So what if Clemson loses to Pitt, a team that UCF killed? Should Clemson still get in over a team that hasn't lost in two years? The first thing that has to happen is UCF needs to run the table. Then this discussion can get real. UCF is not that far behind the top teams in the P5. What if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and then beats Bama in the SEC championship game? Does Georgia get in after they loss to a mediocre Georgia Tech and a mediocre LSU? What is ND loses to a mediocre USC? A ND team that struggled to beat a mediocre Pitt team that UCF drilled? Does none of this matter? If some of these upsets happen, and they can happen because no one is that good except Bama, then an undefeated UCF belongs in over some of these big teams.
:laugh: Oh the transitive property, how silly.
UCF beat Pitt like a drum, ND struggled with them.
ND beat Navy like a drum, UCF struggled with them.
What does it all mean? Nothing. UCF jumped in front of Ohio St who's been playing like crap for 5 weeks now - after they finally beat a ranked team. UCF isn't getting in the Playoff. They're SOS will keep them out. Heck through all your what-if scenario's they still could lose to South Florida or Houston/Memphis.
As for the rest of your what-if's.
-Bama is in unless they lose two straight.
-Clemson is in unless they lose two straight.
-UGA is in if they beat Bama, if they lose to GaTech then LSU may get in over them instead but probably one of the two.
-Notre Dame is out if they lose, unless it comes down to ND and UCF - meaning everyone else lost.
-Michigan could still get in ahead of UCF even if they lose to Ohio St.
-Washington St is out if they lose again.
-Oklahoma is out if they lose again.
-LSU likely not getting in, but could if it comes down to them or 2-loss UGA - granted UGA having an SEC title may trump LSU's h2h win.
-Ohio St would definitely jump back in front of UCF if they beat Michigan and Northwestern.
Everyone ahead of them would have to lose at least once, if not twice for UCF to even have a chance at #4.