “rest” it. Look at the schedules and particularly Butler. They really got a hold of the ol Tecumseh Arrows. ? lol.
Tipp got the best of them and Tipp was overall below average across the board. I’m guessing youre a D3 guy so sorry to disrespect your region but it’s top heavy man.
 
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